War and Armed conflict
The geography and modalities of wars and armed conflicts are evolving in step with the international system. While irregular wars and asymmetrical conflicts persist, high-intensity wars are multiplying, while crises are taking on new forms as a result of hybrid threats.
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South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse
In recent years, South Korea’s ascent in the global arms market has been remarkable. This surge, particularly amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, has captured the attention of security watchers worldwide.
War in Ukraine: How Does the Russian Economy Stand?
The Russian economy is weathering the war and Western sanctions: it has maintained its exports, its business sector has shown marked dynamism, and the population is managing in part thanks to state spending.
The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable
The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Pétrole : l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël nourrit des craintes autour de l’Iran
Les Etats-Unis, alliés traditionnels d’Israël, pourraient être amenés à encadrer plus strictement l’application des sanctions contre Téhéran, pays qui représentait 4 % de l’offre mondiale de brut en 2022. Voire à les durcir s’il est avéré que l’Iran a aidé à planifier les actes terroristes du Hamas.
Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a turning point in German defense policy. After thirty years of military downsizing, the Bundeswehr found itself at an extremely low capability level just as a high-intensity war involving a great power was breaking out on Europe’s doorstep for the first time since 1945. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s response was to embrace this “turning point” (Zeitenwende) by launching a major program to reequip Germany’s armed forces.
Fiscal Policy in France and Germany: Insurmountable Differences?
The state of public finances in France and Germany is often compared. Germany is considered a model of rigor, through its ability to contain its deficits and generate surpluses, particularly between 2012 and 2019, thanks to the introduction into its constitution of a debt brake mechanism.
Dimitri Minic: 'The Kremlin's credibility has been shaken'
For this Russian army specialist, at least part of the armed forces rallying behind the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, cannot be ruled out.
Dimitri Minic: 'The Russian army is influenced by beliefs that detaches it from objective reality'
According to the researcher, the failure of the Russian army in Ukraine is the result of the implementation of a theory that emerged in the 2000s, which places a central focus on 'psychological-informational' warfare rather than armed combat.
TB2 Bayraktar: Big Strategy for a Little Drone
Since 2016, the tactical drone TB2 Bayraktar—“standard bearer” in Turkish—has received considerable media attention, particularly during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. Thanks to Azerbaijan’s victory over its neighbor Armenia, the drone, manufactured by Baykar, is now a proven combat system with increasing numbers of export clients.
Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight
The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking.
No Peacemakers for the New / Old Caucasian War: Understanding the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clash
A full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and as the two belligerents — Armenia and Azerbaijan — mobilize their forces under martial law, no international authority is trying in earnest to stop the hostilities. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region ignited 30 years ago as the Soviet Union was collapsing and has never effectively “frozen.” The cease-fire Russia negotiated in May 1994 was not backed by a peacekeeping operation, and clashes have kept occurring, most notably in April 2016.
The Future of Urban Warfare in the Age of Megacities
Urbanization is a relentless trend, and as cities grow and expand, armed conflict and violence are urbanizing as well.
Beyond national styles. Towards a connected history of Cold War counterinsurgency
This book is a major new study of the extent to which national mentalities, or 'ways of war', are responsible for 'national styles' of insurgency and counterinsurgency
In Helsinki, Putin Can Grant Trump Great Success, of Sorts
The July 16, 2018, face-to-face between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is both entirely natural and extremely unconventional, very encouraging and deeply disturbing.
La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain
Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond to, such a limited use of nuclear weapons.
The Taboo of the Armenian Genocide, Part One: Global Reaction and American Inaction
In the Syrian refugee crisis enveloping Europe, Turkey has become the bottleneck toward which migrants are flowing into Europe, a factor increasingly important for Germany in particular. Relations have been strained, however, due to disputes over the possibility of lifting visa requirements.
Turkey: the Sèvres Syndrome, or the Endless War
For Turks, the Treaty of Sèvres symbolises the dissolution of the empire and the carving up of Turkey by foreign powers.
Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia
"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and the invention of nuclear weapons.
The Obama Administration and Syria: From "off the table" to on
A quick look at the news dealing with the Syrian uprising the last year shows a slow progression from protests and civil resistance towards violence. The Obama Administration’s policy dealing with what many have called “slow motion revolution” has evolved in fits and starts, with mixed episodes of confusion, assertiveness, denial and drift.
Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects
Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations.
China sees at least one winner emerging from Ukraine war: China
Officials in Beijing believe it can take advantage of a distracted US and weakened Russia. The war in Ukraine is far from over, but a consensus is forming in Chinese policy circles that one country stands to emerge victorious from the turmoil: China.
Putin’s War is Stuck, Beware The Rising Risks
Data on the concentration of Russian troops was solid; the diplomatic offensive executed by Moscow was deliberately disagreeable; yet, many experts (myself including) refused to accept the proposition on the coming war as “inevitable”.
France hopes deporting more alleged radicals will bring security
France has repatriated more than half the people it defined as radical Islamists living in the country without a residence permit since 2018. Now it wants to extend the penalty and deport even more.
Army colonel sworn in as Mali president as tensions with Paris grow
Assimi Goïta vows to uphold republican regime and democracy in Mali.
France Halts Joint Military Operations with Mali Over Coup
PARIS - France said Thursday it would suspend joint military operations with Malian forces after the West African country's second coup in nine months, adding to international pressure for the military junta to return civilians to positions of power.
Russia’s spat with EU puts relations into deep-freeze
Kremlin stance is blow to European countries which favour outreach to Moscow. Russia’s combative treatment of the EU’s top diplomat during a landmark trip there has triggered a political outcry — but little expectation that the European bloc will end divisions over how to handle the Kremlin.
Navalny poisoning shatters Macron's Russia reset dream
The poisoning of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny with the Novichok nerve agent has dealt a blow to French President Emmanuel Macron's strategy of rapprochement with Russia, which troubled some EU allies, analysts say.
France pushes risky bet on detente with Moscow
Paris (AFP) - French President Emmanuel Macron senses an opportunity to bring Russia's Vladimir Putin back in from the cold and potentially help usher in peace in Ukraine, an ambitious -- and risky -- undertaking that Western allies might not welcome.
Macron Heads to Russia in European Effort to Salvage Iran Deal
French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Russia this week once threatened to split France from its European allies. Now it’s part of a wider European effort to tie President Vladimir Putin to the Iran nuclear accord.
Russia, France look for way out of geopolitical deadlock
On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron are due to hold a meeting in St. Petersburg.
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