War and Armed conflict
The geography and modalities of wars and armed conflicts are evolving in step with the international system. While irregular wars and asymmetrical conflicts persist, high-intensity wars are multiplying, while crises are taking on new forms as a result of hybrid threats.
Related Subjects
War in Ukraine: Schumpeter in Sovietland ?
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Moscow’s initial plan was to use a “shock and awe” approach to conquer Kyiv quickly.
Ukraine: Between Two Peaces?
We have reentered the world of war. In its first special report, Politique étrangère offers a range of in-depth analyses of the military and political dynamics at work in a Europe that has just woken up from its dream of enduring peace. The direct confrontation between Ukraine and Russia has pitted two military and defense systems against each other, whose asymmetrical logics, strengths, and weaknesses we are discovering as the conflict unfolds.
War In Ukraine: Why Mariupol Is A Priority Target For Russia
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the port city of Mariupol, located on the Sea of Azov, has been of great strategic interest to Moscow. Vladimir Putin has made it a symbolic objective.
Ethiopia: Civil War Dynamics
Ethiopia has been in a state of civil war since November 2020. The hostilities have already gone through several phases.
Renault’s Russia dilemma
Renault had for months been plotting to export a newfangled version of the Lada to the reste of the world. although realising that ambition remained some way off, it would have capped the revival of a brand arguably more synonymous with the Soviet Union than any other and which Renault first took a punt on in 2007 after then chief Carlos Ghosn identified Russia as a promising market.
Climate: Which Way Forward?
Thirty years after Rio, the case file “Climate: Which way forward?” assesses current climate commitments, which are undoubtedly less impressive and less certain than the political pronouncements and media fanfare make them seem. A number of fundamental problems remain.
China sees at least one winner emerging from Ukraine war: China
Officials in Beijing believe it can take advantage of a distracted US and weakened Russia. The war in Ukraine is far from over, but a consensus is forming in Chinese policy circles that one country stands to emerge victorious from the turmoil: China.
Putin’s War is Stuck, Beware The Rising Risks
Data on the concentration of Russian troops was solid; the diplomatic offensive executed by Moscow was deliberately disagreeable; yet, many experts (myself including) refused to accept the proposition on the coming war as “inevitable”.
Rewinding the Clock? US-Russia Relations in the Biden Era
The escalating crisis in Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022 has returned US-Russia relations to center stage.
Germany’s Africa Politics: Renewal of an Unequal Cooperation?
In recent years, Germany’s Africa politics have been characterized by proactive international initiatives and the claim for a "partnership at eye level". However, a look at the power constellations of its cooperation indicates that inequalities are – contrary to Germany’s own claims – rather reproduced than reduced.
Back to “the Tradition”: Turkey’s Changing Position from a Federal to a Two-State Solution to the Cyprus Conflict
When it came to power in 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) defended a bicommunal, federal solution for Cyprus, and supported the Annan Plan to reunite the island.
France hopes deporting more alleged radicals will bring security
France has repatriated more than half the people it defined as radical Islamists living in the country without a residence permit since 2018. Now it wants to extend the penalty and deport even more.
Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves
In the event of a major conflict, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause a global energy crisis.
Hypersonic Weapons: What Are the Challenges for the Armed Forces?
Hypersonic systems are becoming attributes of power for the states that design and implement them, at the risk of reviving an arms race.
Army colonel sworn in as Mali president as tensions with Paris grow
Assimi Goïta vows to uphold republican regime and democracy in Mali.
France Halts Joint Military Operations with Mali Over Coup
PARIS - France said Thursday it would suspend joint military operations with Malian forces after the West African country's second coup in nine months, adding to international pressure for the military junta to return civilians to positions of power.
Russia and Turkey. Strategic Partners and Rivals
The extraordinarily troublesome year 2020 tested many international institutions and bilateral ties, but few experienced sharper challenges than the complex relations between Russia and Turkey, which have a strong impact on crisis developments in Europe’s immediate neighborhood.
Is Russia Fascist? Unraveling Propaganda East and West
The charge of "fascism" has become a strategic narrative of the current world order.
Russia’s spat with EU puts relations into deep-freeze
Kremlin stance is blow to European countries which favour outreach to Moscow. Russia’s combative treatment of the EU’s top diplomat during a landmark trip there has triggered a political outcry — but little expectation that the European bloc will end divisions over how to handle the Kremlin.
Réparer 2020 ou préparer 2030 ? L’entraînement des forces françaises à l’ère du combat multi-domaine
From basic training to the conduct of international exercises, operational readiness planning aim to make the components of military capabilities (equipment, doctrines, operational know-hows) consistent with the operational contracts decided at the strategic level.
No Peacemakers for the New / Old Caucasian War: Understanding the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clash
A full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and as the two belligerents — Armenia and Azerbaijan — mobilize their forces under martial law, no international authority is trying in earnest to stop the hostilities. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region ignited 30 years ago as the Soviet Union was collapsing and has never effectively “frozen.” The cease-fire Russia negotiated in May 1994 was not backed by a peacekeeping operation, and clashes have kept occurring, most notably in April 2016.
The Future of Urban Warfare in the Age of Megacities
Urbanization is a relentless trend, and as cities grow and expand, armed conflict and violence are urbanizing as well.
Wars in the Next Decade
Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.
In Helsinki, Putin Can Grant Trump Great Success, of Sorts
The July 16, 2018, face-to-face between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is both entirely natural and extremely unconventional, very encouraging and deeply disturbing.
La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain
Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond to, such a limited use of nuclear weapons.
Beyond national styles. Towards a connected history of Cold War counterinsurgency
This book is a major new study of the extent to which national mentalities, or 'ways of war', are responsible for 'national styles' of insurgency and counterinsurgency
The Taboo of the Armenian Genocide, Part One: Global Reaction and American Inaction
In the Syrian refugee crisis enveloping Europe, Turkey has become the bottleneck toward which migrants are flowing into Europe, a factor increasingly important for Germany in particular. Relations have been strained, however, due to disputes over the possibility of lifting visa requirements.
Turkey: the Sèvres Syndrome, or the Endless War
For Turks, the Treaty of Sèvres symbolises the dissolution of the empire and the carving up of Turkey by foreign powers.
Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects
Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations.
The Obama Administration and Syria: From "off the table" to on
A quick look at the news dealing with the Syrian uprising the last year shows a slow progression from protests and civil resistance towards violence. The Obama Administration’s policy dealing with what many have called “slow motion revolution” has evolved in fits and starts, with mixed episodes of confusion, assertiveness, denial and drift.
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