Prénom de l'expert

Sylvie

Nom de l'expert

CORNOT-GANDOLPHE

China’s economy has rebounded since April 2020 and China is one of the few countries in the world that is expected to avoid a recession in 2020. With low imported gas prices, progress with the gas market liberalization and success in pushing up shale gas production, the window of a golden age for gas has opened up again in China.

China’s gas industry has been moving into a new era. China’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed amid a state campaign that encourages coal-to-gas switching. In just two years, China added 75 billion cubic meters (bcm) to global gas demand, the equivalent of the UK gas market, the second largest European market. Despite steadily rising, Chinese gas production has not been able to cope with such a huge increase in demand and gas imports have also surged.

For the second consecutive year, the coal sector registered good results in 2018. Global coal demand continues to increase (+0.7% in 2018), reversing the trend observed in 2015-16. Coal accounted for 26% of global primary energy consumption, maintaining its position as the second-largest energy source after crude oil, and the first for electricity generation with 38% of global power generation.

Under particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat”, President Donald Trump has started imposing tariffs and/or quotas and has launched national security investigations on a growing number of imported goods from US allies and others alike.

Over the past decade, an increasing number of emerging markets has joined the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import club. 

Coal in the power sector is the principal focus of climate-related policies due to its high carbon intensity, making CO₂ emissions from coal a leading contributor to climate change. 

Shortly after his inauguration in May 2017, the President of South Korea, Moon Jae-In, announced a major policy shift away from nuclear and coal power, and toward renewables and gas. This would have meant a complete U-turn from previous policies, considering that nuclear and coal produced 40% and 30% respectively of Korea’s total electricity in 2016.

Following difficult years for the European gas industry, natural gas is back to the front stage.

This study addresses the resilience factors of the American production of light tight oil, in particular regarding the evolution of the financial model, and the regulatory changes with the authorisation of exports for crude oil. The paper also evaluates the development perspectives of the production on the medium and long term.