Fossil Energies
The geopolitics of hydrocarbons - how are global balances changing, and what are the implications for Europe, emerging and rentier states, as well as for energy transitions?
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Although it is still marginal, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing. According to the French Institute of Petroleum and Renewable Energies (IFPEN, Institut Français du Pétrole et des Énergies Renouvelables), EVs accounted for a little more than 2% of the light vehicle market in 2019. This was up by 54% compared to 2018, but EVs still only represent 0.8% of the global car fleet. That said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates EVs could make up between 15% and 30% of vehicle sales in 2030.
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Despite the deterioration of its relations with the West and economic stagnation limiting its room for maneuver, Russia continues to have an ambitious policy for the Arctic region.
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In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the debate moderated by Thierry de Montbrial between Jean-Paul Agon and Patrick Pouyané.
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The world plastic production has been multiplied by 23 since 1964 to reach 348 million tonnes (mt) in 2017. This production level is expected to double in the next 20 years, largely because of the significant growth in plastic consumption in developing countries. Today, China is the largest producer of plastics (representing nearly 30% of global production) and the European Union (EU) comes second (18.5%) with 64 mt.
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With the expansion of modern production and consumption patterns to large African cities, population growth and urbanization, production of municipal waste has risen sharply. Unregulated dumps are becoming numerous and have strong negative health effects by polluting the local environment.
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The major transformations that are occurring on the Chinese gas market have profound repercussions on the global gas and LNG markets, especially on trade, investment and prices. In just two years, China has become the world’s first gas importer and is on track to become the largest importer of Liquefied natural gas (LNG).
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China’s gas industry has been moving into a new era. China’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed amid a state campaign that encourages coal-to-gas switching. In just two years, China added 75 billion cubic meters (bcm) to global gas demand, the equivalent of the UK gas market, the second largest European market. Despite steadily rising, Chinese gas production has not been able to cope with such a huge increase in demand and gas imports have also surged.
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Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.
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With the launch of its “battery alliance”, the European Union is finally taking up the industrial battle with Asia and hopes to meet a large share of the surging demand for electrical batteries. Yet, the clock is ticking and the future of battery manufacturing in Europe depends primarily on the strategies that automakers will adopt.
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Possible Energy Transitions through 2029
Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.
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Challenge of Making Smart Cities in India
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Dramatic changes in the Russian energy strategy and energy-based political alliances are to be expected due to the evolution of the domestic oil and gas market resulting from the economic crisis and sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea.
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The construction of what is nowadays called European energy policy is an ongoing process that officially started with the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, and has not yet been entirely finalized. It took several decades to move from a Community composed of six countries to a policy – not fully fledged – intended to strengthen as much as possible cohesion between 28 EU member states in the energy sector.
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As an early task in its efforts to build a common external energy policy, the Commission has announced it will turn its attention to bringing the vast gas resources of Turkmenistan to European consumers. This will be an excellent place for the Commission to test its ability to speak with one voice for its polyglot constituency. First, their task may be facilitated by the fact that on this topic, no European voices are yet particularly audible.
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