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Fossil Energies

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The geopolitics of hydrocarbons - how are global balances changing, and what are the implications for Europe, emerging and rentier states, as well as for energy transitions?

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Energy Security, Transnational Pipelines and China's Role in Asia

Date de publication
19 April 2010
Accroche

In recent decades, China's transformation from a regional energy supplier to one of the world's largest net energy importers, in particular with regards to oil and gas, has led to an increasing sense of energy insecurity in Chinese policy circles. Guaranteeing adequate supplies of energy to fuel economic growth is a central element in Beijing's efforts to maintain legitimacy in the face of economic reform and transformation. To combat energy insecurity a number of initiatives are being undertaken to diversify energy inputs, suppliers, and the means of their transport.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Bellwether of Russia's Investment Climate?

Date de publication
20 June 2008
Accroche

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a shipper-owned oil pipeline carrying Caspian oil to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossyisk, remains to this day the only oil export pipeline on Russian territory that is not under the control of the state company Transneft. Completed in 2001, the CPC was, from the start, the product of a fragile balance of power between states eager to maintain control of hydrocarbon flows and private companies able to finance the necessary infrastructure. Despite its economic success, the future of the CPC currently hinges on a shareholding dispute pitting Russia against Western private shareholders. This essay places the CPC dossier in the broader context of Russia's investment climate and argues that the dispute's dynamic is an important bellwether of the Russian energy policy.

EU Gas Liberalization as a Driver of Gazprom's Strategies?

Date de publication
30 January 2008
Accroche

Russia and Gazprom's natural gas strategies on the European market are the result of the uncertainties (volumes, prices) created by the liberalization of the EU natural gas market. The company's policy of asset acquisition, begun at the end of the 1990s, the multiplication of export networks, as well as the desire to preserve long-term contracts while benefiting from new contractual opportunities are all clear illustrations of this strategy. Yet the industrial and commercial strategies that Gazprom may develop cannot discount geopolitical issues. Therefore, Vladimir Putin's desire to place hydrocarbons at the service of his economic and foreign policies, notably by making use of large, internationalized companies owned primarily by the state, remains in the background.

High Stakes in the High North: Russian-Norwegian Relations and their Implications for the EU

Date de publication
17 December 2007
Accroche

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Norway embarked on a policy to overcome old dividing lines in the High North and encourage closer cooperation with Russia, its large neighbor to the east. In addition to being neighbors in the High North - an area that still plays an important part in Russian strategic designs - both countries are important global energy players and share interests in developing energy resources in the area. However, their energy cooperation is influenced by many historical and geopolitical factors and concerns, and their bilateral relationship is strongly influenced by a visible disparity of their respective potentials and by their historically determined perceptions of each other. To what extent their cooperation in the energy sphere will be influenced by these perceptions, and to what extent their energy related interests overlap or collide are a few of the questions addressed in this brief analysis of the developing Russian-Norwegian energy relationship, particularly in light of Gazprom's decision to invite StatoilHydro to join the Shtokman gas field project.

Rosoboronexport, Spearhead of the Russian Arms Industry

Date de publication
03 September 2007
Accroche

Rosoboronexport, a federal state unitary enterprise, is at the heart of Russian political power: it is the key pivot of the arms exports policy and of the ongoing consolidations of the Russian military-industrial complex (MIC). On behalf of its Director Sergey Chemezov, a close relation of President Vladimir Putin, Rosoboronexport has become the driving force for the renewal of Russia's military-technical policy, as it benefits from a quasi monopoly on arms exports. Through Rosoboronexport, the Russian state is seeking to modernize the Russian MIC - token of the country's power and influence on the international scene. In order to ensure the long-term success of its takeover operations of Russian industrial companies, Rosoboronoexport now needs to complete its transformation into an industrial holding company and strengthen its privileged position beyond the next Russian presidential elections to be held in 2008.

The Opacity of Russian-Ukrainian Energy Relations

Date de publication
23 May 2007
Accroche

Energy issues lie at the heart of Ukraine's economic, political and strategic challenges. A year after the 'orange revolution', the 'gas war' served to highlight the country's vulnerable position, being 80% dependent on imports of gas and having the world's most energy-hungry economy. The 2005 crisis also highlighted the extreme opacity of the country's bilateral relations with Russia, which are governed as much by the interests surrounding Gazprom's relations as by those of the state. Yanukovich's return to power in the summer of 2006 coincided with a relative appeasement of relations with Moscow and a new division of spheres of influence in the Ukrainian energy sector.

Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises

Date de publication
28 March 2007
Accroche

The recent crises over oil & gas deliveries from Russia to Ukraine and Belarus have triggered alarm and virulent criticism in the West. 

Gazprom, the Fastest Way to Energy Suicide

Date de publication
27 March 2007
Accroche

Russia is an unavoidable actor in world energy geopolitics. It is also the biggest energy partner of a European Union (EU) that is becoming ever more dependent on outside sources for its energy needs. However, the future of Russia's largest company-Gazprom-and the development of its future production capacities are at the center of a complex financial and political game dominated by numerous uncertainties, including Gazprom's actual reserves, its ability to invest in exploration and production, and its very capacity to develop production. Indeed, back in state hands, Russian gas and oil companies-Gazprom included-do not appear to be in a position to meet their future production commitments. Gazprom's ability to honor its contracts with gas companies in the EU is in fact already the subject of numerous interrogations.

The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue: Competition Versus Monopolies

Date de publication
31 August 2006
Accroche

Russia and the European Union have clearly entered a new stage in their energy relations, defined by a growing asymmetry between a strengthened national monopoly on the supply side and a gradual opening of markets in Europe. In this context, a multitude of new approaches to EU-Russia relations have been voiced recently by a wide variety of experts. Unfortunately, many of them involve 'defensive' solutions, driven by lack of mutual trust on both sides. Is a positive approach nevertheless still possible? The paper argues that competition is a key universal value in the development of a new and sustainable energy relationship between Russia and Europe. It is clear that EU competition regulators should take the lead in setting up a new framework for EU-Russia energy relations in the future. The success of their endeavors will not only determine the security of energy supply for European consumers, but also that of the Russian and Eurasian energy markets.

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