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Fossil Energies

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The geopolitics of hydrocarbons - how are global balances changing, and what are the implications for Europe, emerging and rentier states, as well as for energy transitions?

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Publications
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Strengthening the Dynamics of Renewable Electricity in Europe

Date de publication
22 November 2022
Accroche

We have made considerable progress in twelve years and the new European Union targets change the scale of renewables, facilitating the electrification of uses. Renewable energies must be pushed to the maximum regardless the future of nuclear power generation.

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The European Green Deal Three Years On: Acceleration, Erosion, Fragmentation?

Date de publication
14 November 2022
Accroche

The European Green Deal (EGD) is the single most defining policy initiative of the von der Leyen Commission. Since its publication in December 2019, it has become the European Union’s (EU) new raison d’être: protecting the planet and Europeans from environmental degradation, through a holistic approach to the energy transition, while promoting sustainable growth and a just transition with no social group or territory left behind. 

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European Green Deal, Three Years Later

21 November 2022
Accroche

The European Green Deal (EGD) is the single most defining policy initiative of the Von der Leyen Commission. Since its publication in December 2019, it has become the European Union’s (EU) new raison d’être.

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Chinese Influences in Africa 2. Myths and Realities in Economic Relations

Date de publication
06 October 2022
Accroche

China and Africa share a strong relationship since the wave of African independences in the 1960s. Nevertheless, China-Africa trade has experienced an unprecedented surge since the late 1990s and has been accompanied by the rise of a discourse of "win-win" partnership between China and Africa. 

Alain KARSENTY Alicia GARCIA HERRERO Johanna MALM Thierry PAIRAULT
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The Geopolitics of Seawater Desalination

Date de publication
27 September 2022
Accroche

A rapidly-expanding market

Marc-Antoine EYL-MAZZEGA Élise CASSIGNOL
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A Guide to Solve EU’s Hydrogen Dilemmas

Date de publication
19 September 2022
Accroche

Facing multiple crises, the European Commission (EC), backed by European Union (EU) Member States, has embarked on a pathway to accelerate the decarbonization of the EU energy system, while fostering its resilience and accelerating the roll out of hydrogen and derivative by-products.

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Five Years after China’s Plastic Import Ban: Have Europeans Taken Responsibility?

Date de publication
04 July 2022
Accroche

After the 2017 Chinese waste import ban, the international and European Union (EU) legislative framework on waste exports has been revised. 

Eugénie JOLTREAU
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Moving towards a metallic age: building industry resilience through a strategic storage mechanism for Rare Earth Metals

Date de publication
31 May 2022
Accroche

The decarbonisation of our economies, along with the challenges of strengthening the resilience of industrial value chains, reindustrialisation, notably through low-carbon and digital technologies, and the end of a period of cheap oil and gas, are accelerating the advent of an era of increased dependence on metals in a context of new and growing competition for access to resources. ​

Vincent DONNEN
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Saving Energy in a Hurry: Reducing Dependence on Russian Hydrocarbons Requires Resolute Demand and Supply Sides Action

Date de publication
17 March 2022
Accroche

Facing Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, European countries have enacted economic and financial sanctions against Russia. 

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A Sino-Congolese Scandal. Illegal Exploitation of Minerals and Forests by Chinese Companies in South Kivu

Date de publication
09 February 2022
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Since 2020, the exploitation of gold from mining sites in the Wamuzimu chiefdom in the South Kivu province by Chinese companies has aroused great discontent among the population. 

Justin MWETAMINWA Thierry VIRCOULON
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Power to the Cooks! New Clean Cooking Opportunities for Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Date de publication
01 February 2022
Accroche

2.6 billion people globally and 1 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) cook using biomass fuel. The detrimental effects on the environment and public health, as well as the time and money lost are considerable. If nothing new is done, this situation will worsen further in SSA.

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Strengthening Sovereignty in the Era of Global Value Chains

Date de publication
14 December 2021
Accroche

How to reduce the vulnerabilities induced by these global value chains to be more independent, while taking into account the reality of these productive processes which precisely generate interdependencies?

Paul HERAULT
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Uranium in Namibia: Yellowcake Fever

Date de publication
01 December 2021
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Mineral revenues are the driving force behind Namibia’s economic performance. Namibia is rich in mineral resources which include uranium, diamond, copper, gold, lead, lithium and zinc. However, these mineral riches are not always allocated and utilized in a transparent manner and seem to benefit disproportionately a small number of wealthy elites, many of them affiliated with the ruling party SWAPO.

Selma EL OBEID
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What can we expect from Russia at COP26?

28 October 2021
Accroche

We ask experts whether the Kremlin’s latest moves on climate, including its 2060 net-zero target, heralds genuine change or more greenwash. 

Russia has been seen as a climate pariah by the international community for some years. It was one of the last counties to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement – not until September 2019, at the UN’s Climate Action Summit.

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A Strategy for Solving Europe’s Imported Deforestation Problem

Date de publication
19 October 2021
Accroche

The European Union (EU) is the world’s main trader in agricultural products, with imports totaling €142 billion in 2020. These imported agricultural products include commodities – palm oil, beef, cocoa, coffee, soy, etc. – that are responsible for deforestation in producing countries and thus create an “imported deforestation” problem for Europe.

Alain KARSENTY Nicolas PICARD
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After the Hydrogen Bubble Bursts: The Factors Shaping and Possibly Unfolding International Hydrogen Value Chains

Date de publication
17 September 2021
Accroche

The laws of physics and the geographic realities will prevail over the myths of hydrogen (H2): it will essentially be delivering carbon-neutral feedstocks to the chemical and steelmaking industries, carbon-neutral fuels to shipping and aviation, and eventually ensuring security in fully decarbonized power grids.

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Geopolitics of the World’s Forests: Strategies for Tackling Deforestation

Date de publication
15 September 2021
Accroche

Deforestation continues at a worrying pace worldwide, except in temperate and boreal countries. It is caused by the race for land, underpinned by population growth and rising global demand for “deforestation-prone” products. Moreover, with climate change, mega-fires are now posing unprecedented threats to forests.

Alain KARSENTY
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The Economic and Political Consequences of Falling Oil Production in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030

Date de publication
11 June 2021
Accroche

The sharp rebound in oil prices since the second half of 2020, to nearly $70 per barrel in May 2021, represents only a temporary respite for oil-dependent African economies that must change their economic model very quickly.

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The Adaptation Game — Russia and Climate Change

Date de publication
05 March 2021
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Russia is an outlier in the international consensus on climate change.

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Norway as a Decarbonization Hub for the European Union

Date de publication
10 September 2020
Accroche

The European Union (EU) is committed to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Similarly, Norway aims to create a zero-emission society by that same year. 

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COP28: Daunting Stakes and Pivotal Decisions on the Table

Date de publication
30 November 2023
Accroche

The UN climate conference in Dubai faces a moment of troubled geopolitical agenda lowering the focus on the climate emergency, but natural ecosystems will not wait for human decisions. A challenging test for the survival of diplomacy.

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COP28: A Tale of Money, Fossil Fuels, and Divisions

Date de publication
16 November 2023
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“Humanity has opened the gates of hell”, said the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres during the Climate Ambition Summit, in New York, in September 2023, three months before COP28. The sense of urgency that he conveyed seems shared across the international community. 

Global Coal Markets at a Climax. An Era of Coal Decline is Finally about to Begin

Date de publication
04 October 2023
Accroche

In a previous note published in 2018, we noted that global coal demand had flattened. Several governments had announced coal phase-out plans, global coal power investment had contracted, and investment in greenfield coal mines was also at a standstill. The freezing of financial resources for coal projects might have indicated the beginning of a structural decline in coal demand and supply.

 

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The Europeanisation of the Energy Transition in Central and Eastern EU Countries: An Uphill Battle that Can Be Won

Date de publication
19 April 2023
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Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the brutal decoupling from Russian fossil fuels, is a game changer for the Central and Eastern Europe region which was still heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supply. 

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After the Hydrogen Bubble Bursts: The Factors Shaping and Possibly Unfolding International Hydrogen Value Chains

Date de publication
17 September 2021
Accroche

The laws of physics and the geographic realities will prevail over the myths of hydrogen (H2): it will essentially be delivering carbon-neutral feedstocks to the chemical and steelmaking industries, carbon-neutral fuels to shipping and aviation, and eventually ensuring security in fully decarbonized power grids.

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Norway as a Decarbonization Hub for the European Union

Date de publication
10 September 2020
Accroche

The European Union (EU) is committed to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Similarly, Norway aims to create a zero-emission society by that same year. 

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Industry Response to New Protectionism

Date de publication
30 December 2019
Accroche

In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the debate moderated by Thierry de Montbrial between Jean-Paul Agon and Patrick Pouyané.

Jean-Paul AGON Patrick POUYANNÉ Thierry de MONTBRIAL
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Russia’s Energy Strategy-2035: Struggling to Remain Relevant

Date de publication
10 December 2019
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Russia’s Energy Strategy to 2035 (ES-2035) enters, finally, the home stretch. The Ministry of Energy submitted its version of the document to the Russian Government in early October 2019.

Tatiana MITROVA Vitaly YERMAKOV
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(De)globalization of International Plastic Waste Trade: Stakes at Play and Perspectives

Date de publication
19 September 2019
Accroche

The world plastic production has been multiplied by 23 since 1964 to reach 348 million tonnes (mt) in 2017. This production level is expected to double in the next 20 years, largely because of the significant growth in plastic consumption in developing countries. Today, China is the largest producer of plastics (representing nearly 30% of global production) and the European Union (EU) comes second (18.5%) with 64 mt. 

The European Battery Alliance is Moving up a Gear

Date de publication
02 May 2019
Accroche

French battery cell manufacturer Saft and Opel, the German subsidiary of automaker PSA Group, are finalising the details of a major investment project in battery cell manufacturing. Is the European Union (EU) finally challenging Asia’s dominance on battery cells production? What chances of success for the European Battery Alliance (EBA) and what implications for the EU industrial policy?

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