Fossil Energies
The geopolitics of hydrocarbons - how are global balances changing, and what are the implications for Europe, emerging and rentier states, as well as for energy transitions?
Related Subjects
A Sino-Congolese Scandal. Illegal Exploitation of Minerals and Forests by Chinese Companies in South Kivu
Since 2020, the exploitation of gold from mining sites in the Wamuzimu chiefdom in the South Kivu province by Chinese companies has aroused great discontent among the population.
Challenge of Making Smart Cities in India
The Indian government has launched the Smart Cities Mission in June 2015 with the aim of providing a better quality of life to the citizens in 100 cities of the country. This paper describes the main features of the Mission and attempts to explain the challenges in the way forward.
The Geopolitics of Seawater Desalination
A rapidly-expanding market
Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon
Post-sanctions Russia-China energy relations: what expectations?
The Europeanisation of the Energy Transition in Central and Eastern EU Countries: An Uphill Battle that Can Be Won
Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the brutal decoupling from Russian fossil fuels, is a game changer for the Central and Eastern Europe region which was still heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supply.
Kanal Istanbul: Pipedream or Politics ?
This paper examines Kanal Istanbul, a plan proposed by recently re-elected Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to bypass the Bosphorus Strait by creating a canal west of Istabul.
China’s Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Market
China’s gas industry has been moving into a new era. China’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed amid a state campaign that encourages coal-to-gas switching. In just two years, China added 75 billion cubic meters (bcm) to global gas demand, the equivalent of the UK gas market, the second largest European market. Despite steadily rising, Chinese gas production has not been able to cope with such a huge increase in demand and gas imports have also surged.
COP28: Daunting Stakes and Pivotal Decisions on the Table
The UN climate conference in Dubai faces a moment of troubled geopolitical agenda lowering the focus on the climate emergency, but natural ecosystems will not wait for human decisions. A challenging test for the survival of diplomacy.
EU Gas Liberalization as a Driver of Gazprom's Strategies?
Russia and Gazprom's natural gas strategies on the European market are the result of the uncertainties (volumes, prices) created by the liberalization of the EU natural gas market. The company's policy of asset acquisition, begun at the end of the 1990s, the multiplication of export networks, as well as the desire to preserve long-term contracts while benefiting from new contractual opportunities are all clear illustrations of this strategy. Yet the industrial and commercial strategies that Gazprom may develop cannot discount geopolitical issues. Therefore, Vladimir Putin's desire to place hydrocarbons at the service of his economic and foreign policies, notably by making use of large, internationalized companies owned primarily by the state, remains in the background.
Russia’s Arctic Policy: A Power Strategy and Its Limits
Despite the deterioration of its relations with the West and economic stagnation limiting its room for maneuver, Russia continues to have an ambitious policy for the Arctic region.
COP30: An Inflection Point for Climate Action and Governance
The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), opening in Belém, Brazil, on November 10th 2025, convenes at a perilous moment.
Gazprom, the Fastest Way to Energy Suicide
Russia is an unavoidable actor in world energy geopolitics. It is also the biggest energy partner of a European Union (EU) that is becoming ever more dependent on outside sources for its energy needs. However, the future of Russia's largest company-Gazprom-and the development of its future production capacities are at the center of a complex financial and political game dominated by numerous uncertainties, including Gazprom's actual reserves, its ability to invest in exploration and production, and its very capacity to develop production. Indeed, back in state hands, Russian gas and oil companies-Gazprom included-do not appear to be in a position to meet their future production commitments. Gazprom's ability to honor its contracts with gas companies in the EU is in fact already the subject of numerous interrogations.
Geopolitics of the World’s Forests: Strategies for Tackling Deforestation
Deforestation continues at a worrying pace worldwide, except in temperate and boreal countries. It is caused by the race for land, underpinned by population growth and rising global demand for “deforestation-prone” products. Moreover, with climate change, mega-fires are now posing unprecedented threats to forests.
Industry Response to New Protectionism
In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the debate moderated by Thierry de Montbrial between Jean-Paul Agon and Patrick Pouyané.
"Russia New Energy Alliances: Mythology versus Reality", Interview with Vladimir MILOV
"Past year has been marked not only with the Ukrainian crisis and unprecedented tensions in political relations between Russia and the West, but also with somewhat radical change of Moscow’s approach to international energy affairs. Widely promoted new energy partnerships with countries like China and Turkey were supposed to demonstrate that Russia has a choice of alternatives for mass-scale international energy cooperation, as compared to previous domination of European dimension, and if West wishes to cut ties with the Kremlin, Russia has somewhere else to go.
Does Russia really have an option of developing new international energy partnerships comparable in scale and significance to those with Europe as the consumer of energy, and with Western IOCs as key agents helping to secure further exploration and development of Russian oil & gas resources?"
Strengthening Sovereignty in the Era of Global Value Chains
How to reduce the vulnerabilities induced by these global value chains to be more independent, while taking into account the reality of these productive processes which precisely generate interdependencies?
How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?
Three and a half years before the scheduled entry into force of the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which requires aviation fuel suppliers at Union airports to offer a sustainable synthetic alternative (e-SAF), no sizeable commercial production unit (greater than 10,000 tons per year) is active within Europe yet, nor has it even passed the Final Investment Decision (FID). Is a major step in the European Union (EU) plans for decarbonizing air transport at risk of not happening, or at least being postponed for several years? Is Europe losing its bet to create a market for e-SAF? Under what conditions can this bet still be won? Could sovereignty and energy security preoccupations unlock necessary public support and help to overcome economic, financial, logistical or administrative obstacles?
Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: between Confrontation and Collusion
Since the start of the Ukraine crisis in early 2014, the states of East Central Europe have become increasingly important targets of Russian economic, political and military pressure. Russia finds itself in the trajectory of geopolitical retreat on the Western “front”, and seeks to slow down this process by mobilizing every economic, political and military asset in East Central Europe, where various weak points in the European and Atlantic unity exist—and are typically overestimated by Moscow.
Five Years after China’s Plastic Import Ban: Have Europeans Taken Responsibility?
After the 2017 Chinese waste import ban, the international and European Union (EU) legislative framework on waste exports has been revised.
COP28: Daunting Stakes and Pivotal Decisions on the Table
The UN climate conference in Dubai faces a moment of troubled geopolitical agenda lowering the focus on the climate emergency, but natural ecosystems will not wait for human decisions. A challenging test for the survival of diplomacy.
COP28: A Tale of Money, Fossil Fuels, and Divisions
“Humanity has opened the gates of hell”, said the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres during the Climate Ambition Summit, in New York, in September 2023, three months before COP28. The sense of urgency that he conveyed seems shared across the international community.
Global Coal Markets at a Climax. An Era of Coal Decline is Finally about to Begin
In a previous note published in 2018, we noted that global coal demand had flattened. Several governments had announced coal phase-out plans, global coal power investment had contracted, and investment in greenfield coal mines was also at a standstill. The freezing of financial resources for coal projects might have indicated the beginning of a structural decline in coal demand and supply.
The Europeanisation of the Energy Transition in Central and Eastern EU Countries: An Uphill Battle that Can Be Won
Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the brutal decoupling from Russian fossil fuels, is a game changer for the Central and Eastern Europe region which was still heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supply.
After the Hydrogen Bubble Bursts: The Factors Shaping and Possibly Unfolding International Hydrogen Value Chains
The laws of physics and the geographic realities will prevail over the myths of hydrogen (H2): it will essentially be delivering carbon-neutral feedstocks to the chemical and steelmaking industries, carbon-neutral fuels to shipping and aviation, and eventually ensuring security in fully decarbonized power grids.
Norway as a Decarbonization Hub for the European Union
The European Union (EU) is committed to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Similarly, Norway aims to create a zero-emission society by that same year.
Industry Response to New Protectionism
In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the debate moderated by Thierry de Montbrial between Jean-Paul Agon and Patrick Pouyané.
Russia’s Energy Strategy-2035: Struggling to Remain Relevant
Russia’s Energy Strategy to 2035 (ES-2035) enters, finally, the home stretch. The Ministry of Energy submitted its version of the document to the Russian Government in early October 2019.
(De)globalization of International Plastic Waste Trade: Stakes at Play and Perspectives
The world plastic production has been multiplied by 23 since 1964 to reach 348 million tonnes (mt) in 2017. This production level is expected to double in the next 20 years, largely because of the significant growth in plastic consumption in developing countries. Today, China is the largest producer of plastics (representing nearly 30% of global production) and the European Union (EU) comes second (18.5%) with 64 mt.
The European Battery Alliance is Moving up a Gear
French battery cell manufacturer Saft and Opel, the German subsidiary of automaker PSA Group, are finalising the details of a major investment project in battery cell manufacturing. Is the European Union (EU) finally challenging Asia’s dominance on battery cells production? What chances of success for the European Battery Alliance (EBA) and what implications for the EU industrial policy?
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
