Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)
As in Togo and Gabon, the transition that took place in Chad from 2021 to
2024 resulted in a dynastic succession. Mahamat Idriss Deby succeeded his
father, Idriss Deby Itno, who was President of Chad from 1996 to 2021. While
the majority of Chadians were hoping for a change of government, the “Deby
system” has managed to hold on.
This study deciphers the strategy of this transition-succession, which
consisted in :
- believing in the possibility of change without alternation, by insisting on
the age of the new president and initiating new political orientations; - consolidate the traditional pillars of power;
- forcibly intimidate the opposition and take advantage of its divisions;
- institutionally confiscate the organization of the constitutional
referendum and elections, as well as the drafting of the founding texts of
the new Republic.
This strategy was all the more effective given that, in the geopolitical
context of the new Cold War, there is no longer any international player (even
at continental and regional level) capable of imposing itself as the arbiter or
guarantor of political transitions. This new geopolitical situation has given
the Chadian government almost total freedom to implement its succession
plan and impose itself through elections with implausible results.
If the transition from 1993 to 1996 marked the transition from Hissene
Habre’s regime to Idriss Deby’s, the transition of 2021-2024 marked the
succession from Deby to Deby.
This study is only avalaible in French.
Available in:
Themes and regions
ISBN / ISSN
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)
Author(s)
Thierry VIRCOULON
Associate Research Fellow, Coordinator of the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa Center, Ifri
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.
The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.
The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
The dilemma of the Franco-African military relationship: reinvent or turn the page?
The origins of military presence and cooperation in Africa can be traced back to the tacit decolonization pact between the countries of French-speaking Africa. This cooperation led to the creation of African armies in the former colonies, as part of a project to prevent the spread of communism and maintain France's influence in the newly independent countries.
The Evolution of City Diplomacy in Africa: Impact, Potential, and Ongoing Challenges of African Cities’ International Activities.
Over the past decades, African cities have ranked among the leading players in the evolution of city diplomacy. Indeed, municipalities across the continent have gone beyond simply adapting to shifting trends in international cooperation. They have been shaping the current partnership approach that sees local authorities worldwide working together to pursue shared goals and address common urban challenges such as climate change, migration, and social justice.
The High Authority for Peacebuilding (HACP) in Niger 2011-2023. Placing the State at the heart of conflict prevention and management.
Like other Sahelian countries, Niger has been affected by terrorism for almost two decades now. This issue has highlighted both the limits of these countries’ security systems and, more profoundly, their inability to offer stability to the populations of certain parts of the country. In a way, these “jihadized insurgencies” are a continuity of groups that regularly take up arms against central states.
Kenya’s Spiritual President and The Making of a Born-Again Republic: William-Ruto, Kenya’s Evangelicals and Religious Mobilizations in African Electoral Politics
Over the last two decade, the growing influence of Evangelicals and their leaders in electoral politics is one of the most significant developments in the East African region and the Horn of Africa. Their numerical and demographic growth seems to go together with their growing influence in these countries’ political scenes, especially in the spheres of electoral politics, society, and governance.