North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing security crises and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability
Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.
Trade without Religion between Turkey and Syria
A saying claims that trade has no religion; it even adapts to a war situation, as demonstrated by the real-time reorganisation of trade channels at the Turkish-Syrian border.
The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
War and Democratic Decision Making: How do Democracies Argue and Decide Whether or Not to Intervene in Distant Wars?
What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making.
Russia in the Middle East: Back to a “Grand Strategy” – or Enforcing Multilateralism?
Russian military intervention in Syria was not an attempt to exert dominance as a hegemonic power in the Middle East.
Middle East, the new "Great Game"
Will a divided Middle East become the center of a new “Great Game”? The world’s global powers are aligned in it: the United States, falsely tempted by retraction; Russia, establishing its position in an unexpected state of play, France, destabilized by the contradictions of its own policy… In addition are tussles for regional hegemony between Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
Kurds against IS: An Effective Military Solution?
The Kurdish military’s recent history immediately brings to mind images of its mythical female fighters, and of its real victories against Daesh. But its successes have been primarily in Syria. In Iraq, the Kurdish military has been hindered by poor preparation, lack of effective weaponry, and various political and tactical disagreements between actors. Without support from the West, Kurdish forces will not be able to win the on-ground offensive.
Migrations in Africa: Another Look
Migration in Africa is a major concern, but largely for Africans alone. To adequately study the question of international migration, one must look beyond Europe’s current predicament. Through its dossier on “Migrations in Africa: Another Look”, this issue of Politique étrangère examines a number of factors that determine migration movements, how states in Africa attempt to manage the significant problem of internal migration, the difficulties of integrating migrant workers into their host societies, and the false pretenses of Euro-African agreements on readmission.
Shadows on Israeli Gas Success Story: a Political and Geopolitical Risk Analysis
In Israel, both the regional geopolitical context and domestic politics play an important role in the development of the offshore gas fields.
The Evolution and Limits of the Algiers-Moscow Relationship
During the Cold War, Algeria was one of the Soviet Union’s favored partners. Ties between the two countries deteriorated during the 1990s before going through a renewal around fifteen years ago.
Muslim States’ Influence on Islam in France
Successive attempts to institutionalise Islam in France have not resulted in an entirely satisfactory outcome.
Controlling Trafficking or Losing the North : Notes on Trafficking in Mauritania
Our interest in this topic stems both from our annual visits to Mauritania which started fifteen years ago, and the tiny amount of research noticed on trafficking in this country.
Trafficking in the Sahel-Saharan Zone: Features and Stakes
On November 5th 2009, a cocaine-loaded Boeing 727 aircraft arriving from Venezuela was discovered torched and emptied on a makeshift airstrip in the Malian desert (Gao region). The Sahel-Saharan area is clearly a contact zone between very distant worlds.
Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East
Toward Transatlantic Cooperation in Meeting the Iranian Nuclear Challenge
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Related centers and programs
Governing the Urban Transition in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's cities are experiencing the fastest growth rates in the world. By 2050, most of the countries in the region will have made an urban transition, meaning that more than 50% of their population will live in urban areas. Urban growth is often presented as a cornerstone of the continent's socio-economic development.
To assess these challenges Ifri’s Sub-Saharan Africa Center is launching, in May 2022, a research program looking into the major socio-economic and geopolitical challenges of urban dynamics on the continent.
The program deals with urban development in Africa through a sectoral and cross-cutting approach based on three key sectors:
- Land issues are the foundation of urban life. Each urban project triggers changes within the relationship between land and its inhabitants.
- Urban infrastructure is often presented as a solution to the challenges of demographic growth in cities. However, the lack of infrastructure and its financing remains a concern for specialists.
- The mobility of goods, people and financial flows is characteristic of urban life and drives the multiple links between cities and the countryside. Analyzing the urban-rural continuum is at the heart of this program's objectives.
Research will be conducted at the macro (continental), meso (country), and micro (city/neighborhood) levels and will be promoted through events and publications.
Turkey/Middle East Program
Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.
The programme has the following objectives:
- Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
- Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
- Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
- Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.
The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.