Arabian-Persian Gulf
Monitoring the development of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, which are establishing themselves as a pole of power in the Middle East and projecting their interests beyond, as in Africa, while Iran plays the role of disrupter.
Iran’s allies are attacking the West. What happens next?
From Jordan to Lebanon to the Red Sea, attacks on U.S. and European interests are increasing.Tensions are rising in the Middle East after Washington vowed to respond to the drone attack that killed three American soldiers on the 28th of January, sponsored by Iranian-backed militants.
The Ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Pacific
In January 2023, the Iranian Navy staged a show of force near the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) amid growing tensions between Tehran and Canberra.
The United Arab Emirates and Sino-American Competition: Towards a Policy of Non-Alignment?
In just under five years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has accelerated its rapprochement with Xi Jinping’s China, to the point of becoming the first Gulf country to find itself at the heart of the rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Although benefiting from a large US military presence, the UAE has made its partnership with the Chinese regime a new priority that goes beyond energy and trade.
Why a reconciliation between Washington and Teheran seems impossible.
Relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic are marked by history. On the Iranian side, the overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 weighs heavily on the perception of the United States. On the American side, the events linked to the 1979 Islamic Revolution remain a trauma after more than forty years. The agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and signed in July 2015, was therefore a momentous first step towards a possible reconciliation. Unfortunately, the process was interrupted by the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement and the implementation of a "maximum pressure" policy by the Trump administration in 2018.
The Geopolitics of Seawater Desalination
A rapidly-expanding market
Saudi Arabia, Turkey Seek to Mend Ties as Crown Prince Visits Ankara
The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are turning the page on years of strained relations, exacerbated by the 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. Face-to-face dialogue is the order of the day between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
After a Divorce, a Frosty Entente: Turkey's Rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia
After the Arab uprisings, Turkey’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) broke down along sharp ideological lines. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sought to preserve the regional status quo by adopting a counter-revolutionary approach, Turkey emerged as an anti status quo, pro-revolutionary power supporting political islam.
Qatar and the US-China Rivalry: The Dilemmas of a Gulf Monarchy
Like its neighbors in the Arabian Peninsula, Qatar finds itself increasingly confronted with a difficult dilemma: while its economy is looking to the East, more specifically towards China, the security and stability of the country still depend on the United States.
The United Arab Emirates in Africa: The Partly Thwarted Ambitions of a New Regional Player
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long-standing ties with African countries, but the implementation of a genuine Africa policy dates back only about 15 years.
Washington-Téhéran : l'élection de Joe Biden change-t-elle la donne ?
The recent assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iran's nuclear program, echoes that of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 and illustrates the policy of "maximum pressure" which has prevailed these past four years. In this context, Joe Biden's election gives rise to high expectations for the appeasement of U.S.-Iran relations.
After a Divorce, a Frosty Entente: Turkey's Rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia
After the Arab uprisings, Turkey’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) broke down along sharp ideological lines. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sought to preserve the regional status quo by adopting a counter-revolutionary approach, Turkey emerged as an anti status quo, pro-revolutionary power supporting political islam.
The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?
The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
The Gulf Monarchies' Armed Forces at the Crossroads
Something is happening with the military forces of the Arab monarchies in the Gulf.
Turkey/GCC Economic Relations
Developing economic relations with GCC countries has become a consistent objective of the Turkish government since the coming in power of AKP. They have been successful in rallying part of the Turkish business community to this objective, thus building an internal social consensus towards opening to the Gulf.
Iran’s allies are attacking the West. What happens next?
From Jordan to Lebanon to the Red Sea, attacks on U.S. and European interests are increasing.Tensions are rising in the Middle East after Washington vowed to respond to the drone attack that killed three American soldiers on the 28th of January, sponsored by Iranian-backed militants.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey Seek to Mend Ties as Crown Prince Visits Ankara
The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are turning the page on years of strained relations, exacerbated by the 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. Face-to-face dialogue is the order of the day between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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