Summary: Following repeated bouts of political violence, which were exacerbated by the presidential and legislative elections of 29 March 2008, opposition members and the government of Zimbabwe undertook lengthy and difficult negotiations to put an end to the unrest. These negotiations resulted in the creation of a new national unity government, which was sworn in on 13 February 2009. This marks the end of a long political battle between the regime of President Robert Mugabe and his opponents, of whom the new Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai had been the main spokesman. In a country on the brink of economic collapse, the new government faces enormous challenges. The economic and social balance remains precarious, and the political climate is still fraught with many rivalries. Thierry Vircoulon, associate researcher of IFRI's Africa Program comments on the crisis in Zimbabwe today, and delivers some thoughts on what we may expect from the new national unity government.

Barack Obama's recent overtures toward Russia show a desire to break away from the Bush years, which were characterized by a profound deterioration in American-Russian relations. To gauge the chances of success for this openness, we must reexamine the Bush legacy weighing on the resumption of relations, especially on their strategic dimension. Indeed, direct exchanges between the two countries over the course of the past eight years have increasingly turned towards head-on opposition. Indirect exchanges between the two states in Russia's neighborhood also display contradictory influences, with Iran and Georgia bringing to light deep-rooted differences fuelled by cold war-style rhetoric. In other words, even if Barack Obama appears to be imposing his own style by reorienting America's foreign policy, his scope for action is partly limited by the legacy of his predecessor.

Despite the challenges that China is currently facing in the light of the global financial crisis, the major message from the People's Hall in Beijing was a positive one: confidence. The conclusion of the annual sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) after more than ten days of debate echoed the message which the Chinese Premier WEN Jiaobao had already delivered last September in New York, when he said that ‘confidence is more important than gold or money'.

American and European positions on climate change are based on historical choices concerning energy use as well as on different international and economic strategies. 

'States that respect human rights, share the values of a human rights culture and experienced the efficiency of regional tribunals on the matter are the most likely to join the International Criminal Court.'

Paradoxically, Russia's military success during the "five day war" in the South Caucasus in August 2008 highlighted the deplorable state of its conventional armed forces, weakened by years of underfunding, failed reforms and declining social prestige. Nevertheless, the Kremlin sees the military as one of the principal elements in the restoration of Russian power. As a result, it seeks to promote a positive image of the armed forces, which is nothing more than an illusion, manipulated for both domestic and international ends. The return of heavy weaponry to annual parades on Red Square and Soviet-era symbols on military uniforms, the resumption of strategic bomber flights, and the deployment of Russia's navy to Latin America and the Caribbean all play a role in the staging of this illusion. Taking into account Russia's current economic difficulties, it will be difficult to realize the ambitious reform agenda laid out after the Georgian war; in these conditions it remains likely that the Russian authorities will be tempted to undertake a marketing campaign, rather than a reform program.

Roger N. McDermott is an Honorary Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics & International Relations, University of Kent, Canterbury, and a Senior Fellow in Eurasian Military Studies at the Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC. He specializes in defense and security issues in Russia, Central Asia and the South Caucasus, and his published research appears in journals such as the Journal of Slavic Military Studies and the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence.

Russie.Nei.Visions is an electronic collection of policy papers published in French, English and Russian by the Russia/NIS Center, Ifri.

Report written by Christi an Schülke, Junior Research Fellow, Ifri Bruxelles.

Thirty years after the start of the policy of reform and opening up launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the political system and Chinese society are considerably more open. However, there still are many gray areas, one of which is the question of decision-making: the way the decision-making process is concretely implemented remains opaque. Between statements of principle and apparent inconsistencies, an analysis of the decision-making process helps to shed light on the conflicts within the political apparatus, the debates on the evolution of the regime, the interests at work, and the power games that take place.

Summary: The scale of the violence which has hit Madagascar has taken many commentators by surprise. However, early warning signs were visible over the last few months. The origin of this crisis can be linked to President Ravalomanana's management of political, economic and social issues coming into disrepute. There are numerous similarities with the 2002 political crisis even if strong nuances are also present. Mathieu Pellerin, journalist and consultant, details the political, social and economic divisions which have ripped Madagascan society apart and personal rivalries between Madagascar's president and Antananarivo's mayor. Text in English will be available very soon.

While the Pakistani state is on the decline, the militarization of the society increases. By arming the Pashtun tribes so that they stand up to the local Taliban, the Pakistani state fully contributes to its own process of marginalization. That strategy could easily lead to an escalation of the civil war which already rages in the Pashtun belt. Yet, the Taliban challenge only represents one of the threats hanging over Pakistan's future. The decline of the state can be witnessed everywhere.

This content is published in French - Pakistan : du désordre à la guerre civile ?

Immigration was a key priority of the French EU Presidency in 2008.

This debate was organized in cooperation with the US Mission to the EU.
Report written by Christian Schülke, Junior Research Fellow, Ifri Brussels