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Friedrich Merz and the Zeitenwende 2.0. A “New Era” for Transatlantic Relations?

Date de publication
07 March 2025
Accroche

On February 23, 2025, almost 60 million voters were called upon to elect a new Bundestag. These elections will also give rise to a new government in Europe's largest economy.

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After the Elections: Germany in Search of Shaken Stability?

Date de publication
05 March 2025
Accroche

With a voter turnout of 82.5%, Germany recorded its highest participation since 1987—an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to 2021. As in the previous election, the high turnout particularly benefited the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was able to mobilize many former non-voters. Many voters sought to punish the outgoing government with their ballots, as its approval rating had dropped to just 14% before the coalition broke apart in November 2024. Germany is now very likely heading toward a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with exploratory talks having begun on February 28.

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France Contested in Overseas Territories - Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 1, Spring 2025

Date de publication
04 March 2025
Accroche

New Caledonia, Mayotte: France's overseas territories were severely shaken in 2024. Beyond explanations of the economic situation, the place of these overseas territories in French policies and strategies is once again being called into question.

Are France's overseas territories the remnants of an outdated colonialism? Or, on the contrary, are they supports for an extended French presence that the opening-up of the world makes indispensable, and barriers raised here and there against the appetites of new powers? In any case, what policies should the Hexagone pursue in these regions, to promote better development and more effective integration into their environment? And is the legal status of these overseas territories untouchable?

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Trump 2: Challenges for the US Military Posture - Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 1, Spring 2025

Date de publication
04 March 2025
Accroche

The distribution of operational leverage points in US strategy has changed significantly over the past two decades, with a sharp reduction. Donald Trump's distancing and repeated criticism of traditional US alliances threaten to undermine the entire architecture of the US presence in the world, beyond the concrete, real and, in particular, industrial impasses of America's military posture.

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Ukraine: A Year of Uncertain Peace - Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 1, Spring 2025

Date de publication
04 March 2025
Accroche

During his election campaign, Donald Trump promised to settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. As the American president settles into the White House, different options are emerging for the future of this conflict. Some are more likely than others, but none can be ruled out. European countries appear increasingly divided over Russia, and the European Union risks paying a high price if it fails to come up with a solid common strategy.

Pierre VIMONT
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Anglo-Kenyan Relations (1920-2024) : Conflict, Alliance and a Redemptive Arc

Date de publication
03 March 2025
Accroche

This article provides an evidentiary basis for postcolonial policy in its analysis of Anglo-Kenyan relations in a decolonization era.

Inaya KHAN
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When City Diplomacy Meets Geopolitics: A Framework to Help Cities Navigate Geopolitical Risk

Date de publication
27 February 2025
Accroche

Crises and the increasing polarization of international relations make political risk analysis an indispensable resource for internationally active public and private entities. 

Lorenzo KIHLGREN GRANDI Cecilia Emma SOTTILOTTA
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Jammu and Kashmir in the Aftermath of August 2019

Date de publication
25 February 2025
Accroche

The abrogation of Article 370, which granted special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), has been on the agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for many decades.

Aijaz Ashraf WANI
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AI, Data Centers and Energy Demand: Reassessing and Exploring the Trends

Date de publication
24 February 2025
Accroche

The information and communication technologies sector today accounts for 9% of global electricity consumption, data centers for 1-1.3%, and artificial intelligence (AI) for less than 0.2%. The growing energy demands of cloud services first, and now AI workloads (10% of today’s data centers electricity demand), have exacerbated this trend. In the future, hyperscale data centers will gain shares amongst all kinds of data centers and AI will probably account for around 20% of data centers electricity demand by 2030.

Laure de ROUCY-ROCHEGONDE Adrien BUFFARD
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How the US under Trump Became a Strategic and Ideological Adversary of Europe

Date de publication
21 February 2025
Accroche

The Europeans' worst security nightmare seems to be coming true: on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Saudi Arabia to initiate the normalization of relations between their two countries. The meeting also aimed to set up peace negotiations for Ukraine. However, despite having the potential to affect the entire continent, the discussions took place without the Europeans or the Ukrainians being present.

The China-Russia Partnership and the Ukraine War: Aligned but not allied

Date de publication
20 February 2025
Accroche

China and Russia maintain a strategic partnership rooted in shared opposition to the U.S. and liberal democracies, but their relationship is shaped more by pragmatism than trust.

France’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance

Date de publication
20 February 2025
Accroche

France stands out as the only European country capable of making a substantial security contribution to the South Pacific, with a permanent presence of 2,800 military personnel extensively skilled in regional cooperation.

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Unlocking India’s Energy Transition: Addressing Grid Flexibility Challenges and Solutions

Date de publication
20 February 2025
Accroche

India is rapidly scaling up its renewable energy (RE) capacity, adding 15–20 GW annually, but the ambitious goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 is at risk unless the pace accelerates.

Akul RAIZADA

Technical Standards, Soft Connectivity and China’s Belt and Road: Towards greater convergence or fragmentation?

Date de publication
14 February 2025
Accroche

As the intensification of geopolitical competition points toward increased global fragmentation, the definition of technical standards for future markets and industries will play an important role in determining just how deep the fissures will run. 

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Will Trumpian Authoritarianism Lead to a Constitutional Crisis?

Date de publication
14 February 2025
Accroche

Since his return to the White House on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump has signed around sixty executive orders to implement his political agenda. Numerous other measures have also been introduced by the White House and the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as part of these orders. 

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The German Greens as an Alliance Party: The End of an Illusion?

Date de publication
13 February 2025
Accroche

At the Wiesbaden Congress in November 2024, Robert Habeck, currently Minister for the Economy and Climate, was nominated as the Green Party’s candidate for the Chancellorship in the early parliamentary elections on February 23, 2025. The party, founded 45 years ago, is now firmly established in the German political landscape. Wishing to turn the page on an unloved ‘‘traffic light’’ coalition, the party is banking on a personal campaign and an optimistic discourse based on the energy transition and social justice.

Annette LENSING
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The Rise of the AfD and the Choice of Radicalism

Date de publication
12 February 2025
Accroche

Founded in 2013, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has become increasingly radical as crises have unfolded. Since 2015-2016 and the massive influx of immigrants into Germany, it has positioned itself as a virulently anti-migrant party and continues to consolidate its foothold in the German political system, particularly in parliaments. While its roots are very strong in the eastern regions, where its main strongholds are located, it is also attracting more and more voters in the west, against an overall backdrop of normalization of the far right and a national context marked by strong economic and political destabilization.

Valérie DUBSLAFF
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The Liberal Democrats in the German Federal Elections: A Party Fighting for Survival

Date de publication
11 February 2025
Accroche

The Free Democratic Party FDP, in great difficulty ahead of the early elections in 2025, is trying to recover after the collapse of the coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Greens. Its wavering position between government and opposition has undermined its credibility, and it is struggling to surpass the 5% threshold.

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The SPD in the Run-Up to the 2025 General Election: from Chancellor's Party to Junior Coalition Partner?

Date de publication
10 February 2025
Accroche

The 20th legislative period (2021-2024) came to an abrupt end in the Federal Republic, following the dismissal of Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor of the Liberal Democratic Party FDP, Christian Lindner, by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, due to deep political disagreements, in November 2024. 

Nicolas BATTEUX
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Trump’s Second Term: Laying the Groundwork for a New Trade War

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

In a statement released on February 1, 2025, President Trump announced the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While the former took effect via executive order on February 4, the latter were granted a 30-day reprieve. Sanctions targeting European Union (EU) products are said to be imminent.

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The United Nations Mission in Congo or the exemplary uselessness of the United Nations peacekeepers

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

During the M23 conflict in 2012-2013 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United Nations (UN) took the diplomatic initiative (by initiating the Addis Ababa agreement) and the military initiative (by launching a coordinated counter-offensive with the Congolese army). Since the resurgence of this conflict in 2022, the United Nations, which still has more than 10,000 peacekeepers deployed in eastern DRC, no longer plays any role. 

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The Caspian Sea as an Emerging Energy Hub : Potentials and Limitations

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU). 

Sergey SUKHANKIN
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Taking the Pulse: Has Political Deadlock in Member States Become a Strategic Problem for the EU?

Date de publication
06 February 2025
Accroche

At a pivotal moment for the EU, several of its member states are experiencing domestic political and economic crises. Is this hindering collective EU action in response to the challenges posed by Russia, China, and Trump’s administration?

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The CDU in the 2025 Elections: A Road to the Chancellery, Paved with Challenges

Date de publication
04 February 2025
Accroche

After a legislative session in the opposition, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) looks set to win the snap elections in February 2025. It is very likely that the country’s future chancellor will be Friedrich Merz. 

Martin BALOGE
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Artificial Promises or Real Regulation? Inventing Global AI Governance

Date de publication
03 February 2025
Accroche

The risks inherent to the unregulated use of AI, a key technology and vector of profound transformations within societies underline the pressing need to harmonize governance efforts at the international level. The Summit for Action on Artificial Intelligence to be held in Paris in mid-February could be an unprecedented timely occasion to agree on a global governance framework of AI for the public good.

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From Conservative Nationalists to Tech-Libertarians: Far-Right Ideologies in the Trump 2 Administration

Date de publication
31 January 2025
Accroche

The officials and advisers of the Trump 2 administration represent diverse ideological currents, some of which are relatively new to Washington.

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The European Union's Strategic Test in Georgia

Date de publication
27 January 2025
Accroche

The political crisis brewing in Georgia is of an existential nature for the country. What is at stake is Georgia's future as a democratic and sovereign European nation (EU).

Teona GIUASHVILI
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The Future of Air Superiority. Command of the Air in High Intensity Warfare

Date de publication
24 January 2025
Accroche

Air superiority, understood as control of the air, is a cornerstone of the Western art of warfare. It is a decisive condition, albeit not sufficient by itself, to achieve military victory, as it enables the concentration of air power toward the achievement of wider strategic objectives and protects other components from unbearable attrition levels. It is best achieved through the offensive use of air power in a joint effort to neutralize the enemy’s air power.

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India’s Quest for Economic Emancipation from China

Date de publication
23 January 2025
Accroche

In October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. Has India's high level of economic dependence on China played an important role in bringing about this diplomatic shift?

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Germany in the Electoral Campaign to the Early Elections on February 23 - The Challenges of a high-risk Voting

Date de publication
23 January 2025
Accroche

One month before the early Federal Elections in Germany, which will take place on February 23, 2025, after the "Traffic light coalition" imploded on November 6, 2024, the political landscape in Germany appears to be relatively stable despite the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

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The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace

Date de publication
20 January 2025
Accroche

In this collective analysis, the research team of the Center for Asian Studies presents a synthetic and non-exhaustive assessment of the relations taking shape between the United States under the Trump II administration and some of the main players in the Indo-Pacific.

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The Case for Enhanced France-Philippines Maritime Cooperation

Date de publication
07 January 2025
Accroche

France and the Philippines, two Indo-Pacific nations, can capitalize on their shared interests, needs, and expertise in maritime security and governance, ultimately fostering strategic rapprochement.

Céline PAJON Jose Renan SUAREZ
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From nonproliferation to strategic competition: US export controls and China

Date de publication
06 January 2025
Accroche

Technological competition is at the heart of the renewed great-power competition that has characterized relations between the USA and China since the 2010s. The role of technological innovation in the evolution of power relations is already recognized in the literature of international relations. However, developments in US technology policy under the last two administrations raise the reverse question: how does the perception of changing power relations (in this case, Chinese technological catch-up perceived as a threat to US leadership) transform policies granting or denying access to technological innovation?

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Out of Thin Air but More than a Mirage: The Politics of Saudi Arabia's Nascent Music Industry

Date de publication
18 December 2024
Accroche

This study critically examines Saudi Arabia’s nascent music industry, which is promoted as a key element of Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strategic framework to diversify the kingdom’s economy. It explores how state-led investments in music and entertainment intersect with authoritarian governance. The author neither dismisses these investments as conspicuous spending nor reproduces an alarmist narrative of impending cultural imperialism. The article takes a political sociology approach to understand how Saudi entertainment plans consolidate domestic power and reshape regional cultural landscapes.

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70th Anniversary of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa). Genesis, History and Visions for Franco-German relations

Date de publication
17 December 2024
Accroche

The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions.

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How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?

Date de publication
16 December 2024
Accroche

A data-based analysis shows that widespread geoeconomic fragmentation of world trade is not visible, at least so far. In contrast, the geopolitically-motivated challenges to international coordination are striking, notably in relation with China's surging surplus in manufactured goods trade.

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Hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The case of Europeans detained in Iran

Date de publication
13 December 2024
Accroche

The so-called hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran refers to a political and diplomatic strategy in which Tehran uses the detention of Western nationals, dual citizens, or Iranian citizens residing in Europe, Australia, or the United States as leverage in diplomatic negotiations. This practice aims to exert pressure to secure political, economic, or diplomatic concessions as part of Tehran’s asymmetric response strategy. Hostage diplomacy remains a controversial yet effective tool from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, given its context of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

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Commanders of Putin's Long War: Purged, Reshuffled and Disgruntled

Date de publication
10 December 2024
Accroche

The trend of reshuffling the Russian top military command in the course of a fast-evolving and far from successful war has progressed unevenly both across the Armed Forces’ structures and in time. The rationale for and timing of the abrupt cadre decisions made by Commander-in-Chief Putin often defy logical explanation, and the rare official clarifications are no more informative than the usual information blackout. 

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France’s maritime security cooperation in the Pacific

Date de publication
06 December 2024
Accroche

France plays a significant role in Pacific maritime security, particularly through the active participation of its overseas territories and the contribution of its stationed armed forces to regional cooperation initiatives.

Céline PAJON Genevieve QUIRK
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Barriers and Adaptations To Rural-Urban Mobility: A Focus of the Milk Value Chain in Peri-Urban Nairobi, Kenya

Date de publication
05 December 2024
Accroche

Kenya has per capita milk consumption of 110 litters of milk per year, making the inhabitants the largest milk consumers in sub-Saharan Africa. The daily sector requires functional infrastructure adapted to weather conditions, as well as affordable and easily accessible means of transport. However, only 18% of Kenya's road network is considered to be in good condition . As a result, farmers take alternative routes, reduce the number of trips, or limit their sales to the urban periphery. The daily transport of milk along the 47-kilometer urban-rural continuum in the peri-urban area north of Nairobi illustrates the reciprocal links between urban and rural areas and the dynamics of peri-urbanization. The challenges of the flow of milk along the value chain are intrinsically linked to those of mobility, which creates the connection between production, the exchange of goods and services, and consumption.


 

Jackson KAGO

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