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The Indo-Pacific Vision in Strategic Limbo: A Foreign Policy Case Study for the Trump Era

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Asie Visions
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The Trump Administration’s Indo-Pacific security strategy is a case study in foreign policymaking under a non-unitary executive.

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USS Antietam (CG 54) and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) refuel at sea. (2018) © US Navy
USS Antietam (CG 54) and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) refuel at sea. (2018) © US Navy
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Having identified competition with China as a leading national security priority in its early months, disposed of the Obama Administration’s Rebalance to Asia, and begun the process of defining its ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ approach, the administration has made little subsequent progress towards developing it into a concrete strategy. While some modest efforts have been made to develop policy at the working level, the President himself has pursued a much narrower China approach, focused almost exclusively on punitive trade measures and North Korea.  Moreover, the basic principles that motivate Indo-Pacific concept are clearly at odds with the President’s own instincts. As a result, two largely independent streams of China policy have emerged and are highly unlikely to be rationalized in the next two years.

This current disjuncture does not, however, doom the Indo-Pacific security strategy to history’s dustbin. Whether or not the moniker persists, the basic contours of the approach are likely to be adopted by a new administration and are largely consistent with broader U.S. objectives in the region. Far beyond the White House, a consensus has emerged in Washington that the United States and China will be increasingly competitive, and that a holistic American strategy is necessary. Any future strategy is likely to rely on allies and partners, emphasize democracies, seek to secure the First Island Chain and maritime Asia, and have ample room for participation by European partners. There will, however, remain many hurdles to full and successful implementation, including perennial American over-optimism about regional states’ alignment decisions and ability to commit resources, as well as the profound distrust that is likely to enshroud U.S. strategic leadership after Trump. Nonetheless, American allies and partners may think of the Indo-Pacific approach as one whose time is still likely to come; they should seek to develop it themselves until the United States is capable of resuming some form of regional leadership.

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978-2-36567-947-3

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The Indo-Pacific Vision in Strategic Limbo: A Foreign Policy Case Study for the Trump Era

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Author(s)
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Asia Map
Center for Asian Studies
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Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.

The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands. 

The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.

The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.

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France’s maritime security cooperation in the Pacific

Date de publication
06 December 2024
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France plays a significant role in Pacific maritime security, particularly through the active participation of its overseas territories and the contribution of its stationed armed forces to regional cooperation initiatives.

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Taiwan’s Rising Space Program: Building Up Industry, Supporting National Security

Date de publication
13 November 2024
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Taiwan, known for its leadership in semiconductors and information and communications technology (ICT), is now making significant strides in the space industry. While historically modest, Taiwan’s space program has seen a transformation since 2020, driven by President Tsai Ing-wen’s commitment to expanding the country’s space capabilities. Key milestones include the passage of the Space Development Act and the creation of the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), which has bolstered the resources and visibility of Taiwan’s space ambitions.

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AI and Technical Standardization in China and the EU: Diverging priorities and the need for common ground

Date de publication
31 October 2024
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Given the highly disruptive potential of AI, global cooperation on AI safety and governance is imperative, and yet the deeply transformational potential of AI also ensures that a high level of competition and systemic rivalry is likely unavoidable. How can the EU best manage its complex relationship with China in the field of AI so as to ensure a necessary level of cooperation in spite of competition and rivalry?

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China’s Quest for a Quantum Leap

Date de publication
22 October 2024
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The global race to harness quantum science is intensifying. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security.

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ISBN: 978-2-36567-947-3
USS Antietam (CG 54) and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) refuel at sea. (2018) © US Navy
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The Indo-Pacific Vision in Strategic Limbo: A Foreign Policy Case Study for the Trump Era