Prénom de l'expert

William C.

Nom de l'expert

RAMSAY

In Denmark last Tuesday, President Medvedev said he had a smiling face for the world. Not surprising. The deal he is reported to have done with President Yanukovitch should bring smiles to many Russian faces - mostly in the Kremlin. However, it is unlikely that the President’s namesake in Gazprom, Alexandre Medvedev is smiling because his company’s interests have once again been subordinated to Russia’s foreign policy agenda.

The third Ifri Annual Energy Conference held at the Plaza Hotel, Brussels in February 2010 posed the question: “How do we begin effectively to close the gap between climate change policies and current practices - or put another way between climate change rhetoric and market reality”.

Jacques Delors’ Notre Europe has rendered a considerable service to European energy policy thinkers, but his proposed European Energy Treaty is the wrong answer.

News that Conoco will sell off a significant portion of its Russian holdings is couched in terms of various corporate strategies that make all this perfectly normal. Conoco is said to need cash and will anyway have a 10% share remaining in Lukoil that will provide them some degree of influence in corporate decisions.

The European gas market has an unusually large number of moving parts just now. Demand forecasts are buffeted by announcements of great expectations in de-carbonizing the energy mix, differing expectations on the longer term economic growth path and a range of assessments on how soon Europe will recover from the economic recession.

We have heard admonitions about peak oil and that we have already passed the geologic peak of world oil production capacity. On the other hand, the IEA warns that if we continue our present patterns of energy consumption, we will need the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia’s in new oil production capacity by 2030 - seemingly at ease that the oil is geologically out there.