Deterrence and Proliferation
The issues of nuclear deterrence and weapons proliferation are back in the balance of power between states. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea: arsenals are growing and modernizing.
Related Subjects
French thinking on AI integration and interaction with nuclear command and control, force structure, and decision-making
This paper analyses the French literature on France’s perception of military AI, especially its consequences on strategic systems and competition, and nuclear deterrence.
Strategic Signaling: A Lever for France in the Competition Between Powers?
From the joint and combined Orion 2023 exercice to the deployment of Leclerc tanks in Romania, through the qualification fire of new missiles, the French armed forces conduct many manoeuvres and activities that are now described as falling under the "strategic signaling".
Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization and Doctrinal Change
Dating back to the first test in 1964, the Chinese nuclear force modernization process is motivated by other nuclear powers’ modernization across the years, mostly from the United States and the Soviet Union, but also by domestic factors such as economic debates and tensions in the scientific community.
La paix par la force. La modernisation de la défense sud-coréenne sous la présidence Moon Jae-in
South Korea's defense modernization plan, Defense Reform 2.0, represents a significant effort in terms of military capabilities since 2018. The outgoing president, Moon Jae-in, has placed particular emphasis on high-tech acquisition as well as transforming the Korean defense industrial and technological base into a major domestic and international supplier.
An Engine Replacement Could Kill Europe’s Huge F-35 Plans
If the decision to replace the engine for the F-35A is implemented, countries flying F-35s will find themselves forced into unforeseen and overly complicated supply chains.
Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region
Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland.
The regional economic order: Four scenarios
What will the economic order in the Indo-Pacific region look like twenty years from now? What are the major trends shaping it, and how are they likely to evolve in the near future?
Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors
The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts.
The European Equation of Nuclear Deterrence, Variables and Possible Solutions
Ever since nuclear weapons were developed by the United States and the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, Europe has lived under the nuclear shadow. A major direct confrontation between “the West” and “the East” could have very likely resulted in the detonation of nuclear weapons on the continent. As the Cold War ended, massive reductions in the US and Soviet arsenals (from 70,300 in 1986 to 13,890 in 2019) and a new security architecture radically transformed the European security environment.
L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration
If Iran is a key player in the Middle East, it is in no small part because of its extensive network of armed militia, which it uses as proxies.
France to spell out nuclear plan
A researcher said that ‘the balance is shifting, including in countries such as Germany’ on the role of nuclear weapons in Europe’s strategic ambitions.
France, the EU’s sole nuclear power since Britain’s exit from the bloc, was to unveil how it intends to use its atomic arsenal as a deterrent. French President Emmanuel Macron, in an address to military officers graduating in Paris yesterday, was expected to recommit to upgrading France’s capacity, at a time when NATO allies, who would ordinarily look to the US in a nuclear standoff, worry about Washington’s retreat from the multilateral stage.
France to spell out post-Brexit nuclear weapons strategy
France, the European Union's sole nuclear power since Britain's exit from the bloc, will unveil Friday how it intends to use its atomic arsenal as a deterrent in an increasingly unstable world.
The European Union in Crisis: What Challenges Lie ahead and Why It Matters for Korea
The EU is currently undergoing serious challenges from inside such as Brexit and strengthening Euroscepticism, rising populism and changing political geography, anti-immigration moods as well as retarded economic recovery.
The Franco-German Tandem: Bridging the Gap on Nuclear Issues
The Franco-German couple has long been characterized by divergent trajectories on nuclear matters, and antagonist historical decisions still frame the current relationship.
The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe
The instruments of cooperative security created during and since the Cold War to foster mutual confidence and reduce the risks of war, inadvertent escalation, and arms races, in and around Europe, have come under increasing strain.
North Korea-US: How Far Will the Confrontation Go?
Since Kim Jong-Un came to power, the North Korean regime has significantly strengthened its nuclear and ballistic capabilities.
Iraq after Daesh
Going beyond the numerous claims of rupture, is Trump overturning the international order and the place occupied in it by the United States?
La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain
Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond to, such a limited use of nuclear weapons.
Where is the U.S. nuclear arsenal headed?
An interview with Jon WOLFSTHAL, nonresident scholar, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
ASEAN at 50: Half a Century of Unique Experience
In its fifty-year existence, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has developed a complex, progressive and balanced approach to regional integration. Rather than the European Union’s far-reaching statements of ever-closer union, ASEAN combines highly diverse economic and political strategies of different States whose main priority is to safeguard sovereignty.
Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe develop an independent nuclear deterrent?
Hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The case of Europeans detained in Iran
The so-called hostage diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran refers to a political and diplomatic strategy in which Tehran uses the detention of Western nationals, dual citizens, or Iranian citizens residing in Europe, Australia, or the United States as leverage in diplomatic negotiations. This practice aims to exert pressure to secure political, economic, or diplomatic concessions as part of Tehran’s asymmetric response strategy. Hostage diplomacy remains a controversial yet effective tool from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, given its context of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence
Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.
The Future of Europe’s Strategic Deterrence is (also) at Sea
A cursory look at both France and the UK suggests that the future of European nuclear deterrence is at sea.
French thinking on AI integration and interaction with nuclear command and control, force structure, and decision-making
This paper analyses the French literature on France’s perception of military AI, especially its consequences on strategic systems and competition, and nuclear deterrence.
Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization and Doctrinal Change
Dating back to the first test in 1964, the Chinese nuclear force modernization process is motivated by other nuclear powers’ modernization across the years, mostly from the United States and the Soviet Union, but also by domestic factors such as economic debates and tensions in the scientific community.
Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region
Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland.
The regional economic order: Four scenarios
What will the economic order in the Indo-Pacific region look like twenty years from now? What are the major trends shaping it, and how are they likely to evolve in the near future?
Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors
The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts.
L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration
If Iran is a key player in the Middle East, it is in no small part because of its extensive network of armed militia, which it uses as proxies.
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