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Economy

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The economy is an essential attribute of power and a major component of international relations. While geopolitical tensions are on the rise, economic interdependence remains strong.

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Publications
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France and the Modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Interests and Obstacles

Date de publication
28 July 2020
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This report is part of a joint endeavor of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), along with Elcano Royal Institute (ELCANO, Madrid), The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM, Warsaw), Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI, Rome) and the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP, Athens), to open perspectives for the modernization of the European Union-Turkey Customs Union (EU-Turkey CU). 

Aurélien DENIZEAU Dorothée SCHMID

Consequences and Lessons of a Virus

Date de publication
01 July 2020
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As Europeans get ready for their summer holidays, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be winding down, despite hotspots cropping up here and there. However, we are not safe from the next wave. After so many careless speeches, nobody dares to make any more precise forecasts. In any case, any confirmed lull fosters broader reflections both on the disaster’s consequences and the dysfunctions that allowed it to happen.

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Can Huawei Face EU Fines Like Google and Apple?

18 June 2020
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The European Union’s chief antitrust official, Margrethe Vestager, has made her name tackling big corporate fish in pretty unconventional ways. A ruling on Alphabet Inc.’s Google, which came with a seven-figure fine, argued free services weren’t always good for the consumer, while those on Apple Inc. and Starbucks Corp. deemed that low taxes were illegal state aid (though some judges begged to differ).

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Economy and Diplomacy: China’s two Challenges in the Post-Covid-19 World

Date de publication
19 May 2020
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Will China rise stronger from the pandemic? A flow of media reports and op-eds have recently flourished, forecasting the decline of the West and the triumph of China on the world stage amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Some have declared the dawn of a “post-Western world”.

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Accelerating the Energy Transition: The Role of Green Finance and its Challenges for Europe

Date de publication
15 April 2020
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Green finance has been a burgeoning sector since the Paris Agreement and is at the crossroads of financial, socio-economic and environmental challenges. It is hybrid in nature: it uses financial instruments and focuses on environmental issues, while coming under the wider field of so-called “sustainable” finance that assumes a broader approach with the inclusion of socio-economic and governance challenges. It is a catalyst as it facilitates and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy. It also includes an increasing range of instruments. From green bonds to green indices, green loans and capital raising activities, the sector is growing both quantitatively and qualitatively. So-called “green” issuance debt alone increased fivefold in nearly three years to reach US $ 257 billion in 2019, emphasizing its on-going innovation and attractiveness.

Green finance embraces the various objectives of public and private actors. It also raises major questions about the future of our societies: choosing to finance only sectors that are already “green” entails significant socio-economic risks, such as job losses in high-emitting (brown) sectors and stranded assets. Adopting a sequenced approach potentially amounts to locking in polluting activities in the long term and not achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives (lock-in effect).

In view of the physical risks of climate change (devastation and disasters) and those related to energy transition (stranded assets), climate change is now generally considered as a systematic risk. Public and private actors– institutional investors, banks, regulators, central banks, insurers, credit rating agencies, states, multilateral organizations – are taking action both to better understand the risks posed by climate change, and to capitalize on opportunities in this growing field. Green finance provides the financial sector with instruments to effectively reorient capital towards the low-carbon transition. Against a background of uncertainty about the effects of climate change,[1] green finance also reduces the information asymmetry about risks related to major ecosystem disruptions. The structuring and distribution of “green” products are important growth drivers for many stakeholders and in a wide variety of sectors.

However, many risks and challenges remain: financial risks, specifically related to high levels of subsidies for the production and use of fossil fuels, and the lack of a single carbon price; structural risks, which hamper the economic attractiveness of sustainable activities, particularly in terms of profitability; and unclear political signals, notably resulting in regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the language of green finance remains fragmented and is still relatively vague: there are many reporting frameworks and taxonomies, preventing easy and uniform ownership by stakeholders. Standardized methodologies, requirements and disclosures are critically needed. A common language is required, not only among Europeans but worldwide, to ensure that financing the ecological transition is genuinely effective.

The quality and comparability of non-financial reporting must be significantly improved to ensure its effectiveness. The principle of double materiality of information – financial and non-financial – is crucial. Green finance provides the entire financial system with instruments to accomplish its transition. It also avoids both a “niche” and a lax approach that are conducive to greenwashing and damaging to the sector growth, and, ultimately, to the transitional objective of green finance. As a source of systemic risk, and in view of the challenges of financing the transition, the aim is to ensure that the concept of sustainable finance remains purposeful by integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) “filters” into the overall operation of capital markets.

There are many risks of intentional or unintentional greenwashing for market actors: making wrong investment choices, because they are ill-informed about the real nature of sustainability; seeing their reputation discredited in their clients and fund managers’ eyes; undermining trust and the fundamentals of green finance.

The European Union (EU) has taken the lead on these issues. The European Commission’s (EC) Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth of March 2018 aims to reorient capital flows towards a more sustainable economy, integrate sustainability into financial institutions’ risk management and promote transparency and long-term awareness within financial institutions. This Action Plan includes numerous instruments, such as an Ecolabel for financial products, the development of a European standard for green bonds, a so-called “Disclosure” regulation legislating on non-financial reporting by market actors, and the clarification of banking and investment advisors’ duties in terms of integrating ESG factors and incorporating sustainability into prudential requirements for banks and insurers. One of the main instruments is the European “taxonomy” for sustainable economic activities, which is intended to establish a common language for greening the financial sector by covering a wide range of actors and activities, at least on a voluntary basis. This future taxonomy has major global potential that could boost the EU’s normative power. Consequently, these challenges are now the focus of the G20 and its Financial Stability Board (FSB), and that of the United Nations.

The EU’s sustainable finance strategy is over the long term, striving to take as comprehensive a view as possible of financial regulation and climate change, and therefore fully redirect capital flows towards financing the transition. The next few months will be critical for the future of the sector, with work continuing on the European taxonomy, the preparation of delegated acts subsequent to the final recommendations prepared by the EU’s Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (TEG), and the implementation of the European Green Deal.

 

[1]. “Scientific Uncertainty”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 797, October 29, 2019, available at: www.nature.com; M. L. Weitzman, “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change”, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011, pp. 275-292, available at: https://doi.org.

Pauline DESCHRYVER Charlotte GARDES Théo MARET Clémence PELEGRIN
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South Korea’s Hydrogen Strategy and Industrial Perspectives

Date de publication
25 March 2020
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South Korea is a hydrogen (H2) frontrunner. The world’s first commercial fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) was launched by the South Korean car manufacturer Hyundai (Tucson i×35) in 2013.

POSCO Energy, South Korea’s largest private energy producer, completed the world’s largest fuel cell manufacturing plant in 2015. When President Moon took office in 2018, the new government identified H2 as a new growth engine, and pledged to turn the country into a H2 economy.

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The Middle East: The Economy in The Race for Power

Date de publication
23 March 2020
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Middle Eastern geopolitics is currently undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring that undermined authoritarian governance, and triggered the competition for power against a backdrop of American withdrawal. 

Dorothée SCHMID Amine BENBERNOU
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The Gulf Economies and Energy Transition

Date de publication
10 March 2020
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The economies of the Persian Gulf are highly dependent on their petrol exports, particularly to Asia.

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The Gulf: from Geopolitics to Plain Politics

Date de publication
10 March 2020
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The geopolitical shadow of the Gulf now extends far beyond the Middle East as a function the external dealings of Iran and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.


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The Gulf: New Center of the Middle East?

Date de publication
10 March 2020
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Amid the shift in major powers, the Persian Gulf is asserting its position at the heart of the Middle East.

Japan’s Trade Policy in the Midst of Uncertainty

Date de publication
26 February 2020
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The multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been of the utmost importance for Japan’s trade policy.

Yuka FUKUNAGA

Saudi Arabia’s Policy in Africa : Vectors and Objectives

Date de publication
06 February 2020
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Until recently, Saudi Arabia was the country out of the Gulf countries that had the greatest number of diplomatic missions in Africa (27[1]).

 

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China and the New Geopolitics of Technical Standardization

Date de publication
27 January 2020
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China is rapidly emerging as a formidable power in the development of technical standards, transforming the international standard-setting landscape and reintroducing an element of geopolitics into what are too often considered as benign, technical processes. 

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Sanctions and the End of Trans-Atlanticism. Iran, Russia, and the Unintended Division of the West

Date de publication
23 January 2020
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Sanctions have become the dominant tool of statecraft of the United States and other Western states, especially the European Union, since the end of the Cold War.

Rawi ABDELAL Aurélie BROS
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Korea in Africa: Between Soft Power and Economic Interests

Date de publication
10 January 2020
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Through development assistance and economic engagement, South Korea has sought to project itself as a different kind of partner for Africa. In reality, it is not so unique.

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The Future of Europe in the Context of Sino-American Competition - Foreword

Date de publication
30 December 2019
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In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the speech by Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Economy and Finance.

Bruno LE MAIRE
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The Future of Europe in the Context of Sino-American Competition - Foreword

Date de publication
30 December 2019
Accroche

In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the speech by Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Economy and Finance.

Bruno LE MAIRE
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The Crucial Challenge of Cyberthreats

Date de publication
30 December 2019
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In this special issue of Politique étrangère devoted to the proceedings of the conference organized by Ifri on April 10, 2019, in the Grand Amphitheater of the Sorbonne, on the occasion of its fortieth anniversary, discover the debate moderated by Marc Hecker between Thomas Gomart and Jean-Louis Gergorin.

Thomas GOMART Marc HECKER Jean-Louis GERGORIN
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Law: An Economic and Geopolitical Weapon of the United States

Date de publication
10 December 2019
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From the 2000s, the United States has developed an extraterritorial legal policy that began with fighting corruption but has since broadened considerably.

Marion LEBLANC-WOHRER
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China’s Smart Cities: The New Geopolitical Battleground

Date de publication
18 December 2019
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“Smart city” development has become a fashionable policy and research topic. A growing number of central and local governments in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, in partnership with companies from diverse sectors (construction, transport, energy, water, etc), consulting firms, NGOs and experts, are now developing smart-city-related projects. 

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The European Union in Crisis: What Challenges Lie ahead and Why It Matters for Korea

Date de publication
20 May 2019
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The EU is currently undergoing serious challenges from inside such as Brexit and strengthening Euroscepticism, rising populism and changing political geography, anti-immigration moods as well as retarded economic recovery.

Heungchong KIM Françoise NICOLAS

The European Battery Alliance is Moving up a Gear

Date de publication
02 May 2019
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French battery cell manufacturer Saft and Opel, the German subsidiary of automaker PSA Group, are finalising the details of a major investment project in battery cell manufacturing. Is the European Union (EU) finally challenging Asia’s dominance on battery cells production? What chances of success for the European Battery Alliance (EBA) and what implications for the EU industrial policy?

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China’s Belt & Road and the World: Competing Forms of Globalization

Date de publication
24 April 2019
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China increasingly sees its flagship foreign policy project as a tool for restructuring global governance and a vector for promoting a new form of globalization.

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The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System

Date de publication
20 March 2019
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Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the international community sought new stability in the financial system and the assurance of sustained growth. The crisis that began in 2007-2008 has revealed weaknesses that affected advanced economies first and foremost. Efforts have since been made to consolidate the international financial architecture, to coordinate macroeconomic policy, and to improve foreign exchange relations, even if this latter objective has proven complex.

Jean-Claude TRICHET

Asia–Africa Growth Corridor at the crossroads of business and geopolitics

Date de publication
08 November 2018
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The Asia–Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) — a Japan–India initiative to promote connectivity between Asia and East Africa and encourage joint projects in Africa — is often misrepresented. All too often, the AAGC is depicted as a political move aimed exclusively at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

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Trade Wars: A French Perspective

Date de publication
31 May 2018
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The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum announced by the United States in March would, if applied, have little direct impact on the French economy, but rather point toward a broader trend of protectionism and economic nationalism and a widening gap in transatlantic relations that is likely to have far-reaching implications for France.

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Chinese Investment in Europe. A Country-Level Approach

Date de publication
14 December 2017
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Chinese investments in Europe have surged in recent years, becoming both a source of hope and growing concern across the continent.

John SEAMAN Mikko HUOTARI Miguel OTERO-IGLESIAS

Japan's Revived African Policy

Date de publication
20 June 2017
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By organising TICAD (Tokyo International Conference on African Development) for the first time in Africa in August 2016, Japan intended to accelerate and deepen its relationship with the continent. 

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The EU and Innovation: When Business Meets Politics

Date de publication
16 November 2016
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Innovation, entrepreneurship, growth and competitiveness go hand in hand. This short paper looks at two areas where the EU plays a role to help drive innovation: regulation and financing.

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Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative
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To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.

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