Search on Ifri.org

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations

Papers
|
Date de publication
|
Référence taxonomie collections
Asie Visions
Image de couverture de la publication
An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations
Accroche

The Direction of Trade Statistics by IMF is the most representative statistical data for bilateral trade with North Korea. However, IMF statistics underestimate North Korea's international trade since they do not classify inter-Korean trade as international trade. Therefore, this study restructures statistics on North Korea by combining the IMF and inter-Korean trade data, and it analyzes the structure of North Korea's international trade. In addition, it conducts a unique analysis of trade structures, since other studies have not analyzed production processes in North Korean trade.

This analysis identifies six main characteristics of North Korea's trade:

Corps analyses

First, import volume is much greater than export volume during the period between 1989 and 2008. North Korea has suffered from chronic trade deficits that worsened in the 2000s. The amount of trade deficit is almost equal to the amount of exports. Thus, the study of North Korean efforts to overcome its trade deficit is important for understanding the economic structure of North Korea. Unfortunately, it is hard to understand North Korean methods for overcoming the deficit due to lack of available statistics. Thus, based on our data, we can infer that North Korea resorts to unconventional methods to overcome the trade deficit, such as illegal missile trade.

Second, North Korean international trade is highly dependent on South Korea and China. Beyond these two nations, North Korea traded with various small and medium-size nations in North Africa and Central and South America.

Third, the structure of North Korean exports has gone through dramatic change, as the proportion of manufactured electronic components, radio, TV, and communications equipment in North Korea's total exports has increased. This change is due to support measures from the North Korean government, such as the establishment of the Ministry of Electronics Industry, to nurture its leading export industry.

Fourth, imports of machinery, electronic components, and communications equipment have increased rapidly as the North Korean export structure has changed. The import of products such as machinery and equipment indicates that North Korea has been improving and modernizing its aging industrial infrastructure. However, considering that the proportions of energy, food, and beverage still remain high in total imports, this study implies that North Korea is focusing on the import of products that are necessary in the near future rather than emphasizing enhancement of its export competitiveness.

Fifth, the production process analysis points out that the export of IT-related products has increased recently as a proportion of total exports. However, these products are found to be relatively low-level consumption goods, so the proportion of components is still low. During the period chosen for our analysis (1992-2006), the import of capital goods decreased, but the import of consumption goods increased. In other words, the trend shows that North Korean imports are merely being conducted to deal with short-term scarcity rather than to nurture industrial infrastructure. Unless North Korea normalizes the economy and enhances export competitiveness by importing capital goods, North Korea's international export will soon encounter limits. It is more likely that trade deficits will continue to worsen.

Sixth, the economic cooperation between North Korea and China is expected to strengthen and this increase in cooperation will affect the bilateral trade between them. In the past, their bilateral trade mainly consisted of raw materials and food, but the recent tendency has been to trade a diversity of goods, such as machinery, transformers, and IT-related products. The diversification of the products being traded signifies that China is the main supplier of North Korea's raw materials and products. Also, North Korea will depend on China as a consumption market for North Korean products.

 

 

Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

ISBN / ISSN

978-2-86592-757-9

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations

Decoration
Author(s)
Image principale
Asia Map
Center for Asian Studies
Accroche centre

Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.

The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands. 

The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.

The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.

Image principale

France’s maritime security cooperation in the Pacific

Date de publication
06 December 2024
Accroche

France plays a significant role in Pacific maritime security, particularly through the active participation of its overseas territories and the contribution of its stationed armed forces to regional cooperation initiatives.

Image principale

Taiwan’s Rising Space Program: Building Up Industry, Supporting National Security

Date de publication
13 November 2024
Accroche

Taiwan, known for its leadership in semiconductors and information and communications technology (ICT), is now making significant strides in the space industry. While historically modest, Taiwan’s space program has seen a transformation since 2020, driven by President Tsai Ing-wen’s commitment to expanding the country’s space capabilities. Key milestones include the passage of the Space Development Act and the creation of the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), which has bolstered the resources and visibility of Taiwan’s space ambitions.

Image principale

AI and Technical Standardization in China and the EU: Diverging priorities and the need for common ground

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Given the highly disruptive potential of AI, global cooperation on AI safety and governance is imperative, and yet the deeply transformational potential of AI also ensures that a high level of competition and systemic rivalry is likely unavoidable. How can the EU best manage its complex relationship with China in the field of AI so as to ensure a necessary level of cooperation in spite of competition and rivalry?

Image principale

China’s Quest for a Quantum Leap

Date de publication
22 October 2024
Accroche

The global race to harness quantum science is intensifying. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security.

How can this study be cited?

Image de couverture de la publication
An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations
An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations, from Ifri by
Copy
Image de couverture de la publication
An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations

An Analysis of North Korea's Principal Trade Relations