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Kenya’s 2022 Election. Ruto’s Win and Intra-Elite Struggles

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Kenya’s 2022 Election. Ruto’s Win and Intra-Elite Struggles
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This paper aims to highlight how and why William Ruto won the 2022 presidential elections against Raila Odinga by focusing on his political strategy before, during and after the campaign. 

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Supporters of William Ruto celebrate the Supreme Court verdict in Nakuru, Kenya – September 5, 2022
Supporters of William Ruto celebrate the Supreme Court verdict in Nakuru, Kenya – September 5, 2022
Supporters of William Ruto celebra© James Wakibia/SOPA Images/Shutterstock.com
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The 2022 electoral contests took place in an unprecedented political setting. For the first time in Kenyan history, a presidential candidate won an election without the support of the incumbent president and the state apparatus. The paper discusses in detail the relative success of Ruto’s populist narrative in putting the economy and a more vulnerable electorate – the Kenyan “hustlers” – back at the heart of Kenyan politics. It also emphasizes the new political and ethnic alignments that have enabled and followed his win, with a focus on the intra-elite struggles that have occurred since he started campaigning. It also discusses the power consolidation strategies of the new regime in the domestic, regional, and international spheres.

The first part of this article delves into the appeal of the “hustler narrative” whose message was one of “economic upliftment” for Kenya’s “hustlers” – the working classes comprising small-scale farmers and petty traders. This section analyses the political campaign waged by the two camps from this angle, questioning the factors that favored Ruto’s win. It argues that the effectiveness of the “hustler narrative” lay in the ability of a “new elite” to present itself as ascendant from the ranks of the Kenyan masses and in touch with their interests, while portraying its opponents as a dynastic “old elite” responsible for Kenyans’ economic woes and far removed from their struggles. Ruto’s use of evangelical Christianity to legitimize his rhetoric in his campaign and his notable recourse to evangelical churches as an alternative means of patronage testifies to this strategy. Despite the economy being at the core of the campaign, ethnic politics still played a crucial role in these elections, as evidenced by the choice of Kikuyu running mates by the two presidential candidates.

The second part of the article focuses on the first eight months in power of William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza coalition. We argue that despite his promises of change in political culture, ties of loyalty and patronage have been the main basis of his political entourage. The new administration officials are serving as channels of state patronage to the masses, a tactic that the regime has also used to gain a clear majority in the country’s parliament. The article also posits that the above policies and changes in government have, respectively, adversely affected the economic interests of the elite in the opposition – primarily those who belong to Kenya’s old independence elite – and the masses, leading to protests held against the incumbent regime from March to April 2023. It further observes that the new regime has used Christian ideology, evangelical churches, and the rule of law as a means of legitimizing its position.

We conclude our account of William Ruto’s first eight months of in power by assessing foreign policy shifts to clarify the role Kenya is expected to play within the East African region as well as in international diplomacy over the next five years. It is our argument that these changes have been mostly informed by the administration’s economic recovery agenda. Beyond the general continuity of the country’s historically pragmatic approach in foreign policy, we also demonstrate that the new ruling elite’s interests are playing a major role in driving these changes.

 

Note produced by the French Institute for Research in Africa (IFRA-Nairobi) for the Directorate General of International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS) of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces as part of the East and Central Africa Observatory in partnership with IFRI.

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979-10-373-0786-6

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Kenya’s 2022 Election. Ruto’s Win and Intra-Elite Struggles

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Macro view of a political map of Ethiopia
East and Central Africa Observatory
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The East and Central Africa Observatory is a 3-year research project (2023-2025) that Ifri is carrying out jointly with the French Institute of Research in Africa (IFRA) in Nairobi for the French Ministry of Defense, and more specifically its International Relations and Strategy Division (DGRIS). This observatory focuses on the main political, security and geopolitical developments taking place in the geographical areas covered by itself. This is achieved through the regular production of research notes, in English or French and the organization of an annual seminar around a key theme. For our research notes and conferences, we call on internationally acknowledged experts in the topics covered. This Observatory began in 2016, under the title of Observatory of Central and Southern Africa within Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa Center. 55 notes were drafted between 2016 and 2020.

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Subsaharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
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Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.

The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.

The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.

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Date de publication
23 October 2024
Accroche

Over the last two decade, the growing influence of Evangelicals and their leaders in electoral politics is one of the most significant developments in the East African region and the Horn of Africa. Their numerical and demographic growth seems to go together with their growing influence in these countries’ political scenes, especially in the spheres of electoral politics, society, and governance. 

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Gulf States: A Paradoxical Economic Lifeline for Sudan

Date de publication
09 September 2024
Accroche

For decades, Gulf states have provided crucial financial assistance to Sudan. Gulf interest in Sudan is driven by economic benefits and geopolitical competition, though each country has its own interests and approach. 

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Cross-border Dynamics in Terrorist Mobility and Infiltration along the East African Coastlines

Date de publication
12 March 2024
Accroche

This paper looks at how terrorism has thrived in the East African region, the evolving nature of criminality and terrorism, and the crime-terror nexus in the coastal and maritime areas of East Africa. The emphasis of the analysis is on the Kenyan coastal regions with a focus on three counties, namely, Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu.

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Sudan in Turkey’s African Geopolitics: A Sotto Voce Experience in a Coveted Region

Date de publication
15 November 2023
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Since the launch of the Opening Plan to Africa in 2003, Turkey's African policy has spread to the whole of the African continent, where its involvement is distinguished by its scope and diversity.

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Kenya’s 2022 Election. Ruto’s Win and Intra-Elite Struggles
Supporters of William Ruto celebrate the Supreme Court verdict in Nakuru, Kenya – September 5, 2022
Supporters of William Ruto celebra© James Wakibia/SOPA Images/Shutterstock.com

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