Turkey
Analysis of Turkey's internal and external dynamics as a regional power, with a focus on diplomatic, economic and political issues linked to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's third term in office.
Related Subjects
The Taboo of the Armenian Genocide, Part Two: The Politics of American Avoidance
The Armenian Genocide has been a topic of trials and tribulations in American politics for quite some time. It has been an issue in Presidential campaigns, like that of now-President Obama: when he promised to recognize it. It has been the topic of votes, such as the most recent 2010 vote which failed to recognize the genocide. It has been a funnel for interests, lobbying, and foreign investment. With Germany recently recognizing the genocide and an American Presidential election at hand, speculation of American recognition is once again at a high. As politicians debate the issue, or avoid it altogether, the American political system moves forward. There are various key players in American politics, but in specificity to the Armenian Genocide issue, there are the Armenian, Turkish, and Israeli lobbies, and the constituencies they represent.
The Taboo of the Armenian Genocide, Part One: Global Reaction and American Inaction
In the Syrian refugee crisis enveloping Europe, Turkey has become the bottleneck toward which migrants are flowing into Europe, a factor increasingly important for Germany in particular. Relations have been strained, however, due to disputes over the possibility of lifting visa requirements.
Revisiting Relations 100 Years After the Armenian Genocide
The 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide will not mark a great historical moment in Armenian-Turkish relations.
Turkey and the Armenian Genocide: from Denial to Recognition?
At the close of World War I, denial of the Armenian genocide became a central point in Turkey’s official doctrine.
Russia’s New Energy Alliances: Mythology versus Reality
This brief paper analyzes the energy relations between Russia and its “new” energy partnerships – with China and Turkey – that the Kremlin tends to publicly promote as an alternative to energy relations with the West.
The Kurds: a Channel of Russian Influence in the Middle East?
With the Syrian crisis entering its fifth year, the changing security context in Syria and Iraq since the summer of 2014 has highlighted the increasingly important role played by the Kurds as a fighting force against Islamic State (IS). In a more general context of renewed Russian influence in the Middle East since the late 2000s, the development of Russo-Kurdish relations has entered a new phase since the beginning of the current decade.
"Russia New Energy Alliances: Mythology versus Reality", Interview with Vladimir MILOV
"Past year has been marked not only with the Ukrainian crisis and unprecedented tensions in political relations between Russia and the West, but also with somewhat radical change of Moscow’s approach to international energy affairs. Widely promoted new energy partnerships with countries like China and Turkey were supposed to demonstrate that Russia has a choice of alternatives for mass-scale international energy cooperation, as compared to previous domination of European dimension, and if West wishes to cut ties with the Kremlin, Russia has somewhere else to go.
Does Russia really have an option of developing new international energy partnerships comparable in scale and significance to those with Europe as the consumer of energy, and with Western IOCs as key agents helping to secure further exploration and development of Russian oil & gas resources?"
Coalition or snap poll: What next for Turkey?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP suffered a stunning defeat in the latest parliamentary poll with the party losing its absolute majority for the first time in 13 years. The question now is whether it can hold on to power.
Turkey: the Sèvres Syndrome, or the Endless War
For Turks, the Treaty of Sèvres symbolises the dissolution of the empire and the carving up of Turkey by foreign powers.
The "Arab Spring" has contributed to somewhat strain ties between Moscow and Ankara
Will there be a significant change of policy, in Russia itself and in its foreign affairs, during Putin's third term as president?
- For the past two months, Putin has published a series of seven pre-electoral articles in Russian newspapers. Each of these focus on a particular area of Russia's policy - its social, economic, defense policy, its external relations, etc.
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Turkey 2050 Program
On the political front, the state of Turkish democracy worries observers. Turkey has withdrawn from the Istanbul Convention, and individual freedoms are tightening. Society is becoming polarized: public opinion is growing tense over the presence of 4 million Syrians in the country, and the management of the perennial Kurdish issue is spilling over beyond its eastern borders. The fatigue of the ruling party raises the question of the president’s succession, with or without the AKP. After two decades of rapid economic progress (an average annual growth of 5% since 2002) and despite relative resilience to the health crisis, economic indicators are now flashing red. Expansionary fiscal policies have deepened public debt, household debt is spiraling, inflation is skyrocketing (80% in August 2022), and the Turkish lira continues its decline (-55% against the dollar in one year). Turkey’s status as a regional power is becoming more entrenched over time. The early diplomatic expansionism of the AKP, based on soft power, is now being complemented by a more assertive hard power. The prospect of EU membership is fading, and the balance of power within NATO is shifting. Active in numerous crises (Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Karabakh, Somalia...), Turkey is repositioning itself at the center of the international stage, imposing its own agenda.
The Turkey 2050 Program is structured around three themes that will guide the reflection over two years of work: domestic politics, the economy, and diplomacy. The program aims to build a model for understanding the Turkey of tomorrow in order to establish relevant scenarios to guide the strategy of businesses in Turkey. Its work involves monitoring and informing our partners of indicator developments throughout the year, through monthly strategic briefings, and providing access to a network of experts to facilitate the integration of private actors into a multidisciplinary community with complementary expertise, within an ecosystem of Turkish institutions.