On the political front, the state of Turkish democracy worries observers. Turkey has withdrawn from the Istanbul Convention, and individual freedoms are tightening. Society is becoming polarized: public opinion is growing tense over the presence of 4 million Syrians in the country, and the management of the perennial Kurdish issue is spilling over beyond its eastern borders. The fatigue of the ruling party raises the question of the president’s succession, with or without the AKP. After two decades of rapid economic progress (an average annual growth of 5% since 2002) and despite relative resilience to the health crisis, economic indicators are now flashing red. Expansionary fiscal policies have deepened public debt, household debt is spiraling, inflation is skyrocketing (80% in August 2022), and the Turkish lira continues its decline (-55% against the dollar in one year). Turkey’s status as a regional power is becoming more entrenched over time. The early diplomatic expansionism of the AKP, based on soft power, is now being complemented by a more assertive hard power. The prospect of EU membership is fading, and the balance of power within NATO is shifting. Active in numerous crises (Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Karabakh, Somalia...), Turkey is repositioning itself at the center of the international stage, imposing its own agenda.

The Turkey 2050 Program is structured around three themes that will guide the reflection over two years of work: domestic politics, the economy, and diplomacy. The program aims to build a model for understanding the Turkey of tomorrow in order to establish relevant scenarios to guide the strategy of businesses in Turkey. Its work involves monitoring and informing our partners of indicator developments throughout the year, through monthly strategic briefings, and providing access to a network of experts to facilitate the integration of private actors into a multidisciplinary community with complementary expertise, within an ecosystem of Turkish institutions.