Turkey
Analysis of Turkey's internal and external dynamics as a regional power, with a focus on diplomatic, economic and political issues linked to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's third term in office.
Related Subjects
'Turkey Is Using Syria to Show its Strength - it's All About Image'
Turkey is looking to revive a fragile ceasefire in Aleppo, and the planned evacuation of civilians, which brokered with Russia. But why is Ankara, a staunch opponent of Damascus, interested in helping to create an outcome that would benefit President Assad? Amanda Morrow put the question to Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkish studies programme at the French Institute of International Relations.
"Russia New Energy Alliances: Mythology versus Reality", Interview with Vladimir MILOV
"Past year has been marked not only with the Ukrainian crisis and unprecedented tensions in political relations between Russia and the West, but also with somewhat radical change of Moscow’s approach to international energy affairs. Widely promoted new energy partnerships with countries like China and Turkey were supposed to demonstrate that Russia has a choice of alternatives for mass-scale international energy cooperation, as compared to previous domination of European dimension, and if West wishes to cut ties with the Kremlin, Russia has somewhere else to go.
Does Russia really have an option of developing new international energy partnerships comparable in scale and significance to those with Europe as the consumer of energy, and with Western IOCs as key agents helping to secure further exploration and development of Russian oil & gas resources?"
Coalition or snap poll: What next for Turkey?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP suffered a stunning defeat in the latest parliamentary poll with the party losing its absolute majority for the first time in 13 years. The question now is whether it can hold on to power.
The "Arab Spring" has contributed to somewhat strain ties between Moscow and Ankara
Will there be a significant change of policy, in Russia itself and in its foreign affairs, during Putin's third term as president?
- For the past two months, Putin has published a series of seven pre-electoral articles in Russian newspapers. Each of these focus on a particular area of Russia's policy - its social, economic, defense policy, its external relations, etc.
Is the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Rising from the Ashes?
The victory of the CHP [Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, Republican People’s Party] in the Turkish municipal elections of March 2024 firmly established it as the leading party of opposition to the Islamic-conservative AKP [Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, Justice and Development Party], which has been in power since 2002.
"A Capital City Will Always Be a Capital City”: Konya’s Rise Under the AKP’s Rule
While the May 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections looked as a difficult test for the flagging Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), they eventually held on to power, demonstrating their remarkable foothold in the Turkish context. The party notably recorded one of its highest scores in Konya, confirming the massive and uninterrupted support of this two-million inhabitants central Anatolian city for Turkish political Islam.
Sudan in Turkey’s African Geopolitics: A Sotto Voce Experience in a Coveted Region
Since the launch of the Opening Plan to Africa in 2003, Turkey's African policy has spread to the whole of the African continent, where its involvement is distinguished by its scope and diversity.
Türkiye’s Stifled Ambitions
As its elections have unfolded this spring, Türkiye has again shown itself to be symptomatic of the times. Across the world, numerous political regimes oscillate between democratic forms of government and an authoritarian concentration of power; impressive periods of growth give way to inflation and recession; and international deregulation gives rise to widespread diplomacy in an effort to juggle a myriad of shifting political loyalties. Faced with the war in Ukraine, Ankara is playing a strong hand by enlarging its areas of presence and intervention. Türkiye is more important to its partners than ever, independent of its eventual domestic trajectory.
Western discourse predicted the advent of Chinese dominance in the very short term, but events have taken a rather different turn. The drivers that enabled the unprecedented growth of recent decades seem to have run out of steam. Moreover, the outcome of Beijing’s economic strategies is still uncertain, in a context shaped primarily by U.S. policies. China’s influence in the future will be considerable, but the direction its rebound will take remains unclear.
For Europeans, the events in Ukraine and the thorny issue of the Sino-American rivalry cannot paper over the other security problems we face: On what common vision of our history and future will we build the Europe of tomorrow? Has drug trafficking already changed the nature of our societies? Can we afford to turn away from instances of destabilization in Africa, from the Horn to the Sahel?
The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: An Opportunity for Türkiye
In response to the Ukrainian conflict, Ankara, which had previously developed a special relationship with both sides based on history and economic interests, adopted a balancing strategy of active neutrality.
Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections
The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey.
Israel and Hezbollah: The New Strategic Equation
After the war between Israel and Hezbollah during the summer of 2006, a deterrence strategy was established between the two parties. Occasional subsequent crises have thereby been contained and have been prevented from escalating into extensive confrontations.
Turkey: the Sèvres Syndrome, or the Endless War
For Turks, the Treaty of Sèvres symbolises the dissolution of the empire and the carving up of Turkey by foreign powers.
Turkey's re-imagined neighborhood policy after the Arab Spring
Joshua W. Walker was a speaker at the international conference on “The international consequences of the Arab Spring” held at Ifri on March 13th, 2012. This paper is a follow up on his oral intervention.
Is Turkey an Economic Exception?
This roundtable dealt with the specificities of Turkey"s economy, which is completing major economic achievements in particularly difficult times. François Faure analyzed the risks of an economic backlash following the European crisis; Turkey appears indeed in a weaker position than in 2008 and difficult times could lie ahead. Esen Çağlar pointed out how Turkey progressed from a low-technology to medium-technology economy, thus ensuring considerable levels of growth. Yet, a renewed reform agenda is needed if Turkey wants to maintain its economic performance. Deniz Ünal addressed the issue of economic governance under the AKP and the consistency of their economic policy agenda. In any case, Europe will most certainly play a role in the country"s economic future. According to Rémi Bourgeot, the Middle East cannot provide an alternative to European markets even if it offers interesting opportunities for the Turkish South East. Turkey"s future growth will also depend on its capacity to impose itself as a corridor between Europe and its neighbours energy resources.
Turkey and the EU : current key issues
Report written by Séverine Neervoort, Intern, Ifri Brussels.
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Related centers and programs
Turkey 2050 Program
The Turkey 2050 Program develops a forward-looking analysis of the country to anticipate its dynamics over the next 30 years. The reflection is structured around three key themes:
• Domestic politics, to assess the stability of the AKP regime and the prospects for political change;
• The economy, to understand Turkey's capacity for recovery, the evolution of its production model, and its regional integration prospects;
• Foreign policy, to monitor the rise of Turkey's diplomacy and military capabilities, and to map the country's new spheres of influence.
This research, funded by companies and institutions active in Turkey, is based on field missions that aim to shed light on the blind spots and lesser-known areas of the Turkish landscape. Program partners benefit from personalized monitoring of relevant indicators to inform their decision-making, supported by monthly strategic briefings, sectoral reports, and access to a network of Turkish and French experts. The exchanges surrounding the program ultimately seek to define the concept of "Turkish risk" in a broad sense, in order to adapt our working methods accordingly.
Turkey/Middle East Program
Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.
The programme has the following objectives:
- Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
- Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
- Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
- Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.
The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.