Tensions are soaring across the Middle East after Washington vowed to respond to a drone attack by Iran-backed militants that killed three American soldiers. Conflicts across the region have escalated dramatically since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October. But does that mean a wider war is likely?

The Sunday strike, which U.S. officials say was launched at a base in Jordan by an Iran-backed group from across the border in Syria, comes as a U.S.-led naval coalition fights Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.

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Hawks in Washington cite this as evidence that Biden could be much stronger with Iran and not trigger more serious retaliation.

Still, Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the IFRI think tank in Paris, said the U.S. is unlikely to strike Iran directly unless it can be proven that Tehran ordered the attack.

“The answer from the U.S. will likely be strikes on [Iran's] partners,” she said.

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Will Washington be supported by its allies?

Aside from the consistently loyal U.K. — not likely. Consensus is growing that without a common strategy and with divergent interests in the region, Washington’s European allies won't become actively involved.

“There is no appetite among European countries for a major conflict with Iran in the Middle East,” Fayet said. “Europe should be concerned but it’s difficult to deal with this at the same time as Ukraine, so it’s likely the Europeans will leave the U.S. to resolve these problems by themselves.”

That's not to say European allies aren't stepping up in some way.

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> Read the article in Politico