Donald Trump won the 2016 Republican primaries thanks to the mobilization of a specific part of the electorate: the white, non-college-educated, lower middle-class.

Since the announcement of the Nord Stream 2 project in June 2015, the debate around the benefits of this project for Europe is raging, putting forward political, economic and commercial arguments. 

European clean transport policy envisages the development of charging infrastructures for electric vehicles within a European e-mobility framework. After the downturns of the Volkswagen scandal and the prevailing low European carbon price, the EU is bringing forward car passenger transport electrification. This requires new business models based on interoperability.

German agriculture is characterized by regionally different farm structures but in the midst of a transformation process. Rapid structural change is seen especially in animal production. Total production increased during the past decade due to intensification but the number of labour force decreased. Increasing land prices are an indicator for the sectoral growth. The situation has changed at the moment. Farm income has decreased rapidly due to very low producer prices.

This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.

RAMSES 2017. A Fragmented World, prepared by IFRI’s research team and selected external experts, offers an in-depth and up to date analysis of global geopolitics.

This 35^th edition focuses on three key issues: the spread of jihadist terrorism, the Middle East’s disintegration, and doubts about the European project. With the world’s balance of power and economic foundations shifting, the next few months are likely to be decisive for our future. The growing diversity and complexity of our world is startling, which is why it is important to rethink our analyses and means of action.

Only recently, Latin America seemed to embody an inexorable movement towards political democratization, towards a decrease in stark inequalities as well as greater involvement in the global economy. But the dream remains unrealized.

During the 2000s, Brazil's economy took off, with growth driven primarily by strong Chinese demand for commodities. Within a decade, the Brazilian middle class increased from 30% to 50% of the population.

In the space of 20 years, under the leadership of the former Emir, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, in power between 1995 and 2013, Qatar became a country which matters due to its status, obtained in 2006, as the leading world producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Post-sanctions Russia-China energy relations: what expectations?

From the very beginning, the armed conflict that broke out in the Donbass in the spring of 2014 drew in right-wing radicals, on the Ukrainian as well as on the Russian side. Organised ultra-nationalist groups and individual activists established their own units of volunteers or joined existing ones.

On Tuesday July 12th, after three years of deliberations, the Permanent Court of Arbitration finally delivered its verdict on the conflict opposing the Philippines and China over status of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The judgment is historic, as it goes far beyond the expectations of the involved parties and observers. 

Last February, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed the launch of the construction of a Chinese military base in Djibouti. For a long time, Chinese officials had insisted that China would never build military bases or to station troops abroad.

The announcement of Mike Pence as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s running mate on July 15 was decidedly lackluster, if not downright awkward. Far from his normal persona of self-assurance to the point of hubris, Trump seemed uncomfortable and even nervous throughout, shifting plans and issuing contradictory statements in the days leading up to his running mate’s finalization.

As Pence’s name began to circulate last week, Trump signaled his malaise by insisting that the leaks were not a “final, final decision,” revealing his inability to confidently stick to Pence. Trump cancelled his first joint event with Pence scheduled for Friday, citing a desire to pay tribute to the victims of the attack in Nice, France the day prior; regardless, Trump drew attention back to himself and announced his choice on Friday evening anyway, via Twitter. Insiders reported that Trump sought assurance from advisors that Pence was the man for the job, even as Trump’s campaign fielded a last-minute appeal from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

The selection of Pence represents Trump committing himself to the Republican Party and its unification. Alliance building is Trump’s strategy, but drawing in Republicans is risky as it requires shunning others. A polarizing candidate is what Trump feels his campaign needs but comes with the unease of sacrificing his ability to say or do whatever he pleases, Trump’s characteristic trademark.

Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner in the U.S. presidential election, has plans for American foreign policy. Clinton wants ISIS and Bashar Al-Assad out of Syria and to focus on human rights in trade negotiations with China. Now, Clinton and her campaign hope that voters will believe in her vision and her ability to make it happen.

The Network and Information Security (NIS) Directive has been adopted on July 6th, 2016 by the European Parliament, three years after the initial proposal by the European Commission. It paves the way for a much needed common cyber security strategy within the EU. This Edito explains the reasons why the energy industry is particularly vulnerable to cyber attacks, and what tools this new directive brings about to protect European critical infrastructures.

Surprise is a crucial dimension of military tactics, which stems from incertitude inherent to war.

The Armenian Genocide has been a topic of trials and tribulations in American politics for quite some time.  It has been an issue in Presidential campaigns, like that of now-President Obama: when he promised to recognize it. It has been the topic of votes, such as the most recent 2010 vote which failed to recognize the genocide. It has been a funnel for interests, lobbying, and foreign investment. With Germany recently recognizing the genocide and an American Presidential election at hand, speculation of American recognition is once again at a high. As politicians debate the issue, or avoid it altogether, the American political system moves forward. There are various key players in American politics, but in specificity to the Armenian Genocide issue, there are the Armenian, Turkish, and Israeli lobbies, and the constituencies they represent.

What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making. 

In the Syrian refugee crisis enveloping Europe, Turkey has become the bottleneck toward which migrants are flowing into Europe, a factor increasingly important for Germany in particular. Relations have been strained, however, due to disputes over the possibility of lifting visa requirements.

This study addresses the consequences of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports towards Europe, in particular on the strategy of Russia, the EU’s main gas supplier. 

France may be ready to take the initiative again in the EU, but it does not know where to press on.

With the death of Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, the Supreme Court of the United States lost a beacon of conservative thought and one of the most influential American jurists of the last thirty years. The question of his replacement immediately became an issue as the United States looks forward to the presidential election in November. While past nominations to the Supreme Court have been relatively uncontentious, nominations today are affected by the polarization of American politics. 

This study analyses the evolutions of Sweden's energy choices, including in terms of nuclear power policy, carbon tax and renewable energies development. Considered as one of the most outstanding example of successful energy transition, Sweden might well face difficulties similar to those of other European countries in the near future.

China’s rise, US rebalancing in Asia, historic defense reforms in Japan, the adoption of new Guidelines for bilateral cooperation: the Japan-US alliance has reached a turning point in its history.

The German debate about public investment policyfaces a dilemma. The deficits in public infrastructure have grown considerably due to comparatively low investments in recent years. In addition, substantial investments for promising mega-projects, such as the energy transition (“Energiewende”) and broadband expansion are indispensable in a foreseeable future. 

With the Democratic Presidential Nomination in sight, Hillary Clinton must still contend with a continuous conversation about her email practices. How will this scandal, or non-scandal, affect the presidential race yet to come? A look at the perspectives of the American constituency and pending investigations may predict Clinton's likely future... and the future of the American presidency.

Tokyo is known as a pioneer throughout the history of Japan’s environmental policy, often being compared to California in the United States or Paris in France. Following the global trend of growing local initiatives tackling climate change, Tokyo introduced a cap-and-trade scheme in 2010 ahead of a national implementation.

The 2015 terror attacks in France and the ensuing activation by the Ministry of Defense of its homeland protection plan opened a new phase in the long history of the French Army’s involvement in internal security.

Along with a history marked by intervention from external powers, the Middle East is now confronting conflicts which combine political, ethnic and religious dimensions. The United States can not withdraw its “leadership” in the area. Aside from the Syrian question, the next American administration will have to redefine the network of partnerships and alliances in the region and grapple with a multitude of problems, none of which have simple solutions.

This report explores business models for storage solutions that may help the European energy system adapt to new challenges.

This Hot Energy Topic aims at defining and assessing megatrends impacting the future energy system of the European Union (EU) to the year 2050.

The purpose of this paper is to go through the transformations that new modes of energy storage – mostly batteries – are expected to bring to the energy systems. 

Will a divided Middle East become the center of a new “Great Game”? The world’s global powers are aligned in it: the United States, falsely tempted by retraction; Russia, establishing its position in an unexpected state of play, France, destabilized by the contradictions of its own policy… In addition are tussles for regional hegemony between Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

Among Russia’s strategic priorities, Asia traditionally played a secondary role compared to the West. In the mid-1990s, then Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov initiated a rapprochement with China and India. Then, in 2014, deteriorating relations between Russia and the West prompted Moscow to begin its “great pivot to the East”.

Russian military intervention in Syria was not an attempt to exert dominance as a hegemonic power in the Middle East.

Among Russia’s strategic priorities, Asia traditionally played a secondary role compared to the West. In the mid-1990s, then Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov initiated a rapprochement with China and India. Then, in 2014, deteriorating relations between Russia and the West prompted Moscow to begin its “great pivot to the East”.

Pictures are an integral part of the process of conveying the state and character of French-German relations. Such pictures highlight not only justified criticisms but also prejudices and clichés. The use of these pictures has intensified since 2008 because the financial and EU crises heightened resentment between the two countries.

Given the tensions between the EU and its main gas supplier, Russia, the European Commission has been revisiting since 2014 its energy security strategy.

In January 2016, the Kenyan supermarket chain Uchumi has filed bankruptcy for its Ugandan subsidiaries, due to perpetual losses. And they are not alone: companies like Nestlé, Coca Cola or Barclays are slowly pulling out of Africa and recent reports – such as the Global Wealth Databook from Credit Suisse or from the Pew Research Center – suggest that the size of the African middle class may be much smaller than previously thought. So was the hype in recent years about “Africa rising” (Mahajan, 2009) and the African middle class just a bubble? In order to better comprehend the social and economic transformations taking place on the continent, it can prove helpful to look beyond the dazzling facade of economies such as Kenya or South Africa, and into those countries experiencing steady growth, but nevertheless far from including a well established middle class. Their middle classes are not shopping in big malls, driving cars and going on holidays. Rather, these groups are characterized by the improvement of their livelihoods compared to their parents’ generation, in terms of education, income and housing, but they still feel strongly vulnerable, and do not take their new benefits for granted. This has an important effect on their consumption patterns, and may not turn them into the promising new consumers, as they have sometimes been praised to be.