Written by Ifri's research team and its network of associates, the new RAMSES 2016 analyses geopolitics on a worldwide scale. The major theme of this 34th edition is Climate: A new chance? In addition, RAMSES 2016 tackles the insertion of Africa in globalization and the uncertainties of democracy today in post-industrial societies, but also in the South.

Water scarcity in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has traditionally been addressed by finding new ways of producing water. The high costs of desalinated water production are borne by the State through subsidies. As this trend is not environmentally or economically sustainable, new strategies are now giving priority to cost recovery and efficient resource management.

Adaptation issues started to gain momentum from the Copenhagen conference in 2009. Up until then, international negotiations had focused on mitigation policies. However, the increase in weather events and the inadequate efforts to hold back global warming now make adaptation a key issue in discussions around the Paris agreement.

To avoid the pitfalls of historic divisions, climate negotiators decided to go down the self-differentiation route and leave legal matters to be resolved during the last steps of the process. The national contributions drafted by each party provide a robust basis for discussion, but we still need to ensure that these are appropriate and also monitor their implementation. The credibility of the Paris Agreement will be determined by these final procedural trade-offs.  

Are women going to vote massively for Hillary Clinton in 2016, the same way African-Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012?  This paper examines the different aspects of the gender gap in the US, social debates around women's issues and the way the Democratic candidate may approach the different segments of the American electorate.

In the sphere of space research, France-India collaboration began in the early 1960s, with France providing assistance to India’s Rohini sounding rockets programme. Over the years, France has played a constructive role in helping India to develop its ground and space infrastructure, as well as its launching platforms and human resources. In point of fact, France has emerged as one of India’s most dependable partner in the realm of space.

Algeria has appeared strangely calm despite an explosive regional environment. Nevertheless, a number of storm clouds lurk on the horizon: the fall of oil prices in a highly resource-driven economy; a decrease in revenues that have stood to maintain social peace; paralysis of the political system; instability in the Maghreb (Tunisia, Libya…) and the Sahel (Mali…). Algiers is faced with many difficult choices. How should the succession of president Bouteflika be settled in a society that is increasingly depoliticized but that nevertheless contests the regime’s opacity? Is it possible to finally diversify an economy that is still structured on rent from the country’s resources? How can the country protect itself from external disorder? As the major military power in the region, Algeria has followed a path of non-engagement in external affairs for decades. This is no longer viable. At both the internal and external level, the regime will have to demonstrate flexibility in dealing with new, potentially dangerous situations.

This issue of Politique étrangère also deals with two major themes of 2015: the 100 year anniversary of the Armenian genocide, which was a wasted opportunity to link Ankara and Erevan, but has proven to be revealing Turkish contradictions, among other things; the shifting of international migrations, in particular those involving Europe and the Mediterranean region.

A range of other topics are also explored in this issue that strike at the heart of many of the most pressing international debates today: The negotiation of a possible Transtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), Chinese visions of the “New Silk Roads”, the state of Somalia, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, and relations between Muslims states and Islam in France.

When President Bouteflika came to power in 1999, he sought to liberalise the country’s economy. But these reforms were reversed after only a few years.