As the intensification of geopolitical competition points toward increased global fragmentation, the definition of technical standards for future markets and industries will play an important role in determining just how deep the fissures will run. 

At the Wiesbaden Congress in November 2024, Robert Habeck, currently Minister for the Economy and Climate, was nominated as the Green Party’s candidate for the Chancellorship in the early parliamentary elections on February 23, 2025. The party, founded 45 years ago, is now firmly established in the German political landscape. Wishing to turn the page on an unloved ‘‘traffic light’’ coalition, the party is banking on a personal campaign and an optimistic discourse based on the energy transition and social justice.

Founded in 2013, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has become increasingly radical as crises have unfolded. Since 2015-2016 and the massive influx of immigrants into Germany, it has positioned itself as a virulently anti-migrant party and continues to consolidate its foothold in the German political system, particularly in parliaments. While its roots are very strong in the eastern regions, where its main strongholds are located, it is also attracting more and more voters in the west, against an overall backdrop of normalization of the far right and a national context marked by strong economic and political destabilization.

The Free Democratic Party FDP, in great difficulty ahead of the early elections in 2025, is trying to recover after the collapse of the coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Greens. Its wavering position between government and opposition has undermined its credibility, and it is struggling to surpass the 5% threshold.

The 20th legislative period (2021-2024) came to an abrupt end in the Federal Republic, following the dismissal of Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor of the Liberal Democratic Party FDP, Christian Lindner, by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, due to deep political disagreements, in November 2024. 

During the M23 conflict in 2012-2013 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United Nations (UN) took the diplomatic initiative (by initiating the Addis Ababa agreement) and the military initiative (by launching a coordinated counter-offensive with the Congolese army). Since the resurgence of this conflict in 2022, the United Nations, which still has more than 10,000 peacekeepers deployed in eastern DRC, no longer plays any role. 

This report analyzes the prospects of the Caspian Sea region — and its key actors except for Russia and Iran — becoming an important energy hub serving the needs of the European Union (EU). 

At a pivotal moment for the EU, several of its member states are experiencing domestic political and economic crises. Is this hindering collective EU action in response to the challenges posed by Russia, China, and Trump’s administration?