Migrations Between Mexico and the United States: More of the Same or a Headlong Rush?
As Trump prepares to tighten border controls with Mexico and carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, Mexico is questioning the economic consequences of this migration policy and expects to have to negotiate the issue in connection with the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
- Some in Mexico believe that the U.S. announcements of a crackdown on immigration are primarily aimed at domestic audiences, and that their actual implementation will remain manageable due to logistical challenges and the economic cost such measures would impose on certain sectors of the American economy.
- However, several factors raise concerns about a genuine hardening of U.S. policy, the scale of which could far exceed the more optimistic forecasts on the Mexican side.
- Mexico will have to respond to pressure from the United States, absorb the adverse economic and financial impacts of deportations, and manage the flow of migrants—some of whom may choose to settle in the country.
- The Mexican side would prefer to address the migration issue separately, but the United States is likely to insist on including it in a broader negotiation framework, encompassing drug trafficking and, above all, trade relations between the two countries.
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Jean-Louis MARTIN
Associate Research Fellow, Americas Program and Energy and Climate Center, Ifri
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Ifri's work on the Americas region focuses mainly on the United States. Indeed, for more than 20 years, Ifri's Americas Program has provided keys to understanding American society and domestic policy while shedding light on developments in the country's foreign policy, including transatlantic relations and trade issues.
Since 2023, a specific axis on Latin America structures more actively Ifri's research on this region.
Ifri's Canada program was active in 2015 and 2016.
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