Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization
Nuclear weapons have traditionally occupied an important place in Russia’s national security strategy. As Russia and the United States have been reducing their nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War, their relationship has undergone a complex transformation. Russia, however, still considers strategic balance with the United States to be an important element of national security.
Economic Constraint and Ukraine's Security Policy
Since winning the 2010 presidential elections in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych has worked hard to repair Kyiv's relationship with Moscow.
Nordstream: Just-in-time?
Last week the gritty Russian/Ukrainian gas relationship was back in the press. This time the issue appeared to be Ukraine’s efforts to secure lower prices for its consumers - perhaps even on a par with Russia’s domestic consumers. The Ukrainians must surely know that to qualify for those kinds of special prices available previously only to politically compliant neighbors - Ukraine would have to return to some form of pre-Orange Revolution relationship with Mother Russia.
Russian Gas Diplomacy
Thank goodness our early warning systems during the cold war were not structured so we could see the flash at the same time we heard the warning. On Monday, the Russians notified the Europeans under an “Early Warning” agreement negotiated after the last Ukrainian gas cutoff that they had already cut gas flows to Belarus by 15% and that would increase cuts to 85% by the end of the week. Not very good news for the Belarusians who enjoy the most gasified economy in the world - everything there runs on gas.
Russia and Turkey: Rethinking Europe to Contest Outsider Status
International relations in Europe are now entering a period of flux as the legacy of the cold war wanes and the "outsider" countries, notably Russia and Turkey, are rethinking their mutual relations as well as their place in the world.
A Smiling Medveded
In Denmark last Tuesday, President Medvedev said he had a smiling face for the world. Not surprising. The deal he is reported to have done with President Yanukovitch should bring smiles to many Russian faces - mostly in the Kremlin. However, it is unlikely that the President’s namesake in Gazprom, Alexandre Medvedev is smiling because his company’s interests have once again been subordinated to Russia’s foreign policy agenda.
Who Needs OPEC - Russia steps up to the Plate ?
News that Conoco will sell off a significant portion of its Russian holdings is couched in terms of various corporate strategies that make all this perfectly normal. Conoco is said to need cash and will anyway have a 10% share remaining in Lukoil that will provide them some degree of influence in corporate decisions.
Russia, China and the United States: From Strategic Triangularism to the Postmodern Triangle
Over the past decade, there has been much talk about a new world order, in which American "unipolarity" would be superseded by more equal arrangements between the great powers. One such idea is a return to the Russia-China-US triangle. In truth, however, the time for such geopolitical schemes has long passed.
Russia, China and the United States: From Strategic Triangularism to the Postmodern Triangle
Over the past decade, there has been much talk about a new world order, in which American "unipolarity" would be superseded by more equal arrangements between the great powers. One such idea is a return to the Russia-China-US triangle.
Ukraine - A Transit Country in Deadlock? Four Scenarios
Should we consider Ukraine a transit country in deadlock, and reduce its energy role just to that of a transit country? Definitely not, because Ukraine is at once a large gas consumer and producer, and possesses massive storage capacity. But the economic and political situation of the country is alarming, even without considering the possibility of another gas crisis Without such a crisis, however, the event of Ukrainian bankruptcy would attract less broad international attention simply because it would not have direct impact on European gas consumers.
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