The United Arab Emirates in Africa: The Partly Thwarted Ambitions of a New Regional Player
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long-standing ties with African countries, but the implementation of a genuine Africa policy dates back only about 15 years.
Europe/United States: 50 Shades of Dependence
Is Joe Biden’s United States (US) returning to multilateral, traditional diplomacy? This more open stance does not eliminate either its domestic problems or the divergence in interests separating the US from the Europeans: how will open diplomacy fit in with the priority of defending US interests? Will Washington organize a broad anti-Chinese coalition that the Europeans are opposed to? Will sanctions with their resulting effects remain at the heart of US strategy? Will the Europeans be able to assert their sovereignty in the key area of new technologies against the US giants?
RAMSES 2022. Beyond Covid
For its 40th edition, RAMSES 2022. Beyond Covid, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
Les bases de la puissance. Enjeux géopolitiques et stratégiques des bases militaires avancées
Throughout history, great powers have relied upon forward military bases, either to support their interventions in areas of interest, to re-assure allies or to control a territory.
L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration
If Iran is a key player in the Middle East, it is in no small part because of its extensive network of armed militia, which it uses as proxies.
The Middle East: The Economy in The Race for Power
Middle Eastern geopolitics is currently undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring that undermined authoritarian governance, and triggered the competition for power against a backdrop of American withdrawal.
The Gulf: from Geopolitics to Plain Politics
The geopolitical shadow of the Gulf now extends far beyond the Middle East as a function the external dealings of Iran and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.
Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui ? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté
France is one of the few nations in the world to benefit from a permanent global military presence. With more than 10,000 military personnel from all three services, deployed across the five continents and the three main oceanic basins, it benefits from the second largest network of prepositioned forces in the world.
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
War and Democratic Decision Making: How do Democracies Argue and Decide Whether or Not to Intervene in Distant Wars?
What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making.
Russia's Diplomacy in the Middle East: Back to Geopolitics
Moscow's approach to the Middle East has undergone real changes from Soviet times to the present day: it evolved from creating zones of influence against the background of confrontation with the West to seeing the region through the prism of mainly economic interests, and, finally, to Moscow’s current pragmatic view.
Activists Without Borders
Various associations organise trips to Israel and/or to the Palestinian Territories. Someone who has no previous knowledge of the Near East and who takes part in a journey organised by a pro-Israeli group, would return to France with a very different vision of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to that of someone who had travelled with a pro-Palestinian group.
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Après Paris et San Bernardino, le terrorisme dans le débat américain
Both the Paris attacks and the San Bernardino shooting reopened the wound of terrorism in the United States. Although President Obama has not shifted his stance or his strategy on the issue, public opinion is worried and populist rhetoric is ever more present in the campaign for the 2016 election.
Israel and Hezbollah: The New Strategic Equation
After the war between Israel and Hezbollah during the summer of 2006, a deterrence strategy was established between the two parties. Occasional subsequent crises have thereby been contained and have been prevented from escalating into extensive confrontations.
Persistence and Evolutions of the Rentier State Model in Gulf Countries
A general economic model of understanding Middle Eastern states was elaborated by political scientists around the 1980’s, based on the concept of rent as a factor of wealth around which the economic model as much as the governance of energy-rich countries was re-organized. The particular case of GCC’s countries as rentier state has been at the cornerstone of this concept since they own the most important share of energy resources in the world.
John Kerry in the Middle East: from Weak to Hopeful Diplomacy?
In 2013, Barak Obama and John Kerry managed, not without difficulty, to steer Israeli and Palestinian leaders back to peace negotiations. At the same time, Washington re-established dialogue with Tehran in talks aimed at finding a solution to the Iranian nuclear problem.
The Two-State Solution is Still Possible
Many Israelis and Palestinians contest the ‘two-state solution’.
Middle East Oil and Gas Producers: Soon to Be Back in the Lead?
The World Energy Outlook 2013 published by the IEA confirms that despite the rise of unconventional fuels in particular in the US, Middle East will by the mid-2020s retake its place as the world major oil and gas supplier, providing most of the increase in global supplies. Well, there are some big ifs.
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