The European Equation of Nuclear Deterrence, Variables and Possible Solutions
Ever since nuclear weapons were developed by the United States and the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, Europe has lived under the nuclear shadow. A major direct confrontation between “the West” and “the East” could have very likely resulted in the detonation of nuclear weapons on the continent. As the Cold War ended, massive reductions in the US and Soviet arsenals (from 70,300 in 1986 to 13,890 in 2019) and a new security architecture radically transformed the European security environment.
Captain in the Storm: Challenges and Opportunities for the German EU Council Presidency
The German Presidency of the Council of the European Union begins on July 1, 2020 at a time of acute crisis. It is facing unprecedented challenges and organizational constraints in a context marked by high expectations from its European partners.
Covid-19 in Europe-China Relations: A country-level analysis
Analysis from 19 countries reveals the complexities of Europe’s relations with China amid the Covid-19 crisis.
Easing the Lockdown: Some of the Issues
After my first editorial a month ago (it seems like forever!), I am back with some concise remarks.
Perspectives on a Hydrogen Strategy for the European Union
There is now a wide understanding that larger use of clean hydrogen in future can be an important mean to achieve decarbonisation of the European economy.
Accelerating the Energy Transition: The Role of Green Finance and its Challenges for Europe
Green finance has been a burgeoning sector since the Paris Agreement and is at the crossroads of financial, socio-economic and environmental challenges. It is hybrid in nature: it uses financial instruments and focuses on environmental issues, while coming under the wider field of so-called “sustainable” finance that assumes a broader approach with the inclusion of socio-economic and governance challenges. It is a catalyst as it facilitates and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy. It also includes an increasing range of instruments. From green bonds to green indices, green loans and capital raising activities, the sector is growing both quantitatively and qualitatively. So-called “green” issuance debt alone increased fivefold in nearly three years to reach US $ 257 billion in 2019, emphasizing its on-going innovation and attractiveness.
Green finance embraces the various objectives of public and private actors. It also raises major questions about the future of our societies: choosing to finance only sectors that are already “green” entails significant socio-economic risks, such as job losses in high-emitting (brown) sectors and stranded assets. Adopting a sequenced approach potentially amounts to locking in polluting activities in the long term and not achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives (lock-in effect).
In view of the physical risks of climate change (devastation and disasters) and those related to energy transition (stranded assets), climate change is now generally considered as a systematic risk. Public and private actors– institutional investors, banks, regulators, central banks, insurers, credit rating agencies, states, multilateral organizations – are taking action both to better understand the risks posed by climate change, and to capitalize on opportunities in this growing field. Green finance provides the financial sector with instruments to effectively reorient capital towards the low-carbon transition. Against a background of uncertainty about the effects of climate change,[1] green finance also reduces the information asymmetry about risks related to major ecosystem disruptions. The structuring and distribution of “green” products are important growth drivers for many stakeholders and in a wide variety of sectors.
However, many risks and challenges remain: financial risks, specifically related to high levels of subsidies for the production and use of fossil fuels, and the lack of a single carbon price; structural risks, which hamper the economic attractiveness of sustainable activities, particularly in terms of profitability; and unclear political signals, notably resulting in regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the language of green finance remains fragmented and is still relatively vague: there are many reporting frameworks and taxonomies, preventing easy and uniform ownership by stakeholders. Standardized methodologies, requirements and disclosures are critically needed. A common language is required, not only among Europeans but worldwide, to ensure that financing the ecological transition is genuinely effective.
The quality and comparability of non-financial reporting must be significantly improved to ensure its effectiveness. The principle of double materiality of information – financial and non-financial – is crucial. Green finance provides the entire financial system with instruments to accomplish its transition. It also avoids both a “niche” and a lax approach that are conducive to greenwashing and damaging to the sector growth, and, ultimately, to the transitional objective of green finance. As a source of systemic risk, and in view of the challenges of financing the transition, the aim is to ensure that the concept of sustainable finance remains purposeful by integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) “filters” into the overall operation of capital markets.
There are many risks of intentional or unintentional greenwashing for market actors: making wrong investment choices, because they are ill-informed about the real nature of sustainability; seeing their reputation discredited in their clients and fund managers’ eyes; undermining trust and the fundamentals of green finance.
The European Union (EU) has taken the lead on these issues. The European Commission’s (EC) Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth of March 2018 aims to reorient capital flows towards a more sustainable economy, integrate sustainability into financial institutions’ risk management and promote transparency and long-term awareness within financial institutions. This Action Plan includes numerous instruments, such as an Ecolabel for financial products, the development of a European standard for green bonds, a so-called “Disclosure” regulation legislating on non-financial reporting by market actors, and the clarification of banking and investment advisors’ duties in terms of integrating ESG factors and incorporating sustainability into prudential requirements for banks and insurers. One of the main instruments is the European “taxonomy” for sustainable economic activities, which is intended to establish a common language for greening the financial sector by covering a wide range of actors and activities, at least on a voluntary basis. This future taxonomy has major global potential that could boost the EU’s normative power. Consequently, these challenges are now the focus of the G20 and its Financial Stability Board (FSB), and that of the United Nations.
The EU’s sustainable finance strategy is over the long term, striving to take as comprehensive a view as possible of financial regulation and climate change, and therefore fully redirect capital flows towards financing the transition. The next few months will be critical for the future of the sector, with work continuing on the European taxonomy, the preparation of delegated acts subsequent to the final recommendations prepared by the EU’s Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (TEG), and the implementation of the European Green Deal.
[1]. “Scientific Uncertainty”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 797, October 29, 2019, available at: www.nature.com; M. L. Weitzman, “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change”, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011, pp. 275-292, available at: https://doi.org.
The Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries: A Strategic Pillar for the European Battery Alliance
Although it is still marginal, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing. According to the French Institute of Petroleum and Renewable Energies (IFPEN, Institut Français du Pétrole et des Énergies Renouvelables), EVs accounted for a little more than 2% of the light vehicle market in 2019. This was up by 54% compared to 2018, but EVs still only represent 0.8% of the global car fleet. That said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates EVs could make up between 15% and 30% of vehicle sales in 2030.
China and the New Geopolitics of Technical Standardization
China is rapidly emerging as a formidable power in the development of technical standards, transforming the international standard-setting landscape and reintroducing an element of geopolitics into what are too often considered as benign, technical processes.
Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry
Navigating the mounting tensions between the United States and China is a geopolitical minefield. Is Europe up to the challenge?
What Does It Mean to Be a European Defense Company Today?
In many ways, defense firms in Europe should be pleased with the recent uptick in defense spending.
Europe's Place in the World: from 1914 to 2014
The first wave of globalization in the 20th century triggered deep upheaval of the organization of power and an overall depreciation of European nations.
The United States and the ‘Demilitarization’ of Europe: Myth or Reality?
The criticism leveled by Americans at Europe’s neglect of its commitment to defense is not new, and is often exaggerated.
Europe's Continuing Demilitarization
Beginning in the 1970s, becoming solidified with the “peace dividends” in the 1990s and finally accelerated by the financial crisis of 2008, Europe’s demilitarization is undeniable.
The "War to End All Wars": Total War, Total Peace?
The Paris Peace Conference of 1919-1920 marked the end of the First World War whose purpose was to establish the conditions for enduring, if not perpetual peace.
The European Union to Ukraine’s Rescue
Recent events have provided the opportunity for the rekindling of relations between Ukraine and the European Union.
The EU Electricity Policy Outlook for the Smart Grid Roll-Out
The energy transition from a socio-economic system based on fossil fuels to a sustainable low-carbon system is a multi-facetted process. This “transformation” of the energy system, more specifically of the power system, creates several challenges.
Peace as War’s Goal: A Slow Rediscovery
According to the traditional notion of the just war, an armed conflict should lead to conditions of durable peace.
The Primacy of Alliance: Deterrence and European Security
Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a principle guiding the Atlantic Alliance, even though the actual policy statements lack target, direction and urgency.
Towards Gas-on-Gas Competition in Europe from Trends to Reality?
Last week Centrica announced having signed a three-year gas supply contract with Gazprom Marketing and Trading UK entirely priced against UK spot gas market (NBP). This move follows other announcements in the sector, such as EON long-term gas supply contracts renegotiation, which allowed it to almost double its net-profit forecasts for 2012, or BP intention to sell Shaz Deniz II gas with spot-indexed contracts. All major European suppliers have been able to renegotiate long-term oil-indexed contracts with Gazprom lately and, more generally, contracts are increasingly being based on some spot-indexed price formula. How could that happen and what does it mean?
NATO Partnerships: Shaking Hands or Shaking the System?
The new Strategic Concept takes stock of the past ten years but outlines only modest objectives for the future of NATO. Partnership falls under the third core task, cooperative security. A subsequent partnership policy was unveiled, but has provided little new impetus.
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