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Thomas

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GOMART

It remains difficult to predict who will be the eventual winner of France’s upcoming presidential elections, with the first round to take place April 23 and a runoff between the top two candidates set for May 7.

France’s current presidential campaign has created an unprecedented situation fuelled by revelations and a total absence of restraint, but it has not truly taken account of the disruptions of the last year: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, the election of Donald Trump, the recapturing of Aleppo by Bashar al-Assad, Xi Jinping’s declarations about “economic globalization”, or the behavior of North Korea. The debate, or rather its absence, can be looked at in two ways.

What will become of US foreign policy under Donald Trump? A selection of Ifri researchers has come together to offer their thoughts on this question. Our experts cover an array of topics through 14 contributions, ranging from the future Sino-American relations, through US engagement in the Middle East, to the prospects of a renewed transatlantic relationship. This analysis intends to help readers anticipate the outcomes of this election in order to facilitate decision-making.

The year 2014 was defined by the conflict in Ukraine, the emergence of Daesh, and tensions between China and Japan. As for 2015, it has witnessed the spread of Daesh, the conflict in Yemen, the Greek crisis, revelations about the activity of the National Security Agency (NSA), the migrant crisis, and a ramping-up of terrorist attacks. 

Two simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have brought the international order into flux. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine have deeply undermined European security. Meanwhile, the self-declared Islamic State’s proclamation of a caliphate in western Iraq and eastern Syria has unsettled the Middle East. While it may be tempting for foreign policymakers to consider "Syraq" and "Rukraine" as unrelated crises, the tensions in Eastern Europe have strong implications for the situation in the Middle East, and vice versa. Indeed one of the greatest challenges to global governance is the combination of an assertive and declining Russia, and a disintegrating Middle East.

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To implement the “grand strategy”, Moscow’s strongest card is the energy weapon. However, the fall in oil prices and the conflict in Ukraine have brought things sharply into perspective. The traditional military dimension of the army is currently resigned to waging “limited wars” in localized areas.