Europe/United States: 50 Shades of Dependence
Is Joe Biden’s United States (US) returning to multilateral, traditional diplomacy? This more open stance does not eliminate either its domestic problems or the divergence in interests separating the US from the Europeans: how will open diplomacy fit in with the priority of defending US interests? Will Washington organize a broad anti-Chinese coalition that the Europeans are opposed to? Will sanctions with their resulting effects remain at the heart of US strategy? Will the Europeans be able to assert their sovereignty in the key area of new technologies against the US giants?
RAMSES 2022. Beyond Covid
For its 40th edition, RAMSES 2022. Beyond Covid, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
France hopes deporting more alleged radicals will bring security
France has repatriated more than half the people it defined as radical Islamists living in the country without a residence permit since 2018. Now it wants to extend the penalty and deport even more.
Why France is losing its 'Great Game' in western Africa
The British used to call it "the Great Game" — the military and political jockeying of great powers in the late 19th century in Afghanistan, India and the areas around southern Russia. France, too, has played its "Great Game" in western Africa for 150 years. Now it's losing. Islamist extremists are winning.
Army colonel sworn in as Mali president as tensions with Paris grow
Assimi Goïta vows to uphold republican regime and democracy in Mali.
France Halts Joint Military Operations with Mali Over Coup
PARIS - France said Thursday it would suspend joint military operations with Malian forces after the West African country's second coup in nine months, adding to international pressure for the military junta to return civilians to positions of power.
La Guerre de vingt ans. Djihadisme et contre-terrorisme au XXIe siècle
La Guerre de vingt ans was awarded the Prize for the best book on geopolitics in 2021.
Chad’s president Déby killed ‘on the frontline’
President Déby was killed while visiting troops on the frontline, according to an army spokesman.
Once a Jihadist, Always a Jihadist? A Deradicalization Program Seen from the Inside
France has traditionally taken a security-based approach to the fight against terror. It was a latecomer to the field of radicalization prevention and the establishment of disengagement programs aimed at jihadists. It only started to think seriously about the issue in 2013 and its first attempts involved certain irregularities.
L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration
If Iran is a key player in the Middle East, it is in no small part because of its extensive network of armed militia, which it uses as proxies.
Armed Violence in the Sahara. Are We Moving From Jihadism to Insurgency?
While everyone is questioning the effectiveness of the anti-terrorist response in the Sahel, the first challenge is to ensure that the jihadist phenomenon in the Sahel is fully understood.
The Right-wing Extremism in Germany. An Underestimated Threat?
In 2018, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified 24,100 people in Germany as right-wing extremists. More than one out of two right-wing extremists is described as “violence-oriented”. These figures demonstrate the high level of threat in the German constitutional democracy, which has already manifested itself in the form of various terrorist attacks against foreigners, religious communities and more recently politicians.
Sahel: The Basis of a Disaster
With sluggish economies that create few jobs, soaring demographics, international aid often considered as revenue, and a security apparatus unable to protect national territory and its population, are the Sahel states losing control of their own domestic areas?
The Shifting Foundations of Political Islam in Algeria
Understanding Algeria’s various Islamist communities—including militant groups, moderate factions, and grassroots movements—offers a window into the country’s uncertain sociopolitical future.
The ‘Conservative Turn’ in Indonesian Islam: Implications for the 2019 Presidential Elections
Despite Indonesia’s reputation for a traditionally moderate brand of Islam, religious conservativism is gaining considerable political traction in the lead up to this April’s presidential election.
Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat
Despite a relative weakening since 2017, the international jihadist movement should continue to pose a genuine threat over the next decade.
What Next for Afghanistan?
In a context defined by the failure of military interventions, multiple attacks, and criticized parliamentary elections, uncertainty reigns over the country.
Jihadist Prisoners: The Fear of Recidivism
On July 16, Djamel Beghal is expected to be released from the Rennes-Vezin prison in the west of France. Beghal is a well-known figure in the European jihadist sphere. Born in Algeria in 1965, he settled in France in 1987. Ten years later, he moved to the United Kingdom with his French wife and their children. In November 2000, the family left for Afghanistan, a country then governed by the Taliban.
The European Union's Struggle Against Terrorism
Since 2015, several countries in the European Union have been hit by attacks.
Russia’s Afghan Policy in the Regional and Russia-West Contexts
This report seeks to explain the main trends in Russia’s evolving Afghanistan policy, with the focus on its regionalization, diversification, and new emphasis on diplomacy that culminated in Moscow regional peace consultations. It argues that none of Russia’s Afghanistan-related concerns can be alleviated as long as the armed conflict there continues in full force. This makes Moscow genuinely interested in stabilization.
Hybrid Warfare in the Strategic Spectrum: an Historical Assessment
"Hybrid Warfare" is a fashionable concept, but in order fo it to be really relevant, it has to be visualized within the whole strategic spectrum.
Persistence and Evolutions of the Rentier State Model in Gulf Countries
A general economic model of understanding Middle Eastern states was elaborated by political scientists around the 1980’s, based on the concept of rent as a factor of wealth around which the economic model as much as the governance of energy-rich countries was re-organized. The particular case of GCC’s countries as rentier state has been at the cornerstone of this concept since they own the most important share of energy resources in the world.
Obama at West Point
President Obama presented the case for his foreign policy last week – again. He addressed the cadet corps at West Point in what was billed as a comprehensive strategic statement for the balance of his tenure in office, and for America's future. Obama's speech came just over a week after John Kerry issued his own call for America to take a large and active role in the world — urging Americans not to "allow a hangover from the excessive interventionism of the last decade to lead now to an excess of isolationism in this decade." It set the pitch and tone for the President's address. [1]
NSA Does the Grand Tour
On Tuesday Barack Obama called President Francois Hollande of France to explain the National Security Agency’s massive surveillance of French government offices, businesses and private citizens. Obama stated that this was a well-meaning attempt to protect both countries from Islamic terrorism. He offered to “reexamine” the program so as to determine whether the right balance was struck between public safety and privacy rights.
France and the Fight against Terrorism in the Sahel: The History of a Difficult Leadership Role
Except for its extreme poverty and the disastrous effects of a series of droughts, the Sahel region has been largely out of the spotlight of international attention in the past. Yet the rise of terrorism and especially the creation of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in 2007 brought the region into the focus of world politics. Initially, AQIM"s activities in the Sahel mainly posed a threat to the stability of the Sahelian states themselves. In an effort to internationalize its agenda, however, AQIM also started targeting Western countries.
The Sahel: A Crossroads between Criminality and Terrorism
Besides the ongoing political conundrum in Mali, it is the entire West African region, from Guinea Bissau to Mali, which is under threat of destabilization. Indeed, for many years now, terrorists and drugs traffickers have been synergizing their respective illegal activities, transforming the Sahel into a narcoterrorist zone. As a result, the Sahel has become a dangerous crossroads for drugs, crime, terrorism and insurgency.
Al-Qaeda in a Changing Region
On Tuesday 10 April 2012, Osama bin Laden was finally replaced on the FBI’s most wanted list by a fugitive schoolteacher accused of possessing child pornography. As the United States’ perception of threat has shifted, so too has the broader national security discourse. The prominent al-Qaeda analyst Peter Bergen observed that the terrorist group which launched the 9/11 attacks is now more or less out of business. He argued, too, that it is time to declare al-Qaeda defeated and “move on to focus on the essential challenges now facing America”: fixing the country’s economy, containing a rising China, managing the rogue regime in North Korea, and continuing to delay Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Algeria and the Crisis in Mali
The multifaceted crisis in Mali, which has effectively led to state collapse and split the country in two, has drawn international attention to Algeria’s role in the stability of the Sahel. One might expect Algeria, as the region’s preeminent military power, and one that has sought to position itself as a leader in counter-terrorism, to lead the international response to the growing chaos along its volatile southern border.
U.S.-Algerian Security Cooperation and Regional Counterterrorism
This paper explores the recent evolution of security cooperation between the United States and Algeria, which have forged a strong partnership on counterterrorism despite lingering mutual distrust.
Protecting Nuclear Installations: The difference between industrial safety and national security
There is a gritty public debate going on in Europe about what threats should be considered in conducting stress tests on existing nuclear power plants or in establishing safety criteria for new build nuclear power.
France wants to feel safe – whatever it takes. But what if it takes too much?
Opinion column published in "The Globe and Mail"
In France, are soldiers outside the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre really worth it?
Sentinel represents a watershed development in French military operations. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the number of French army soldiers actively deployed in metropolitan France roughly equals that of overseas operations. But the military establishment here is far from unified on the value of an operation often seen as a costly and superficial means of reassuring civilians and tourists at the expense of substantive improvement to national security.
China quiere aumentar su protagonismo en Oriente Próximo
Después de haber rehuido durante años implicarse en una región que considera un avispero, China quiere finalmente mostrarse como un participante más activo en Oriente Medio. La visita que el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, comienza este martes a Arabia Saudí, Irán y Egipto señala la creciente importancia que Pekín concede a la zona, tanto desde el punto de vista económico como de seguridad, y representa un paso más en su estrategia para presentarse como una alternativa al modelo estadounidense de potencia mundial.
Semi-Mutual Defense: Europe’s Patchwork Response to Paris Attacks
The offer of active military support to France in Syria or in the Sahel by several European member states is likely to overshadow the absence of meaningful commitment from others. On balance, the picture will not be too disheartening for supporters of the EU: its foreign and security policy apparatus will not come out damaged, but only because it has not been properly tested.
Jihad in Syria and in Iraq: a Сhallenge for France
One week after the terrorist attacks in Paris, the police killed two jihadists in Belgium. Officials said that the two men were coming back from Syria and were on the brink of targeting Brussels. The capital of Belgium was already targeted a few months ago: in May 2014, Mehdi Nemmouche – a French citizen who had trained in Syria – killed 4 persons in Brussels’ Jewish museum.
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