The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe
The instruments of cooperative security created during and since the Cold War to foster mutual confidence and reduce the risks of war, inadvertent escalation, and arms races, in and around Europe, have come under increasing strain.
The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?
The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
Tailored Assurance: Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tension
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) called for tailoring assurance across America’s allies, including NATO, as part of an overall deterrence and assurance strategy.
America Is More Than Trump. Europe Should Defend the Iran Deal without Burning Bridges to the US
US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will severely degrade regional and global security. His decision has increased the risk of war and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and beyond.
Saving Transatlantic Cooperation and the Iran Nuclear Deal. A View from Europe and the United States
Transatlantic differences over the future of the Iran nuclear deal – or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of July 2015 – are damaging a nuclear accord that all parties, except the United States, see as delivering on its purpose. They also increase the risk of Washington and European capitals working at cross-purposes vis-à-vis Iran and broader regional policies. To avoid such a scenario, the E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom)/European Union (EU) and the United States need to set up new channels of communication to avoid a transatlantic rift, to attempt – if at all possible – to preserve the Iran deal, and to secure its benefits for regional and global security.
North Korea-US: How Far Will the Confrontation Go?
Since Kim Jong-Un came to power, the North Korean regime has significantly strengthened its nuclear and ballistic capabilities.
La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain
Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond to, such a limited use of nuclear weapons.
France's Nuclear Arsenal: What Sort of Renewal?
Over the course of the next few years, France will have to renew its nuclear arsenal to ensure that it remains a credible dissuasion in the eyes of its potential enemies.
North Korea's Nuclear Posture: an Evolving Challenge for U.S. Deterrence
A more capable, nuclear-armed, North Korea will pose very substantial challenges to the U.S. deterrence posture.
The NPT and the Origins of NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Arrangements
Russia has recently accused the United States and NATO Allies of violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) by arguing that NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements are not permitted under the Treaty.
In Defense of Deterrence: the Relevance, Morality and Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons
Since 1945, nuclear deterrence has frequently been the target of continuous criticism on strategic, legal and moral grounds. In the past five years, however, the renewed debate on nuclear disarmament has been accompanied by an increase in such criticism.
Intelligence and Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons Learned
Intelligence agencies play a fundamental role in the prevention of nuclear proliferation, as they help to understand other countries' intentions and assess their technical capabilities and the nature of their nuclear activities.
Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization
Nuclear weapons have traditionally occupied an important place in Russia’s national security strategy. As Russia and the United States have been reducing their nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War, their relationship has undergone a complex transformation. Russia, however, still considers strategic balance with the United States to be an important element of national security.
Strategic Stability in the Cold War: Lessons for Continuing Challenges
During the Cold War, the phrase “strategic stability” gained currency both as a foreign policy objective and as an apt way of describing the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union never actually went to war.
Potential Strategic Consequences of the Nuclear Energy Revival
Renewed interest throughout the globe in harnessing nuclear energy has raised concern about security threats from states and non-state actors while holding out the promise of more electricity for more people.
Chinese Perceptions of the Utility of Nuclear Weapons: Prospects and Potential Problems in Disarmament
This paper takes a careful look at China's perceptions of the role of nuclear weapons in its national security policy and defense posture.
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development: Implications for Future Policy
Despite the resumption of high-level diplomatic contact between Washington and Pyongyang in late 2009, realization of a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula remains a very remote prospect, with the DPRK insisting that a peace agreement between the U.S. and North Korea and hence the cessation of "hostile DPRK-U.S. relations" are necessary before any consideration of denuclearization.
In Search of the Nuclear Taboo: Past, Present, and Future
One of the most puzzling - if positive - phenomena of the past half century is the non-use of nuclear weapons.
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