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Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

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Focus Stratégique
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Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank
Accroche

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.

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January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
© Thomas COLLANGE / armée de Terre / Défense
Corps analyses
This U-turn is not taking place in a historical vacuum, but must be understood in the light of a long history that still influences perceptions of French policy in the region. After having been a key security player in Central and Eastern Europe between the wars, France gradually turned away from this region, first in the context of the Cold War, and then from 1990 onwards, due to differing perceptions of the strategic environment.
 
Throughout the latter period, France’s concerns about antagonizing Russia, and its complex relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), inevitably led to growing mutual distrust with its eastern flank allies. Although the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the Donbas prompted the French government to gradually shift its position by participating in NATO’s enhanced air policing and forward land presence, it was not until 2022 that France fully assumed the responsibilities its eastern allies expected it to take on.
 
Since 2022, the Russian offensive in Ukraine has led France to fundamentally rethink its approach to collective security on the eastern flank. There have been three main changes. The first is a hardening in tone, reflected in both increased tensions with Russia, and destabilizing actions by Russia against France. The second is the implementation of an active policy of aid to Ukraine, reflected at the military level in legacy equipment transfers, on-demand production supplies, and training of Ukrainian armed forces. The third change concerns France’s approach to the defense of Europe in the broadest sense, through the launch of a new European Political Community, but also its political reinvestment in NATO and the emphasis on its fundamental role in collective defense.
 
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979-10-373-0879-5

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Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

Decoration
Author(s)
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Élie TENENBAUM

Élie TENENBAUM

Intitulé du poste

Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center

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Amélie ZIMA

Amélie ZIMA

Intitulé du poste
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 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Group of kamkazza combat drones against the background of sky and clouds, top view, 3d rendering. Concept: war in Ukraine, drone attack.
Observatory on Future Conflicts
Accroche centre

The Observatory of Future Conflicts is a research program carried out by the French Institute of International Relations and the Foundation for Strategic Research on behalf of the three army headquarters aimed at studying developments in tensions and armaments at the horizon 2040 in a transversal perspective, taking into account the issues of each army.

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T-72B3 battle tank, NATO
European & Transatlantic Security
Accroche centre

The European & Transatlantic Security Program aims to contribute to the strategic debate by developing analyses around three main axes: European defense and the security architecture of the European continent, institutional and strategic links between the Treaty Organization of North Atlantic (NATO) and the European Union (EU), as well as the evolution of the transatlantic relationship.

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Military Stockpiles: A Life-Insurance Policy in a High-Intensity Conflict?

Date de publication
06 December 2022
Accroche

The war in Ukraine is a reminder of the place of attrition from high-intensity conflict in European armies that have been cut to the bone after three decades of budget cuts. All European forces have had to reduce their stocks to the bare minimum. As a result, support to Ukraine has meant a significant drain on their operational capabilities. A significant amount of decommissioned systems were also donated, due to the lack of depth in operational fleets.

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France’s Place Within NATO: Toward a Strategic Aggiornamento?

Date de publication
27 June 2023
Accroche

With a rapidly deteriorating security environment, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, internal disputes exploding into public view, and questions being raised about the scope of its security responsibilities, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seemed to be in dire straits at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Towards a European Nuclear Deterrent

Date de publication
20 September 2024
Accroche

While major European powers may have to contemplate nuclear deterrence without America, the national flexibility and European financial support required to make it feasible is currently difficult to imagine.

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“At the Other Side of the Hill”: The Benefits and False Promises of Battlefield Transparency

Date de publication
27 May 2024
Accroche

Recent conflicts have highlighted a key characteristic of contemporary warfare, unprecedented in its scale and impact on the conduct of operations: “battlefield transparency”. 

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January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
© Thomas COLLANGE / armée de Terre / Défense

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Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank