Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order
The world has rarely seemed more disorderly than it is today. But in this anarchic environment, some things are constant.
Putin’s foreign policy is centered on the idea that Russia was, is and always will be a great power, playing a leading role in world affairs. This conviction rests on several pillars: the exercise of sovereign power, civilizational messianism, identification with the Global South, and an enduring sense of grievance and insecurity.
Putin’s great power ambitions face considerable constraints. The war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s much-vaunted military might and killed off lingering hopes of being a geopolitical balancer between the United States (US) and China. Economic ties with Europe have suffered enormous damage. Strategic dependence on China has grown significantly. And Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space has been eroded.
Nevertheless, it would be premature to write off Russia’s prospects. It is a diminished power, but the shortcomings of others may open up opportunities to restore its position and influence. Putin is counting on growing “Ukraine fatigue” in the West, and a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could be a game-changer. Any dilution in Western support for Ukraine would boost Russia’s strategic prospects and encourage Putin’s aggressive inclinations.
Bobo Lo is an Associate Research Fellow with the Russia/Eurasia Center at Ifri. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, Sydney, Australia; and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington D.C. Previously, he was Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow.
Dr. Lo has written several books, including A Wary Embrace: What the China-Russia Relationship Means for the World (Penguin Australia, 2017); Russia and the New World Disorder (Brookings and Chatham House, 2015); and Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics (Brookings and Chatham House, 2008).
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Russia/Eurasia Center
Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Moldova’s Foreign Policy after 2024 Presidential Elections: Staying on the EU Path, Moving Eastwards or Becoming Multi-vector?
The future of Moldova’s foreign agenda will undergo a stress test during the upcoming presidential elections on October 20, 2024.
Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects
Written by Dimitri Minic, the scientific article "Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects" in Russia’s war against Ukraine: Complexity of Contemporary Clausewitzian War by the National Defence University Department of Warfare, Helsinki 2024.
Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation
At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development.
The South Caucasus: A New Strategic Space?
The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.