After the Elections: Germany in Search of Shaken Stability?
With a voter turnout of 82.5%, Germany recorded its highest participation since 1987—an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to 2021. As in the previous election, the high turnout particularly benefited the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was able to mobilize many former non-voters. Many voters sought to punish the outgoing government with their ballots, as its approval rating had dropped to just 14% before the coalition broke apart in November 2024. Germany is now very likely heading toward a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with exploratory talks having begun on February 28.
- The CDU has won the 2025 Bundestag election but failed to surpass the 30% mark. As a result, a grand coalition with the SPD under future Chancellor Friedrich Merz appears to be the only realistic option.
- The AfD is the big winner of the election, achieving results of over 30% in the East while gradually strengthening its foothold in the West.
- The failure of the traffic light coalition is evident: the SPD, Greens, and FDP suffer significant losses, and the Liberals fail to reach the 5% threshold required to remain in the Bundestag. For the FDP, this means a return to extra-parliamentary opposition.
- Die Linke, which had been predicted to disappear, manages to hold on but changes its voter base. It withstands competition from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which falls short of the 5% threshold and will not be represented in the Bundestag.
Jeanette Süß is Research Fellow at the Study Committee on Franco-German (Cerfa) at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), working in particular on the European Union and the Franco-German relations.
This publication is available in French (pdf): "Après les élections : l’Allemagne en quête d’une stabilité ébranlée ?".
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Ifri's Briefing, March 2025
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After the Elections: Germany in Search of Shaken Stability?
Author(s)
Jeanette SÜß
Research Fellow, Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa), Ifri
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
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