2024: A Pivotal Year for the Space Sector?
2024 could be a pivotal year for space exploration. New launchers are set to make their first flight, satellite constellations and other trends promise to redefine the way space is explored and exploited.
The year 2024 promises to be an important one for space exploration, with ambitious programmes and numerous technological developments.
The Moon will remain the focal point for the major powers, the first flight of astronauts around our satellite being scheduled for next year.
Meanwhile, Europe, which has been in severe difficulties as a result of a crisis in the launcher industry, could regain its autonomy in terms of access to space with the first launch of Ariane 6. Other space launchers are scheduled to make their first flights next year, most of them American, reusibility becoming a key feature.
Satellite connectivity constellations could multiply by 2024, boosting the number of objects in space. This population has almost doubled in five years, fuelling fears of chain collisions if international regulations are not adopted soon.
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2024: A Pivotal Year for the Space Sector?
Author(s)
Paul WOHRER
Research Fellow, Space Program, Center for Geopolitics of Technology, Ifri
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Center for Geopolitics of Technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, cybersecurity, robotics, semiconductors, space... Technology, especially in the digital domain, is now deeply affecting all human activities and, by extension, international relations. The resulting political, strategic, economic and social issues manifest themselves at multiple political scales involving states, international organizations and private companies. The dynamics of international competition and cooperation are transformed.
It is to respond to these challenges that Ifri is launching the Geopolitics of Technology program in the fall of 2020, which builds on the work it already carried out on these subjects for several years.
The program takes a resolutely European approach to international issues related to so-called critical technologies. Its work is organized around four cross-cutting themes:
- Power: redistributions of power caused by new technologies, in particular digital; military and dual innovations; transformations of international competition;
- Sovereignty: definition of critical infrastructures and technologies; industrial and innovation policies in strategic sectors; opportunities and risks associated with international value chains;
- Governance: ethical and legal issues; interactions between companies, states, international organizations and users; public-private partnerships and GovTech;
- Society: political and social impacts of technological innovations; risks and opportunities for the future of work, health, the fight against climate change; connectivity and economic development.
Space Program
Space has become a crucial theme in the main international think tanks’ research activities as it entails important strategic, economic, and technological issues.
Since 2001, Ifri has integrated space in its research, notably by ensuring that the political dimension of scientific and human exploration programs is emphasized, and by supporting reflections on the Code of Conduct for Outter Space Activities.
Today, as part of its research agenda, Ifri mobilizes several of its centers and programs to transversally tackle the theme of space, through three main inputs:
- the competition of powers, driven by the Sino-American rivalry;
- critical points related to mastery of space, such as the issue of autonomous access to space or the mega-constellations necessary for the digital revolution;
- these developments’ challenges for Europe and its status as a space power.
Since the Summer 2020, Ifri has been coordinating a tripartite European Space Governance Initiative, together with two other renowned European think tanks: the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP) in Germany and the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Italy.
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