China’s Mature Node Overcapacity: Unfounded Fears
China is decoupling from, not flooding, the global mature-node semiconductor market. As China increasingly pursues industrial policies encouraging domestic chip production, its own growing chip demand will prevent a direct flood of cheap Chinese chips on foreign shores. However, as Beijing achieves its goal of decreasing the reliance of domestic downstream manufacturers on foreign chips, European and American mature-node semiconductor companies will feel the ripple effects of an increasingly “involuted” Chinese chip ecosystem.
Key Takeaways:
- Chinese mature-node chip production is increasingly decoupled, with 80% of sales now focusing on the domestic PRC market. Meanwhile, connected devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) are the fastest-growing demand drivers in the PRC for domestically produced chips.
- Chinese chipmakers spend less on average than their global counterparts on manufacturing capacity but above the global average on research. This suggests that under a tight economy, the PRC government and chipmakers have prioritized technological catch-up over manufacturing capacity expansion.
- The growth in domestic Chinese mature-node chip demand is likely to keep a moderate pace with the growth in Chinese chip production capacity. These dual trends make unlikely a direct flood of cheap Chinese mature-node chips into Western markets, but as China increasingly fulfills its own demand, global prices may fall from gluts of Western chips crowded out of the PRC.
- Chinese chip demand will increasingly be met by domestic supply, crowding out foreign mature-node chipmakers that rely on the PRC market for revenue. Trade actions on downstream products incorporating Chinese mature-node chips may buffet market distortions, but such remedial policy measures require further study.
Available in:
Themes and regions
ISBN / ISSN
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
China’s Mature Node Overcapacity: Unfounded Fears
Author(s)
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Center for Geopolitics of Technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, cybersecurity, robotics, semiconductors, space... Technology, especially in the digital domain, is now deeply affecting all human activities and, by extension, international relations. The resulting political, strategic, economic and social issues manifest themselves at multiple political scales involving states, international organizations and private companies. The dynamics of international competition and cooperation are transformed.
It is to respond to these challenges that Ifri is launching the Geopolitics of Technology program in the fall of 2020, which builds on the work it already carried out on these subjects for several years.
The program takes a resolutely European approach to international issues related to so-called critical technologies. Its work is organized around four cross-cutting themes:
- Power: redistributions of power caused by new technologies, in particular digital; military and dual innovations; transformations of international competition;
- Sovereignty: definition of critical infrastructures and technologies; industrial and innovation policies in strategic sectors; opportunities and risks associated with international value chains;
- Governance: ethical and legal issues; interactions between companies, states, international organizations and users; public-private partnerships and GovTech;
- Society: political and social impacts of technological innovations; risks and opportunities for the future of work, health, the fight against climate change; connectivity and economic development.
Center for Asian Studies
Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.
The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands.
The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.
The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Sat-to-Cell: Towards Universal Connectivity?
Sat-to-Cell is a new type of service that connects smartphones directly to satellites. It has recently enabled innovative applications such as emergency text messaging via satellite. The technology is developing rapidly, and many questions are now being raised about its potential impact.
From Ukraine to Gaza: Military Uses of Artificial Intelligence
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza show us the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to battlefield operations.
Artificial Intelligence, or The Race for Power
Artificial intelligence (AI) is here to stay, and its use is spreading at a rate that is difficult to comprehend.
Funding A Rival: When the United States and Europe Invest in Chinese Tech
Outbound investments into rival powers are receiving increasing political attention on both sides of the Atlantic, as competition between the United States and China intensifies. The concern lies with American and European investments in certain Chinese technologies - such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, or quantum computing - which could enable China to enhance its military capabilities and thus may pose risks to national and international security.