"In my view, Japan’s next Prime Minister is likely to continue deepening ties with Europe. Under continued LDP leadership, significant shifts in foreign policy are unlikely. While there may be some nuances within the party, the consensus on foreign policy—building on former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s legacy—is strong. The personal style of the next Prime Minister may differ, but predictions are difficult—Kishida, for instance, unexpectedly aligned more closely with Abe’s hawkish stance than initially anticipated. Second, Japan’s diplomatic priorities will remain focused on hedging against two key risks: the rise of China and the potential threat to its security, and the possible disengagement and relative decline of the United States. In this context, the European Union will continue to be seen as a key partner. As a trade and normative superpower, the EU plays an important role in multilateral settings to encourage China to follow international rules. Japan also collaborates with the EU to nudge the US toward continued investment in multilateralism, which could be especially valuable in the event of a second Trump administration. Finally, Europe is crucial for Japan in diversifying its security partnerships, sharing the burden of maintaining stability and upholding the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific."

Céline Pajon, Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)