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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying
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The Energy Roadmap 2050 released by the Commission in December 2011 says it all: we will need more gas until 2030. Gas represents the default solution for a transition to an energy system with less GHG emissions. It also has great value as a back-up for intermittent renewable power generation. Therefore, stating that Europe still needs large quantities of gas means checking if supply volumes are available to satisfy growing demand.

Corps analyses

Internationally there was an extraordinary abundance of gas in 2011, due to the expansion of US shale gas output. At the European level, the economic crisis and the particularly mild winter (until February 2012) further amplified this situation. European gas prices were far cheaper on spot markets and large volumes were still available in most countries.

Despite this context, European gas demand is set to increase and gas will represent one of the main energies in the fuel mix, in the years to come. In fact, situations differ from country to country, while European legislation aiming at lowering the carbon content of our economies and of our energy mixes will push member states (like Poland) to replace progressively more polluting fuels (coal and oil) with gas. Other political choices may influence gas demand, such as Germany’s exit from nuclear power. In fact, one of the fastest and cheapest solutions to replace base load nuclear generation is the construction of Combined Cycle Gas power plants.

As carbon capture storage is still waiting for favorable price signals, and as domestic gas production is diminishing rapidly in all Member States and EEA countries, attention is clearly focusing on the security of supply and on import infrastructures...

 

 

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

Decoration
Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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India’s Broken Power Economics : Addressing DISCOM Challenges

Date de publication
15 October 2024
Accroche

India’s electricity demand is rising at an impressive annual rate of 9%. From 2014 to 2023, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged from 1.95 trillion dollars ($) to $3.2 trillion (constant 2015 US$), and the nation is poised to maintain this upward trajectory, with projected growth rates exceeding 7% in 2024 and 2025.  Correspondingly, peak power demand has soared from 136 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to 243 GW in 2024, positioning India as the world’s third-largest energy consumer. In the past decade, the country has increased its power generation capacity by a remarkable 190 GW, pushing its total installed capacity beyond 400 GW. 

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The Troubled Reorganization of Critical Raw Materials Value Chains: An Assessment of European De-risking Policies

Date de publication
30 September 2024
Accroche

With the demand for critical raw materials set to, at a minimum, double by 2030 in the context of the current energy transition policies, the concentration of critical raw materials (CRM) supplies and, even more, of refining capacities in a handful of countries has become one of the paramount issues in international, bilateral and national discussions. China’s dominant position and successive export controls on critical raw materials (lately, germanium, gallium, rare earths processing technology, graphite, antimony) point to a trend of weaponizing critical dependencies.

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The Aluminum Value Chain: A Key Component of Europe’s Strategic Autonomy and Carbon Neutrality

Date de publication
29 July 2024
Accroche

The United States of America (US), Canada and the European Union (EU) all now consider aluminum as strategic. This metal is indeed increasingly used, especially for the energy transition, be it for electric vehicles (EVs), electricity grids, wind turbines or solar panels.

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The EU Green Deal External Impacts: Views from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States

Date de publication
29 May 2024
Accroche

Ahead of June 2024 European elections and against the backdrop of growing geopolitical and geoeconomic frictions, if not tensions, between the EU and some of its largest trade partners, not least based on the external impacts of the European Green Deal (EGD), Ifri chose to collect views and analyses from leading experts from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States of America (US) on how they assess bilateral relations in the field of energy and climate, and what issues and opportunities they envisage going forward. 

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying