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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying
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The Energy Roadmap 2050 released by the Commission in December 2011 says it all: we will need more gas until 2030. Gas represents the default solution for a transition to an energy system with less GHG emissions. It also has great value as a back-up for intermittent renewable power generation. Therefore, stating that Europe still needs large quantities of gas means checking if supply volumes are available to satisfy growing demand.

Corps analyses

Internationally there was an extraordinary abundance of gas in 2011, due to the expansion of US shale gas output. At the European level, the economic crisis and the particularly mild winter (until February 2012) further amplified this situation. European gas prices were far cheaper on spot markets and large volumes were still available in most countries.

Despite this context, European gas demand is set to increase and gas will represent one of the main energies in the fuel mix, in the years to come. In fact, situations differ from country to country, while European legislation aiming at lowering the carbon content of our economies and of our energy mixes will push member states (like Poland) to replace progressively more polluting fuels (coal and oil) with gas. Other political choices may influence gas demand, such as Germany’s exit from nuclear power. In fact, one of the fastest and cheapest solutions to replace base load nuclear generation is the construction of Combined Cycle Gas power plants.

As carbon capture storage is still waiting for favorable price signals, and as domestic gas production is diminishing rapidly in all Member States and EEA countries, attention is clearly focusing on the security of supply and on import infrastructures...

 

 

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

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Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Date de publication
02 December 2024
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EV batteries recycling is a building block for boosting the European Union (EU)’s strategic autonomy in the field of critical raw minerals (CRM) value chains. Yet, recent evolutions in the European EV value chain, marked by cancellations or postponements of projects, are raising the alarm on the prospects of the battery recycling industry in Europe.

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Couverture Politique étrangère 4-2024

The New Geopolitics of Energy

Date de publication
03 December 2024
Accroche

Following the dramatic floods in Valencia, and as COP29 opens in Baku, climate change is forcing us to closely reexamine the pace—and the stumbling blocks—of the energy transition.

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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?

Date de publication
30 October 2024
Accroche

Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) have a strong potential, notably to help bridge the climate finance gap, especially for Africa.

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Taiwan's Energy Supply: The Achilles Heel of National Security

Date de publication
22 October 2024
Accroche

Making Taiwan a “dead island” through “a blockade” and “disruption of energy supplies” leading to an “economic collapse.” This is how Colonel Zhang Chi of the People’s Liberation Army and professor at the National Defense University in Beijing described the objective of the Chinese military exercises in May 2024, following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. Similar to the exercises that took place after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022, China designated exercise zones facing Taiwan’s main ports, effectively simulating a military embargo on Taiwan. These maneuvers illustrate Beijing’s growing pressure on the island, which it aims to conquer, and push Taiwan to question its resilience capacity.

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Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying

Gas Routes to Europe: Real Needs and Political Jockeying