Search on Ifri.org

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

Development of the Northern Sea Route: How great is the need for satellite observation?

Editorials
|
Date de publication
|
Accroche

The sea route between Europe and Asia is significantly shorter via Arctic waters than via the Suez Canal. Changes in global climate have resulted in a diminishing of ice in Arctic waters. This has resulted in the Northern Sea Route establishing itself as a viable commercial alternative, which is expected to expand in the years ahead. Satellite observation is one of the methods employed to gather information about ice conditions, weather and oil spills, and is a prerequisite for ensuring the continued development of the new traffic.

Corps analyses

The European colonial powers started investigating whether there were shorter transport routes via northern waters as early as in the 17th century. However, it was not until 1879 that the Swedish-Finnish explorer Adolf Erik Nordenskjold, as the first Western explorer, sailed to the Bering Strait. The transport route was expanded during the Soviet era, and in 1978 the first year-round transportation of iron and other metals commenced between Yenisey in the east and Murmansk in the west, supported by icebreakers in winter. Foreign vessels were first granted permission to traffic between east and west in Russian northern waters in July 1991, just a few months after the collapse of the Soviet Union.In 1997 the Finnish oil tanker the Uikku was the first non-Russian flagged vessel that sailed the entire Northern Sea Route. In 2012, 46 registered vessels used the passage. This figure rose the following year to 71. A total of 1.35 million metric tons comprising bulk, liquid, LNG and general cargo was transported in 2013. In 2030, transportation could account for one-quarter of all goods transport between Europe and Asia. This development would be dependent on the ice diminishing rapidly, but the researchers disagree on the speed at which the ice will melt. According to some estimates the entire Arctic could be ice-free by 2040.

Nonetheless, shipping companies that aim to use the new sea route face major challenges. The passage is still only fully navigable from the beginning of July to November in areas where only one-year old ice is formed. One-year old ice is around 1.6 metres thick. There is no fixed window for the period during which traffic is permitted. Everything is dependent on ice conditions. One of the challenges lies in receiving updated satellite information about ice conditions.

Download the PDF document to read the full paper:

 

Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

Thématiques analyses

ISBN / ISSN

978-2-36567-261-0

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

Development of the Northern Sea Route: How great is the need for satellite observation?

Decoration
Author(s)
Image principale
Authentic Modern High Tech Robot Weapon
Center for Geopolitics of Technology
Accroche centre

Artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, cybersecurity, robotics, semiconductors, space... Technology, especially in the digital domain, is now deeply affecting all human activities and, by extension, international relations. The resulting political, strategic, economic and social issues manifest themselves at multiple political scales involving states, international organizations and private companies. The dynamics of international competition and cooperation are transformed.

It is to respond to these challenges that Ifri is launching the Geopolitics of Technology program in the fall of 2020, which builds on the work it already carried out on these subjects for several years.

The program takes a resolutely European approach to international issues related to so-called critical technologies. Its work is organized around four cross-cutting themes:

  • Power: redistributions of power caused by new technologies, in particular digital; military and dual innovations; transformations of international competition;
  • Sovereignty: definition of critical infrastructures and technologies; industrial and innovation policies in strategic sectors; opportunities and risks associated with international value chains;
  • Governance: ethical and legal issues; interactions between companies, states, international organizations and users; public-private partnerships and GovTech;
  • Society: political and social impacts of technological innovations; risks and opportunities for the future of work, health, the fight against climate change; connectivity and economic development.
Image principale

The “Huawei Saga” in Europe Revisited: German Lessons for the Rollout of 6G

Date de publication
02 June 2025
Accroche

While the European Union attempted to coordinate a collective response through its 5G Toolbox in Europe’s 5G infrastructure, member states diverged significantly in balancing political, economic, and technological considerations. Germany, despite its economic ties to China and status as Europe’s largest telecom market, only reached a tentative agreement in July 2024—one that appears largely symbolic. 

Tim RÜHLIG
Image principale

European Startups and Generative AI: Overcoming Big Tech Dominance

Date de publication
07 April 2025
Accroche

Europe is at a crossroads. Faced with the domination of American Big Tech across the entire generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) value chain, from foundation models to cloud infrastructure, distribution channels, and open source, it risks long-term technological and economic decline. Yet generative AI also represents a major opportunity for economic transformation, with a potential value estimated at 1.5 times France’s gross domestic product (GDP). To turn it into a driver of renewal, Europe must move beyond the illusion of total technological independence and instead build an ecosystem that leverages Big Tech resources while strengthening its own innovation capabilities.

Image principale

A "DeepSeek Moment"?

Date de publication
26 March 2025
Accroche

DeepSeek, hailed as a champion of Chinese AI, represents less a revolution than a significant optimization of existing technologies. Doubts remain regarding the figures put forward by the start-up, inviting a more measured response to the media hype surrounding China’s technological catch-up. Nonetheless, DeepSeek signals the need to question an economic model based solely on the race for computational power. By betting on open innovation, Europe can carve out its own path in a competition that is far from being a zero-sum game.

 

Image principale

Artificial Promises or Real Regulation? Inventing Global AI Governance

Date de publication
03 February 2025
Accroche

The risks inherent to the unregulated use of AI, a key technology and vector of profound transformations within societies underline the pressing need to harmonize governance efforts at the international level. The Summit for Action on Artificial Intelligence to be held in Paris in mid-February could be an unprecedented timely occasion to agree on a global governance framework of AI for the public good.

Related Subjects

How can this study be cited?

Development of the Northern Sea Route: How great is the need for satellite observation?, from Ifri by
Copy

Development of the Northern Sea Route: How great is the need for satellite observation?