The World Energy Outlook 2013 published by the IEA confirms that despite the rise of unconventional fuels in particular in the US, Middle East will by the mid-2020s retake its place as the world major oil and gas supplier, providing most of the increase in global supplies. Well, there are some big ifs.

Since 2010 we have observed a new quality in EU energy policy. It is related to the European Commission’s more or less direct engagement in the bilateral gas relations of a part of the new member states - Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania - with Russia.

As an early task in its efforts to build a common external energy policy, the Commission has announced it will turn its attention to bringing the vast gas resources of Turkmenistan to European consumers. This will be an excellent place for the Commission to test its ability to speak with one voice for its polyglot constituency. First, their task may be facilitated by the fact that on this topic, no European voices are yet particularly audible.

The Energy Roadmap 2050 released by the Commission in December 2011 says it all: we will need more gas until 2030. Gas represents the default solution for a transition to an energy system with less GHG emissions. It also has great value as a back-up for intermittent renewable power generation. Therefore, stating that Europe still needs large quantities of gas means checking if supply volumes are available to satisfy growing demand.

In a competitive energy system, generation investment choices are let to investors. It is then the responsibility of the market actors to invest and ensure peak, medium and base load generation, based on market perspectives and trends. If through actors" investments the stability of the system cannot be ensured (because, for example, peak generation is not sufficient to satisfy demand), some measures have to be taken. These can have economic and system integrity impacts on neighboring systems, especially if they are connected. This is precisely what is happening in the European electricity market.

The European Refining sector is in crisis. The wave of refineries closures has spared no EU Member States.

-by building dissonance within. Some like to remember fondly the call by Ronald Reagan for Gorbachev “to tear down this wall”. The United States “Won the Cold War” said George Bush Senior in his State of the Union Address. We need to step back and recognize with some humility that the Soviet Union fell largely of its own weight rather than as a result of external pressure. Again today Russia is economically weak. It has become an exporter of raw materials, its industrial sector is weak, and its revenues are already falling. Conditions now offer the opportunity to aggravate Russia’s economic frailty – let’s focus on that.