Search on Ifri.org

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine

Studies
|
Date de publication
|
Référence taxonomie collections
Proliferation Papers
Image de couverture de la publication
Prolif Paper No.65 Cover
Accroche
Since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, and even before February 2022, the Russian government has conducted intense nuclear rhetoric and actions.
Image principale
Russian Strategic Forces Exercise "Grom-2022'
Russian Strategic Forces Exercise "Grom-2022'
Russian MoD
Corps analyses
This behavior is a specific approach to strategic deterrence that seeks to incorporate nonmilitary and military (nuclear and nonnuclear) means into a continuous spectrum of actions for deterrence, escalation management, and warfighting. Nuclear weapons are the foundation of credible strategic deterrence and signaling with these and other strategic capabilities could in theory be instrumental for deterring the escalation of a local conflict to a regional war.
 
Russian signaling varies from aggressive declarations from Putin himself but also Russian officials such as Medvedev or journalistic cronies, to medium to large scale strategic exercises like the infamous Grom. Likewise, on the international stage, Russia has shown restraint by reimplementing the Reagan-Gorbachev declaration, but also deliberate disrespect of arms control agreements, notably by suspending its participation to the New START treaty.
 
In practice, however, Russia’s use of strategic deterrence signaling in this conflict has been met with mixed results insofar as it has not compelled the cessation of or constraints on Western lethal aid to Ukraine, even though it may have, at least in the eyes of Russian officials, deterred direct Western intervention.
 
Consequently, there might be more to expect from Russia, depending on the evolution of the daily battlefield in Ukraine. If the use of a nuclear weapon is still very unlikely, some other strategic moves in the hybrid domain (cyberattacks, attacks on undersea cables, information manipulation) could also serve as signaling.
 
Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

Thématiques analyses

ISBN / ISSN

979-10-373-0744-6

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine

Image principale
 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

Image principale
Nuclear ballistic missile submarine, in transit on the surface
Deterrence and Proliferation
Accroche centre

The conflicts in Europe, Asia and the Middle East demonstrate a return of nuclear power to the balance of power. Arsenals are being modernized and expanded, while arms control is collapsing. This research program aims to analyze these phenomena.

Image principale

From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence

Date de publication
03 December 2024
Accroche

Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.

Image principale

Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

Date de publication
13 June 2024
Accroche

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.

Image principale

Military Stockpiles: A Life-Insurance Policy in a High-Intensity Conflict?

Date de publication
06 December 2022
Accroche

The war in Ukraine is a reminder of the place of attrition from high-intensity conflict in European armies that have been cut to the bone after three decades of budget cuts. All European forces have had to reduce their stocks to the bare minimum. As a result, support to Ukraine has meant a significant drain on their operational capabilities. A significant amount of decommissioned systems were also donated, due to the lack of depth in operational fleets.

Image principale

France’s Place Within NATO: Toward a Strategic Aggiornamento?

Date de publication
27 June 2023
Accroche

With a rapidly deteriorating security environment, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, internal disputes exploding into public view, and questions being raised about the scope of its security responsibilities, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seemed to be in dire straits at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Page image credits
Russian Strategic Forces Exercise "Grom-2022'
Russian MoD

How can this study be cited?

Image de couverture de la publication
Prolif Paper No.65 Cover
The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine, from Ifri by
Copy
Image de couverture de la publication
Prolif Paper No.65 Cover

The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine