The European Union (EU) is holding firm in the face of the war in Ukraine—perhaps better than expected. But what long-term effects will the war have on European institutions and policies? The institutions will need to be changed to cope with the forthcoming expansions. The EU has certainly made progress toward common industrial and technological policies. But will this dynamic do away with a conception of strategic autonomy, encompassing both diplomacy and strategy? The European Union, which will undoubtedly be a key mover of future changes for the continent, remains largely uncertain in terms of its future configurations.

For its 42nd edition, RAMSES 2024 identifies three major challenges for 2024. 

The state of public finances in France and Germany is often compared. Germany is considered a model of rigor, through its ability to contain its deficits and generate surpluses, particularly between 2012 and 2019, thanks to the introduction into its constitution of a debt brake mechanism. 

In a continuation of U.S. efforts to slow China's development and acquisition of strategic technologies, Washington has imposed new restrictions on American investment in Chinese technology sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, and semiconductors.

Scenario planning in the Taiwan Strait that solely assumes a situation without natural disasters or emergencies, where the military and government function as usual, falls short in preparing for more complex contingencies. 

France was the first European country to announce an Indo-Pacific strategy, launching it in 2018.

While there is now new momentum in the relationship between Europe and China, considerable variation remains in approaches across the continent, from clear-cut strategies to more ambiguous policies, complicating a common European position.