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What Forecast for Crimea?

Date de publication
12 June 2017
Accroche

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the peninsula’s demographics have changed. Thousands have left and new arrivals – Ukrainians fleeing conflict in the east of their country and Russians – have moved in.

Catherine IFFLY

Brexit: a Certain Idea of Europe

Date de publication
12 June 2017
Accroche

The reasons for the result of the UK’s June 2016 referendum reveal nothing we didn’t already know. They have to do with the development of British society and political debates particular to the UK.

Jonathan STORY

La politique française de soutien aux exportations d'armement : raisons et limites d'un succès

Date de publication
08 June 2017
Accroche

During François Hollande’s five-year term French defense exports have reached quite spectacular results. Arms sales abroad have increased at least fourfold since 2012, when the former presidential team came to power.

Lucie BÉRAUD-SUDREAU

What Role for Japan in Africa's Security After Withdrawal from South Sudan?

Date de publication
01 June 2017
Accroche

There is still a big gap between the discourse and the reality of what Japan wants - and what it can achieve in Africa.

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Reforming Ukrainian Defense: No Shortage of Challenges

Date de publication
22 May 2017
Accroche

Ukraine’s conflict with Russia has highlighted the catastrophic state of Ukraine’s defense apparatus.

Isabelle FACON

Japan's Security Policy in Africa: The Dawn of a Strategic Approach?

Date de publication
17 May 2017
Accroche

This paper documents new features of Japan's diplomacy that tends to gradually integrate Africa into Japan's strategic interests.

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Meeting Macron in the Middle. How France and Germany Can Revive the EU

Date de publication
09 May 2017
Accroche

Macron's presidency offers a rare chance to revive the French-German relationship just when Europe needs it most.

Thomas GOMART Thorsten BENNER

What Perspectives on the US Oil Policy ?

Date de publication
09 May 2017
Accroche

This Edito highlights how oil, since its discovery in 1859, has played a major role in the US international policy and economy throughout decades, becoming a key tool of the american leadership. 

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The Resurgence of Conflict in Mozambique. Ghosts from the Past and Brakes to Peaceful Democracy

Date de publication
04 May 2017
Accroche

2016 proved to be a most challenging year for Mozambique. Small-scale conflict, which started reappearing between the government and the opposition party, the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), in 2013, intensified over the course of the year, whilst peace negotiations stalled. 

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Political Targets: Womenomics as an Economic and Foreign Relations Strategy

Date de publication
26 April 2017
Accroche

This paper provides an overview of the womenomics strategy launched by Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and shows how a plan designed to mitigate Japan’s demographic crises and labor shortages also evolved into a foreign relations strategy to help manage Japan’s reputation abroad on gender equality.

Linda HASUNUMA
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Europe Is at the Core of France’s Foreign Policy

Date de publication
24 April 2017
Accroche

It remains difficult to predict who will be the eventual winner of France’s upcoming presidential elections, with the first round to take place April 23 and a runoff between the top two candidates set for May 7.

 

Europe's Energy Transition - Insights for Policy Making

Date de publication
19 April 2017
Accroche

This book was authored by the Insight_e European consortium, in which the Ifri Center for Energy was involved between 2014 and 2017. It is based on the key research projects carried out over the last three years on the Energy Union, greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies, security of gas and electricity supplies and the societal dimensions of the energy transition.

Manuel WELSCH Steve PYE Dogan KELES Aurélie FAURE Audrey DOBBINS Abhishek SHIVAKUMAR Paul DEANE Mark HOWELLS
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Are African Middle Classes Coming Together? The Case of Telecommunications Employees in Kinshasa

Date de publication
05 April 2017
Accroche

For many observers, a change in perception of the African continent occurred in the 2010s. Attention has focused on the relatively high rates of economic growth and a high population growth associated with urban expansion; both indicators interpreted as promises of economic “emergence” leading to potential new markets.

La survivabilité sur le champ de bataille : entre technologie et manœuvre

Date de publication
05 April 2017
Accroche

The concept of survivability is central to the design of combat vehicles and to the elaboration of doctrines for the employment of military forces. 

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Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next French President

Date de publication
31 March 2017
Accroche

France’s current presidential campaign has created an unprecedented situation fuelled by revelations and a total absence of restraint, but it has not truly taken account of the disruptions of the last year: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, the election of Donald Trump, the recapturing of Aleppo by Bashar al-Assad, Xi Jinping’s declarations about “economic globalization”, or the behavior of North Korea. The debate, or rather its absence, can be looked at in two ways.

New Order for Old Triangles? The Russia-China-India Matrix

Date de publication
30 March 2017
Accroche

As the US-led international system struggles under the strain of multiple challenges, the complex web of relations between Russia, China, and India will be critical to the formation of a new world order.

Alternative für Deutschland: What risks for Germany?

Date de publication
30 March 2017
Accroche

The AfD - Alternative for Germany – founded in opposition to Angela Merkel’s policy line of supporting southern European countries, has quickly become part of the political family of "right-wing populism" in Europe, with whom it cultivates close ties.

North Korea's Nuclear Posture: an Evolving Challenge for U.S. Deterrence

Date de publication
27 March 2017
Accroche

A more capable, nuclear-armed, North Korea will pose very substantial challenges to the U.S. deterrence posture. 

Trade without Religion between Turkey and Syria

Date de publication
24 March 2017
Accroche

A saying claims that trade has no religion; it even adapts to a war situation, as demonstrated by the real-time reorganisation of trade channels at the Turkish-Syrian border. 

Samir AÏTA
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Chinese Investors in Ethiopia: The Perfect Match?

Date de publication
22 March 2017
Accroche

Since the fall of the Derg regime in 1991, cordial relations have developed between China and Ethiopia, forming a positive political backdrop in front of which the two countries’ interests have increasingly converged.

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Madagascar Dealing with Multi-Faceted Crime

Date de publication
21 March 2017
Accroche

Has Madagascar really emerged from the crisis which started in 2009? In purely formal terms, it is customary to consider that the December 2013 presidential election ended a political sequence of relative institutional paralysis since the coup in March 2009 and the transitional regime then put in place. 

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Electricity storage in a redesigned market

Date de publication
20 March 2017
Accroche

Storage technologies have the potential to significantly support the EU’s electricity system, bringing a number of flexibility services. There are numerous electric energy storage (EES) technologies, tackling different magnitudes in terms of quantity of energy, ramp-up time, duration of discharge, costs, and lifetime. 

Trump and the Crisis of American Democracy

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election is an expression of the crisis of American democracy.

Kissinger, or the Last Diplomat

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

In the second half of the 20th century, Kissinger evokes the fundamental choices underpinning American diplomacy.

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Japan: The Reluctant Cyberpower

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

Japan’s cyberdefenses remain underdeveloped compared to the country’s great reliance on information and communications technology. Despite Japan’s initial slow response to the security challenges emerging from cyberspace, this paper posits that cybersecurity under the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has moved to the core of the country’s national security policy. The 2020 Olympics Games are a major catalyst for this.

Franz-Stefan GADY

Democratic Deconstructions

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

Today’s democratic governments appear less legitimate and their longevity less assured than ever.

With Trump, Time to Reinvent the European Trade Policy

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

The new American administration’s protectionist tendencies need to be taken seriously.

John SOLAL-AROUET Denis TERSEN

Living with Russia

Date de publication
10 March 2017
Accroche

Russia’s power comes, in part, from the West’s errors and illusions in the wake of the Cold War.

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The Steam Coal Market in 2016: the Supply Shock

Date de publication
08 March 2017
Accroche

Surprising coal markets: while the world coal demand is diminishing, the steam coal price doubled in 2016. After five years of uninterrupted price decline and a sluggish world demand, this strong price hike might appear as paradoxical. This paper explains the principal reasons for this situation.

Kadyrovism: Hardline Islam as a Tool of the Kremlin?

Date de publication
01 March 2017
Accroche

This paper analyses the phenomenon of “Kadyrovism” as a relatively coherent ideology which possesses its own internal logic and propaganda tools and which reflects the reality of Ramzan Kadyrov’s rule, based on submission to Vladimir Putin while also being marked by provocative acts directed at the paternal figure of the Russian President.

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Three Years of China’s New Silk Roads: From Words to (Re)action?

Date de publication
28 February 2017
Accroche

More than three years have already passed since China’s new silk roads were launched by President Xi Jinping. When he first mentioned the idea in an autumn 2013 speech in Kazakhstan, questions quickly emerged on the meaning of this general concept, which soon became widely promoted through a large-scale and well-coordinated public diplomacy strategy both in and outside China.

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The introduction of the minimum wage in Germany: a first assessment

Date de publication
24 February 2017
Accroche

Germany introduced a minimum wage on January 1st, 2015 – a first in a country that had hitherto left it to the social partners to agree on salaries. This introduction came after vivid debates between those who fought against ever deeper inequalities and those who defended the nation’s competitiveness. 

Brigitte LESTRADE
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A Point of View on the UK Energy Policy

Date de publication
16 February 2017
Accroche

The United Kingdom chose to leave the European Union at a crucial moment for the Energy Union, and in a period when the necessity of leading a coherent energy transition is strongly shared by EU countries. In the light of this conjunction of events, this study analyses the determining factors of the UK energy policy. 

Bruno LESCOEUR

The NPT and the Origins of NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Arrangements

Date de publication
07 February 2017
Accroche

Russia has recently accused the United States and NATO Allies of violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) by arguing that NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements are not permitted under the Treaty.

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Japan and France: Slowly but Surely Moving Forward on Security Cooperation

Date de publication
06 February 2017
Accroche

Despite being geographically distant, France and Japan share a number of converging interests.

Central Asia: Facing Radical Islam

Date de publication
02 February 2017
Accroche

Twenty-five years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the declaration of independence by the republics of Central Asia, the issue of guaranteeing stability and security still looms large on Central Asia’s agenda.

 

Erlan KARINE
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Japan’s Coast Guard and Maritime Self-Defense Force in the East China Sea: Can a Black-and-White System Adapt to a Gray-Zone Reality?

Date de publication
31 January 2017
Accroche

This essay examines the need for growing coordination between the Japan Coast Guard (JCG) and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) to better cope with gray-zone situations.

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Cyber Attacks and Energy Infrastructures: Anticipating Risks

Date de publication
31 January 2017
Accroche

This study analyses the likelihood of cyber attacks against European energy infrastructures and their potential consequences, particularly on the electricity grid. It also delivers a comparative analysis of measures taken by different European countries to protect their industries and collaborate within the European Union. 

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France vs. Jihadism: The Republic in a New Age of Terror

Date de publication
30 January 2017
Accroche

This paper assesses the current state of the jihadist threat to France, as well as the French authorities’ security response. With the upcoming presidential election, 2017 will be a decisive year for the country. Terrorism will be at the heart of the campaign and ISIS will most likely try to strike again.

Making Sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters

Date de publication
30 January 2017
Accroche

Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions.

Vivien PERTUSOT Luis SIMON

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