SWAPO: The Beginning of the Political Challenge
Increasingly, the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) is on shaky ground, caught between internal factionalism and external resentment. Whereas no major new political party has emerged since independence, opposition parties are gradually gaining support, mainly among young voters, and now control the three most important economic centers, weakening SWAPO's thirty-year one-party domination.
SWAPO’s old guard is engaged in hardened leadership battles, while SWAPO Youth League members claim populist reforms. Rival SWAPO members are openly calling for Geingob’s government to be recalled. It has become commonplace that SWAPO hardliners make direct and veiled threats towards their opponents. In this context, the 2019 ballots reflected a major slump in the party’s popularity. SWAPO presidential candidate Hage Geingob was elected with a majority of 56%, way down from his 86% of the vote in 2014.
For the first time, the party lost its two thirds majority in the National Assembly, as well as its dominance in the local councils during the 2020 local authority election. This slump came as a result of Namibia’s economic woes, high-level corruption scandals, and internal power struggles, and younger and more discerning voting public. SWAPO has become a business empire that benefits its elite patrons and clients, a far cry from its role in gaining Namibia’s independence in 1990 and its promise to deliver comprehensive social and economic development. As a result, young voters of the so-called “born free” generation and Namibia’s rapidly urbanizing population are shifting political dynamics as they clamor for accountable leadership and better economic opportunities.
Despite growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party, no major new political party has emerged since independence. However, opposition parties are gradually gaining support, mainly among young voters, and now control the three most important economic centers – Windhoek, Walvis Bay and Swakopmund. After thirty years at the helm, SWAPO’s one-party domination has weakened, and is now challenged to earn its place in the future.
This paper analyzes these new political dynamics through the results of the last national and local elections. It explains the reasons behind SWAPO’s decline, and their chances of holding onto power.
Available in:
Regions and themes
ISBN / ISSN
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
SWAPO: The Beginning of the Political Challenge
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.
The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.
The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Rebooting Italy's Africa Policy: Making the Mattei Plan Work
Against the backdrop of increasing anti-French rhetoric across parts of Francophone Africa, the relative failure of the counterinsurgency operation in the central Sahel (Operation Barkhane) and diplomatic rifts with several Sahelian countries, Paris has been rethinking its relationship with the continent for several years now. As a former imperial power that has seen its colonial domain in Africa gain independence between 1956 (Morocco-Tunisia) and 1977 (Djibouti), France has invented two successive roles for itself in Africa since 1960, particularly in French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa.
The dilemma of the Franco-African military relationship: reinvent or turn the page?
The origins of military presence and cooperation in Africa can be traced back to the tacit decolonization pact between the countries of French-speaking Africa. This cooperation led to the creation of African armies in the former colonies, as part of a project to prevent the spread of communism and maintain France's influence in the newly independent countries.
The Evolution of City Diplomacy in Africa: Impact, Potential, and Ongoing Challenges of African Cities’ International Activities.
Over the past decades, African cities have ranked among the leading players in the evolution of city diplomacy. Indeed, municipalities across the continent have gone beyond simply adapting to shifting trends in international cooperation. They have been shaping the current partnership approach that sees local authorities worldwide working together to pursue shared goals and address common urban challenges such as climate change, migration, and social justice.
The High Authority for Peacebuilding (HACP) in Niger 2011-2023. Placing the State at the heart of conflict prevention and management.
Like other Sahelian countries, Niger has been affected by terrorism for almost two decades now. This issue has highlighted both the limits of these countries’ security systems and, more profoundly, their inability to offer stability to the populations of certain parts of the country. In a way, these “jihadized insurgencies” are a continuity of groups that regularly take up arms against central states.