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Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur

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Notes du Cerfa, No. 179, Ifri, September 2024
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This policy paper analyses the geopolitical and economic significance of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU’s new European Economic Security Strategy.

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Mercosur National Flag Against a Background of Flags of Other Countries and The Flag of the European Union
Mercosur National Flag Against a Background of Flags of Other Countries and The Flag of the European Union
shutterstock Ifri ©
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In view of geopolitical changes and growing protectionist tendencies of large economies such as China and the USA, closer co-operation with the Global South, including the Mercosur countries, is considered necessary. Germany and France have reorganized their trade policies, in particular through a joint industrial strategy and a derisking strategy to reduce economic vulnerabilities, which could represent an opportunity to bring together traditionally different views of trade policy.

The Mercosur agreement offers the EU the opportunity to deepen its economic relations with South America and reduce dependencies on other global trading powers. This could be achieved by opening up European markets for South American agricultural commodities and the export of European industrial goods. The aim is to promote bilateral trade and investment and reduce trade barriers, also in order to position the EU as a serious alternative trading partner to China.

The policy paper concludes that the Mercosur agreement could be an essential building block for the EU’s economic security in a fragmented world, provided that the different national interests within the EU are harmonized and a clear strategy is developed to overcome geopolitical challenges.

 

  • This note was written in partnership with the IW Köln. The German Economic Institute (IW) is a private economic research institute in Germany, which is an advocate of a liberal economic and social order. We work to improve understanding of how business and society function and interact.
     

Simon Gerards Iglesias, Economist and Economic Historian, The Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, Cologne.

Marie Krpata, Research Fellow at the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) at the French Institute of International Relations – Ifri.

Ana Helena Palermo Kuss, Economist and Advisor to the President at ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim.


This publication is available in:

French: « Entre “autonomie stratégique” et “changement d’époque”. L’importance économique et stratégique des relations commerciales entre l’UE et le Mercosur ».
 

German: "Zwischen „strategischer Autonomie” und „Zeitenwende”: Die Bedeutung des Handels zwischen der EU und Mercosur" on the Website of Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW).

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Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur

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Author(s)
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Marie KRPATA

Marie KRPATA

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The Pariser Platz (Paris Square) on the east side of the Brandenburg Gate at Berlin, Germany
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.

Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.

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Under construction: Europe’s economic repositioning in a fragmented international order

Date de publication
03 June 2026
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„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell:  Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.

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Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts

Date de publication
30 June 2026
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Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.

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France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift

Date de publication
11 June 2026
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Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.

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Reviving the German Economy: Balancing Economic, Social, and Defense Priorities

Date de publication
19 May 2026
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Germany is facing fundamental challenges to its economic and social model and is seeking a new course. The German post-war model was hugely successful, leading to economic strength and prosperity over many decades, but now it is steadily faltering. The previously latent fear of deindustrialization is becoming more concrete, particularly due to the weakening of a key sector: the automotive industry.

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Mercosur National Flag Against a Background of Flags of Other Countries and The Flag of the European Union
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How can this study be cited?

Simon Gerards IGLESIAS, Marie KRPATA, Ana Helena PALERMO KUSS, « Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur », Papers, Notes du Cerfa, Ifri, 11 September 2024.
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Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur