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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

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Russie.Eurasie.Visions
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It may appear that Russia is equally dissatisfied with both Western security’s presence in and its departure from Afghanistan planned for 2014, but whether the Western withdrawal is seen as more of a gain a loss depends on how Moscow itself assesses and balances its own security concerns in the region: instability, extremism and narcotics. 

Corps analyses

At the same time the spill-over of violence and extremism does not pose a direct threat to Russia itself for whom the main implications of U.S./NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan are in Central Asia. Moscow’s main strategy to address potential cross-border repercussions for its Central Asian allies and the increase in Western back-up and transit-related presence in Central Asia is to intensify security and economic cooperation with Russia’s CSTO partners in the region. This will be coupled with keeping a certain distance from Afghanistan, despite the large scale challenge posed by the inflow of Afghan heroin—the most direct Afghanistan-related security concern for Russia. Regarding drug control and counternarcotics in particular, Russia will have to rely on whatever government will be in place in Afghanistan. This explains Moscow’s genuine interest in increasing functionality and legitimacy of the Afghan state, which can only be achieved through an intra-Afghan political process and power-sharing arrangement.

 

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978-2-36567-158-3

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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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How the Russian Army Changed its Concept of War, 1993-2022

Date de publication
23 May 2023
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The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?

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Russia's Nuclear Deterrence Put to the Test by the War in Ukraine

Date de publication
06 October 2025
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From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.

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Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?

Date de publication
22 September 2025
Accroche

On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.

Florent PARMENTIER
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War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism

Date de publication
19 June 2025
Accroche

In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government. 

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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia