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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

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Russie.NEI.Visions
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It may appear that Russia is equally dissatisfied with both Western security’s presence in and its departure from Afghanistan planned for 2014, but whether the Western withdrawal is seen as more of a gain a loss depends on how Moscow itself assesses and balances its own security concerns in the region: instability, extremism and narcotics. 

Corps analyses

At the same time the spill-over of violence and extremism does not pose a direct threat to Russia itself for whom the main implications of U.S./NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan are in Central Asia. Moscow’s main strategy to address potential cross-border repercussions for its Central Asian allies and the increase in Western back-up and transit-related presence in Central Asia is to intensify security and economic cooperation with Russia’s CSTO partners in the region. This will be coupled with keeping a certain distance from Afghanistan, despite the large scale challenge posed by the inflow of Afghan heroin—the most direct Afghanistan-related security concern for Russia. Regarding drug control and counternarcotics in particular, Russia will have to rely on whatever government will be in place in Afghanistan. This explains Moscow’s genuine interest in increasing functionality and legitimacy of the Afghan state, which can only be achieved through an intra-Afghan political process and power-sharing arrangement.

 

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978-2-36567-158-3

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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation

Date de publication
23 September 2024
Accroche

At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development.

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The South Caucasus: A New Strategic Space?

Date de publication
10 September 2024
Accroche

The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.

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Russia in the Arctic: The End of Illusions and the Emergence of Strategic Realignments

Date de publication
31 July 2024
Accroche

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered profound changes in the Arctic region, the consequences of which remain uncertain in the long term.

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Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order

Date de publication
17 June 2024
Accroche

The world has rarely seemed more disorderly than it is today. But in this anarchic environment, some things are constant. 

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Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia