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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?
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A new technology trend, the development of natural gas vehicles, is emerging in the transport sector. 

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While not new this technology is now being simultaneously revived by the discovery of significant amounts of unconventional gas, by the rise of oil prices, and by the decreased confidence in the sustainability of nuclear technology (and subsequent rising electricity prices in Europe). Natural gas could provide a path to a lower carbon intensive transport sector in both developed and developing countries. Gas is cheaper and less polluting than oil. It emits significantly less local pollutants than diesel and less CO2 than gasoline. Historically present in Italy, South America, Iran and Pakistan natural gas vehicles are emerging in other countries: in some European countries, in the United States, in the Chinese provinces of Shaanxi and Henan, and in India. Asia and developing countries are expected to be responsible for a large share of the car market growth in the next years and consequently for a significant share of transport CO2 emissions. The adoption of a given technology there could impact global markets and global CO2 emissions significantly. While the trend is still loose, this paper responds to the possibility that this technology will expand: what would it imply? would it compete with the development of the electric vehicle? is it desirable?

It appears that the advantages of natural gas vehicles are not as clear cut as they seem. Environmentally, they are beneficial only to countries with little -if no- CO2 emissions standards. Several issues including the development of costly infrastructures are likely to raise costs. Natural gas vehicles development could also slow down the roll out of electric vehicles, hence delaying hopes of smoothing the integration of renewables into the power grid through the use of car batteries" storage capacity. But the main concern is the availability of cheap gas itself, on the basis of which this technology shift could take place. Markets for gas are tightening, price increases have already been announced in many places, and the development of unconventional resources is still surrounded by uncertainties in regards to its cost and timeframe. But even more, gas might be more efficiently used for power generation. The trend is however still nascent. The targeted markets are niche markets, and many bottlenecks including the determination of some governments to promote the electric vehicle instead, would have to be overcome before variants of natural gas transportation technologies can sustainably and significantly secure a large share of vehicle fleets.

 

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978-2-86592-899-6

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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The Aluminum Value Chain: A Key Component of Europe’s Strategic Autonomy and Carbon Neutrality

Date de publication
29 July 2024
Accroche

The United States of America (US), Canada and the European Union (EU) all now consider aluminum as strategic. This metal is indeed increasingly used, especially for the energy transition, be it for electric vehicles (EVs), electricity grids, wind turbines or solar panels.

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The EU Green Deal External Impacts: Views from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States

Date de publication
29 May 2024
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Ahead of June 2024 European elections and against the backdrop of growing geopolitical and geoeconomic frictions, if not tensions, between the EU and some of its largest trade partners, not least based on the external impacts of the European Green Deal (EGD), Ifri chose to collect views and analyses from leading experts from China, India, South Africa, Türkiye and the United States of America (US) on how they assess bilateral relations in the field of energy and climate, and what issues and opportunities they envisage going forward. 

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Electric Vehicles: A Strong and Still Understated Performance

Date de publication
01 March 2024
Accroche

Electric vehicles (EVs) are better for the climate – even in worst-case scenarios. Across its life cycle, a typical European electric car produces less greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutants or noise than its petrol or diesel equivalent. Emissions are usually higher in the production phase, but these are more than offset over time by lower emissions in the use phase. According to the European Environment Agency’s report on electric vehicles, life cycle GHG emissions of EVs are about 17-30% lower than those of petrol and diesel cars.

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How Can the Green Deal Adapt to a Brutal World?

Date de publication
25 January 2024
Accroche

The European Green Deal has not been planned for the current extraordinarily deteriorated internal and external environment. Russia’s war in Ukraine, higher interest rates, inflation, strained public finances, weakened value chains, and lack of crucial skills pose unprecedented challenges. 

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?
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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?