Abstract:

If there is a country that will profit from the Afghan crisis, it is Iran. Rid of a troublesome neighbour, which portrayed the image of a radical Islam, Iranis celebrating the return of stability to Kabul. Twenty-three years after the revolution that ended the Shah's regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran isdeveloping its relations with the West, and hopes to represent the face ofmoderate Islam. The reforming president Khatami, who was re-elected lastAugust, finds himself once again confronting the obstacles that have been put in place by the conservative clergy in recent years. The followers of the supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who remains the dominating force in the regime, still control the police, the army and the judiciary. But how can they keep control of a society that is becoming more and more active, 50% of which is under the age of 20 and which rejects the uneasycombination of religion and politics? This is the principle problem that thosein power are trying to face. Today in Iranian society, three large groups rep-resentreal forces that favour a transition to democracy: intellectuals, women and youth.


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