The latter has poorly managed a series of regional elections, and the Chancellor is well-placed to win the September elections. But she must think about preparing for an unavoidable result. Even forging a new coalition will not be easy, with the refugee crisis having pushed her closest allies, and part of the public opinion, toward the right.

Hans Stark is Secretary general of the Study Committee for Franco-German Relations (Cerfa).

Article published in Politique étrangère, Vol. 82, No. 3, Autumn 2017.