The recent crises over oil & gas deliveries from Russia to Ukraine and Belarus have triggered alarm and virulent criticism in the West. 

Russia is an unavoidable actor in world energy geopolitics. It is also the biggest energy partner of a European Union (EU) that is becoming ever more dependent on outside sources for its energy needs. However, the future of Russia's largest company-Gazprom-and the development of its future production capacities are at the center of a complex financial and political game dominated by numerous uncertainties, including Gazprom's actual reserves, its ability to invest in exploration and production, and its very capacity to develop production. Indeed, back in state hands, Russian gas and oil companies-Gazprom included-do not appear to be in a position to meet their future production commitments. Gazprom's ability to honor its contracts with gas companies in the EU is in fact already the subject of numerous interrogations.

Russia is now in the final negotiation phase regarding its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Discussions have been held over the past fourteen years and have contributed indisputably to the transformation of the Russian economy and the modernization of its legislature. If there are still unanswered questions at the start of 2007, the unbalanced nature of the negotiations runs the risk of Russia having to make further concessions to its partners in order to speed up the agreement's conclusion. In the longer term, the main challenge faced by Russian authorities is to ensure that documents that are already in force are transposed.

In 1996, the Russian Federation joined the Council of Europe both in spite of and owing to its democratic failings. Accession was, in fact, seen as a step toward democratic conversion. Ten years an, as the Council is presided by Russia for the first time, an initial appraisal can be made using the following questions as guideline: to what extend has the Council of Europe influenced Russia, and to what extend has Russia - taking into account observed regressions - modified the current nature of the Council?

Concerted high politics in the absence of angels? European intelligence governance and democratic accountability

Proliferation Papers, No. 15, Fall 2006

Thierry de Montbrial