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NATO and Russia: Post-Georgia Threat Perceptions

Date de publication
12 May 2009
Accroche

The 2008 war in Georgia is but a milestone on the downward curve in NATO-Russia relations, one that has been characterized by misunderstandings, misplaced expectations and missed opportunities. This is not a new Cold War, but there is an obvious need for new ideas rather than repackaged old ones. NATO has to be sensitive to genuine Russian security concerns, and the latter should appreciate that manipulation, intimidation and attempts at dividing the Alliance are not shortcuts to superpower restoration. There is ample room for cooperation if the right lessons are learned, the gap between rhetoric and reality is reduced, and policies are governed by patience and pragmatism.

 

Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US's Neighborhood

Date de publication
27 April 2009
Accroche

Russia's policy in Latin America is not a new policy but reflects long-term aspirations to assert itself as a global power and advance the idea of a multipolar world. It is a fundamentally geopolitical approach directed against the US with an economic component, rather than an economic approach to foreign policy with strategic objectives. Moscow's 2008 initiatives in the region reflected enhanced capabilities which are now in decline due to the global economic crisis. The real threat that Moscow poses to the region stems from its weapons sales to Venezuela, which the latter is already using in support of insurgency in Colombia if not elsewhere.

What are the prospects after the nomination of Zimbabwe's national unity government?

Date de publication
24 April 2009
Accroche

Summary: Following repeated bouts of political violence, which were exacerbated by the presidential and legislative elections of 29 March 2008, opposition members and the government of Zimbabwe undertook lengthy and difficult negotiations to put an end to the unrest. These negotiations resulted in the creation of a new national unity government, which was sworn in on 13 February 2009. This marks the end of a long political battle between the regime of President Robert Mugabe and his opponents, of whom the new Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai had been the main spokesman. In a country on the brink of economic collapse, the new government faces enormous challenges. The economic and social balance remains precarious, and the political climate is still fraught with many rivalries. Thierry Vircoulon, associate researcher of IFRI's Africa Program comments on the crisis in Zimbabwe today, and delivers some thoughts on what we may expect from the new national unity government.

Obama and Russia: Facing the Heritage of the Bush Years

Date de publication
17 April 2009
Accroche

Barack Obama's recent overtures toward Russia show a desire to break away from the Bush years, which were characterized by a profound deterioration in American-Russian relations. To gauge the chances of success for this openness, we must reexamine the Bush legacy weighing on the resumption of relations, especially on their strategic dimension. Indeed, direct exchanges between the two countries over the course of the past eight years have increasingly turned towards head-on opposition. Indirect exchanges between the two states in Russia's neighborhood also display contradictory influences, with Iran and Georgia bringing to light deep-rooted differences fuelled by cold war-style rhetoric. In other words, even if Barack Obama appears to be imposing his own style by reorienting America's foreign policy, his scope for action is partly limited by the legacy of his predecessor.

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